2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 8

Pick 1: Cincinnati -1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Green Bay +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Everybody calm down. That's what my friend reminded me to do after Sunday night. I was extremely disappointed with last week's results, as you probably were. The important thing to remember is that this is a long term strategy and the goal is to win money in the long run (end of the year). Although at this point we're back were we started, there is still a lot of football to be played and good money to potentially win. I've been here before and have bounced back. This week I removed the night games from being premium to provide the maximum number of free NFL point spread picks .

This week we use 18% of bankroll again split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $600 per game. Below are the computer-based NFL point spread predictions for week 8:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI -1 -6.0 -5.0 65.7%
GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -1 3.0 4.0 59.6%
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA 5 2.6 -2.4 55.3%
CHICAGO @ NEW ENGLAND -6.5 -8.0 -1.5 54.3%
DETROIT - ATLANTA 4 5.5 1.5 53.4%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS -3 -0.5 2.5 52.3%
ST LOUIS @ KANSAS CITY -7 -12.7 -5.7 51.4%
MIAMI @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 5.9 0.4 50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER -8 -7.7 0.3 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS -10 -10.4 -0.4 50.0%
OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND -7 -4.5 2.5 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ ARIZONA -2.5 -1.3 1.2 49.3%
MINNESOTA @ TAMPA BAY -3 -7.4 -4.4 48.6%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE 1.5 -0.6 -2.1 48.5%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.


Unknown said…
Jaime - you may want to begin removing the confidences from the picks you are selling. Cheers
TotalBS said…
Let's see...

Let's see how I do.
Unknown said…
This comment has been removed by the author.
TotalBS said…
0-3 I'm guessing.
Unknown said…
We won't know, until the Buy Premium Picks is un-greyed out...
Unknown said…
:-( :-(...oh well....there's another week coming up!!! :-) :-)
Hope they become un-greyed out soon. I love doing " What if " i did X analysis
Unknown said…
Well if you went 1-2, I guess I can't always make out the picks looking at the confidences... or the visitor/home had the same/similar confidence for two different lines.

johnbart said…
Don't let a couple of bad weeks get you down. This gig is all about the long term and you'll have just as many good weeks ahead. It takes a lot of balls to put your picks and opinions in the public eye for people to judge so kudos to you.

I'm fairly new to your blog so I don't know the details of your model but picking only 3 games a week you're going to have bigger swings in both directions. Have you thought about looking into totals to try and smooth out some of that variance? There are definitely some edges to be found on that front.
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Jaime said…
@johnbart - thank you very much for your kind words. I have been down recently but also been down this road before. Really need to bounce back soon.

Your suggestions for totals is a good one, I'll give it some analytical thought. I don't want to lower the threshold or bet on every game, that would defeat the purpose.

I wasn't able to run the algorithm last night, will post picks tonight.