2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 17

Pick 1: Detroit +7.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Diego -1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Carolina +3 correct NFL point spread pick
I'm not sure how I'm still above 50%. It's been 3 losing weeks in a row and 4 of the last 5. It wasn't until week 10 perfect picks that I haven't seen profits. The disappointment is unbearing. Need to snap this streak big time.

This week we have 3 premium picks and we are keeping the bankroll at 25%. This gives us a bet of $650 per game for this week.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -1.2 6.3 61.7%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY 1 4.5 3.5 59.6%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA -3 7.3 10.3 58.9%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH -3.5 6.7 10.2 55.2%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE 7 19.1 12.1 54.5%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY 4 7.2 3.2 53.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS -2.5 6.0 8.5 52.9%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON 4 2.9 -1.1 52.1%
OAKLAND @ DENVER -14 -18.6 -4.6 51.8%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE -12 -15.5 -3.5 50.8%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 -3.5 3.0 50.0%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA -6 -6.2 -0.2 50.0%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND -5 -11.7 -6.7 50.0%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE -13.5 -13.0 0.5 49.7%
NY JETS @ MIAMI -6 -9.9 -3.9 49.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON -9.5 -16.8 -7.3 46.1%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

3 comments:

Jonathon Grant said...

Good luck this week Jaime.

Top picks in the SuperContest are:

SD+3 6-0
CAR+4 6-0
WAS+6 5-0
JAX+9.5 3-0
PHI+3 5-2
IND-7 2-0
SF-6 2-0
OAK+14 2-0
CIN+3.5 2-0
MIN-6.5 1-0
NO-4 1-0
GB-7.5 2-1
BUF+4.5 2-1

Regrettably, I won't be making it to Lambeau today. The SO's passport was expired, and I think I'd get to much grief leaving her home alone with the kids.

On the bright side, I'm six games up in my ATS pool going into this week. One game back in multiple Pick'em pools, so hopefully SD and CAR come through for me, and not everyone else picks them too.

Good luck to everyone in Week 17.

johnbart said...

My lines for the top 3 this week:

@GB (-8.7)
@KC (-7.8)
@ATL (-7.4)

Solid edges for all of the home teams vs the Vegas line. I would stay away from the KC pick given their QB issues.

Good luck all.

RJW said...

For Playoff Picks
Check out www.nflocksmith.com !