2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 10

Pick 1: Denver -12 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Philadelphia -6 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Arizona -7 correct NFL point spread pick

That was a great bounce back with a 3-1 ATS. The one loss was way off with Miami destroying the sinking Chargers, but at least in only counts as one loss. Indianapolis also bounced back with strength as they dominated the Giants on the road. Staying on course with the data and not being influenced by emotions and recent games is important to any bettor. This week we also have 3 solid NFL picks. The models are unanimously picking these teams and picks. As always, below is the list of free NFL point spread picks for the non-premium picks and members should be receiving the premium picks shortly.

This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $600 per game. You can see that so far we've had better success in the front half of the season where bankroll was around 12%-15% and now it's been consistently at 18%. This explains why we have hardly any ROI but the ATS is at 54.8%. See below for a list for free NFL point spread predictions. The 4 premium picks have already been sent to all premium members.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER @ OAKLAND 12 20.2 8.2 60.6%
CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA -6 -11.8 -5.8 58.4%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA -7 -12.5 -5.5 58.4%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ORLEANS -5 1.2 6.2 55.5%
PITTSBURGH @ NY JETS 6 3.7 -2.3 55.3%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -2.3 5.2 55.0%
TENNESSEE @ BALTIMORE -10 -13.0 -3.0 53.8%
KANSAS CITY @ BUFFALO 2.5 9.9 7.4 52.8%
NY GIANTS @ SEATTLE -9.5 -15.9 -6.4 50.0%
MIAMI @ DETROIT -3 1.5 4.5 50.0%
DALLAS - JACKSONVILLE 6.5 4.8 -1.7 49.7%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI -6.5 -10.9 -4.4 49.5%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY 1.5 -6.5 -8.0 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

18 comments:

Jonathon Grant said...

Jaime - following up to your last post in the Week 9 discussion. Do you have any concerns about the Philly game with Foles not playing?

Jaime Brugueras said...

Yes. It shouldn't have been a pick. Too late. First mistake like this of the year. He's even on my fantasy team and I still put the puck up ughhh

TotalBS said...

For what it's worth, I have a power rating system I designed that trys to find value based on the Vegas line and what this system says the line should be according to my own data analysis.

Value Plays On:
Philly our line is 12.2 (With Foles)
Arizona our line is 12
Denver our line is 10.5 so no play.

The squares will be all over Denver, the sharps will be waiting for the line to move a bit higher then come in late on Oakland.

Jaime Brugueras said...

TotalBS - thanks for sharing

Jonathon Grant said...

Total - I do the same, and had similar results. I'm at work and don't have the lines with me. I think I had Philly and Arizona by a few more than you, but my Denver line was also around 10.5.

Jaime, I hope you don't mind if I post my email on here, but I wouldn't mind discussing models further with TotalBS. Shoot me an email at jgrant1094@gmail.com. Maybe we can find improvements to our models using our combined knowledge.

TotalBS said...

For tonights game I have it Cincy by 4, so some slight value on Cleveland.

For Sunday, Tampa Bay +1.5 has a lot of value.

Good luck to all!

Jaime Brugueras said...

Plus Demeco Ryan is also out for the PHI game. Definitely a game to stay away from. I can't believe I put a pick on Mark Sanchez. I'll be really lucky if PHI clears. If you haven't bet yet, stay away from this game.

TotalBS said...

Foles wasn't exactly lighting it up, nowhere near last years performance. Sanchez will be fine in this offense I don't see a huge drop off.

Jonathon Grant said...
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Jonathon Grant said...

I've got Cincy by 10 tonight, but I'm not terribly comfortable with it.

My model in the games you/Jaime consider value:
Philly by 15 (with Foles)
Arizona by 12.5
Denver by 12
Atlanta by 1.5

My value plays would be:
Miami over Detroit
New Orleans over San Francisco
Arizona over St. Louis

Philly would have been, but I wouldn't play it due to the injury.

Good luck

johnbart said...

So does everyone here have a math model of their own? :)

My model has the following lines on the top 3 games:

@OAK +8.1
@PHI -10
@ARI -9.3

Best of luck all.

johnbart said...

What feeds do you guys use for stats?

I use the NFLgame python library that parses the Gamecenter play by play feed for NFL stats but right now I don't have any other sources for other sports. I'd love to get something similar for NCAA football.

Jonathon Grant said...

johnbart - I'll share my approach privately with anyone who wants to reciprocate. I don't want to spam this thread with my email address, but you can find it in this weeks discussion if you want to discuss further.

ce8d632a-647c-11e3-94d3-000bcdcb2996 said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Jaime Brugueras said...

Thank you Arizona for an awesome comeback. If they would have not sacked Palmer I'm not sure it would've happened. 2-0 going into tonight's game.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Nice finish. Only first perfect week of the season.

johnbart said...

Congrats on the nice week.

What numbers do you use that made your Denver line so high? I have a couple of different models and none of them had Denver over the Vegas line let alone by 8 points.

Do you use situational things like ATS or just straight up boxscore numbers?

Jonathon Grant said...

I can't imagine we're going to get an answer on that one! Logically though, if you were to pull some data on the two teams, some of the variables that have the largest differences are likely being used in his model.