2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Seattle -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Francisco +6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Miami +4 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Buffalo -5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

After spending plenty of time doing research and enjoying the games (did you witness the Denver Vegas moment?!), my wife asked that I sell the picks. She understands the value that a VP in Analytics can provide to sports investors so she's encouraging me to do so (or else). I have posted 5 Reasons Why You Want to Buy NFLpickles' Picks on the subscription page. They include my 100% guarantee, my record, experience, transparency, focus on NFL point spreads and affordable prices.

For only $199 you get all the picks until the end of the season + playoffs. These type of picks go for about $500 in other places. These places try to sell you picks in every sport you can imagine by sports fanatics and not experienced data scientists.

Get ALL 2014 NFLpickles' Point Spread Picks
100% Guarantee - If all picks go under 50% ATS, I'll give you your money back

Many of you have followed me since I started in 2007 and know my record: 4 winning seasons in the past 6 years, and one break even. All my stats by year are on the side bar and you can access every pick I've made since 2007, that's transparency. Do notice that I've kept the majority of the picks free, but premium picks are only provided to members.

We raise the bankroll this week to use 18% of bankroll split evenly across 4 games giving us a bet of $490 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions for week 7:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS 7 11.1 4.1 61.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ DENVER -6.5 -2.7 3.8 58.2%
MIAMI @ CHICAGO -4 -1.5 2.5 58.1%
MINNESOTA @ BUFFALO -5.5 -9.8 -4.3 58.0%
ARIZONA @ OAKLAND 4 8.8 4.8 56.7%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO -4 -3.0 1.0 55.5%
CLEVELAND @ JACKSONVILLE 6 8 2/0 55.3%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND * -10 -14.3 -4.3 54.3%
TENNESSEE @ WASHINGTON -6 -7.2 -1.2 53.3%
HOUSTON @ PITTSBURGH * -3.5 -3.7 -0.2 50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT -3 -3.3 -0.3 50.0%
CAROLINA @ GREEN BAY -7 -5.0 2.0 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 -1.5 2.0 48.3%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS -6.5 -10.2 -3.7 47.8%
ATLANTA @ BALTIMORE -7 -11.0 -4.0 47.8%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

34 comments:

Adrian Villarreal said...

Your wife is pissing me off ;(. Well looks like I'll just remove this site from my favorites thanks for all the data you've provided and good luck this year. Hope you make some money but I'm not buying Jaime.

Kenneth said...

This was nice while it lasted, I will not be purchasing. The value at $199 simply is not there, good luck.

JP said...

Well I don't sports bet and just use this site in one of my pick em pools... Where 1st place is barely more than a membership here so it looks like I'm SOL.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Thanks for your comments guys. For those that use this page for a pick'em league, you can still access 10 of the 15 point spread predictions every week.

For those betting, you need to be at certain levels for this to be valuable. My suggestion is that if you're not doing at least $50 a game, this might not be worth it.

Otherwise, getting access to these picks will help you in decision making. There's a lot of value here if compared to other services out there. Good luck everyone!

Stubbs said...

As a young mathematician I am sad because this was so great to help people beat the sports books. Now you might as well be one if your in it to make money off regular joes go ahead, but like most people dont have the bankroll to keep this profitable. I wish you would rethink this. Also why is a "Premium Pick" have a 50% confidence interval thats not very Premium. I know its a lot of work, but the people you were helping did good and brought happiness. Now if i were to pay you and i lose would take all the fun out of it. I still have great respect for you even doing this in the first place so Good Luck ill try figuring out the picks based my skill.

Stubbs said...

Another thought if your going to do premium picks I think only the picks that your actually putting your money on should count. Cause at 5 picks a week through six weeks you should have bet 30 times but your record only shows 20 bets so if your not going to put your money on the bet then why make people pay for it just wondering.

James Onken said...

I just found this site last week. I have sent it to almost all my friends who were excited to check it out and monitor. Though you do have years of experience it takes awhile for new people to gain trust. For example what happened in 2011? What if 2014 the year I pay is like 2011? I dont have enough to start buying in after 1 week of knowing about you. I am very disappointed too. I usually bet like 20 a game for fun so the 200 makes it not worth it for me.

Brian Jette said...

I just stumbled upon this site this year and have been following it. Very impressed with the results, but I can't see paying. Consider this: You average 3.3 high confidence picks per week. 11 weeks of regular season left, so were looking at 36 games that I would bet. Your winning % since 2008 is 55%, which would make us 20-16. At $50/bet, that will leave us with a profit of $120. So after the premium fee, we've actually lost money. While I understand that there's a legitimate chance that you'll win at a higher %, or you may kill it in the playoffs, I'm not willing to pay a premium for the potential of a small profit...too risky. I still would like to thank you for this site and all the free picks you've provided. If I was picking winners at your success rate, I'd want to charge too.

Jonathon Grant said...

For anyone wondering why the Jets/Pats and Texans/Steelers games are premium picks, think about when they are played.

Alan Hibino said...

I echo many of the same sentiments as the previous commenters. I have purchased premium playoff picks in the past but will not be purchasing either.

I would be willing to contribute to a kickstarter fund or something like that to offset the time you put into your data, but I simply do not wager enough to justify $199.

Best of luck, I hope you still have plenty of readers who do purchase your picks...

Alan Hibino said...

When the game is being played is irrelevant...Thursday night, Monday night, who cares when it's being played if it's not above the 57% confidence level. 6 "premium" picks could easily be 4 if they were games that people would actual wager on based on the confidence level

Jonathon Grant said...

Alan, I get what you are saying, but at the same time I wonder why you care about the pick if it's a low percentage play.

RJW said...

Been following you for a few years now Jaime and wish you luck!

Check out nflocksmith.com for free nfl picks and Fanduel lineup suggestions!

Alan Hibino said...

Jonathan, I completely understand what you are saying as well, I just think it's false advertising to say it's a "premium" pick just because the game falls on a Thursday or a Monday night. I believe the term "premium" should be reserved for high percentage plays...

Adrian Villarreal said...

So It's not just me thats kind of bummed. Why would you drop a bomb in the middle of a season? If you wanted to charge you should've done so from the start, just my opinion. RIP NFLPICKLES

Adrian Villarreal said...

If you are charging 200$ for picks just running data , I think you should do a little more like keep injury reports in mind maybe weather etc. things like that.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Good observation Jonathan. I can rename those to TNF, SNF and MNF picks. Adrian, sorry to see you go. I wanted to publicly prove for the first half of the year that the models are working.

It takes a while to "run the data". It is scalable, but requires injury search, expertise and research as well as heavily depending on outlier detection and advanced analytics.

Adrian Villarreal said...

Can we expect consistency when your picks are published like for example every tuesday? I know a couple times last year the picks were put up late even missed a thursday game?

Jaime Brugueras said...

Adrian, I can't control life. But I will do my best to have the picks ready by Tuesday night.

Adrian Villarreal said...

I completely understand where you're coming from it was just a question but thank you for answering

Don Verlench said...

Time is money. Best of luck, but after looking at my portfolio after the market close today, I better keep my money.

FFGeeks said...

I just found your website this season and I am disheartened by your decision to make it a pay site.

I was a little suspicious of your site when you took credit for a win in week 5 when you where the only one who had CLE as a favorite over TEN. (That skewed your winning pct)
The right thing to do would have been to admit your mistake in setting the line.

I doubt you will have a single subscriber to your "premium" information and you will lose hits to your website, which will make it less attractive to potential advertisers.

Jaime Brugueras said...

"I just found your site" that's why you don't trust it. I've been publicly doing this for seven years. Spreads move, sometimes in my favor sometimes not.

RJW said...

In Jaime's defense (Re:FFGeeks)
he still got the pick right based on the spread he used. There's no mistake to admit to lol. And he doesnt even have any advertisements on his site.
Carry on

The Wizard said...

I wish you would reconsider. I think one of the issues here is that people feel duped. I don't remember the exact wording, and I think it might be taken down, but the IMPLICATION (for lack of a better word) was that the regular season was for free. I am not saying you went back on your word (you didn't), but nonetheless, some may feel blindsided.
I am a mathematician also (Masters Degree) and have my own system, and it has picked about 56% over the years. I think you are on to something, and I cannot fault you for wanting to make some money for all the work you do. but heck, there are a few experts who have good reputations that I can get their picks for free on the Hilton contest. I am a small time better, as I suspect many are. I might pay 20 dollars a year for your picks, not that they aren't worth more to some, but they are not worth more to me. good luck.

Jaime Brugueras said...

I am still providing free point spread predictions for 10 of the 15 games.

Hammer said...

10 out of 15? I only count 9 and 5 of those 9 picks you wouldn't even bet your own money nor do you count them towards your own ATS record.

Kourosh Doe said...

Will you be posting the results of your premium picks, for all to see like you've done in previous weeks?

FFGeeks said...

RJW said...
"he still got the pick right based on the spread he used"

Jamie DID NOT get the pick right based on the spread available to every bettor in the world. TEN did not cover 1.5

I could get any pick right if I reversed the spread like Jamie did. What he is asking us to believe is that he found a site that had TEN as a 1.5 pt favorite and ALL the other sites, just coincidently had CLE as the same 1.5 pt favorite. He obviously made a mistake and lost all credibility not admitting to it.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Definitely

Jaime Brugueras said...

Whatever, I'm done discussing that game. I have an image of the bet I made, was going to show you for proof, but then thought that regardless of what I do haters will be haters and should just go elsewhere. Anyone following me for years knows how many times it's gone the other way. It's a function of putting the picks on Tuesday vs last minute on Sunday.

FFGeeks said...

Jamie

I am not a hater. I have actually enjoyed using the information you have provided to improve my picks. (I havent made a dime yet. I play in a pick 4 contest, mostly for enjoyment and bragging rights, and you havent gotten all 4 picks correct yet.)

But you are missing the point.

The fact that you leave this blog up is a credit to your integrity. The fact that your making excuses for a mistake is not.

Jonathon Grant said...

FFG - Give up! I can't say whether Jaime actually saw/placed a bet on CLE-1.5, or if it was a mistake on his end. I pointed this out almost immediately, and he could have very easily acknowledged the mistake at that time, and chosen to bet, or not bet that game. He has been consistent in his story since that time. Also, keep in mind that this isn't a line difference of 3.5 to 6.5, it's -1.5 to 1.5. It's not a true 3 point difference, as the only outcomes he may have "bought" himself were victories by 1 point by either team. By complete coincidence, the outcome ended up being one of those two outcomes.

Also, the final line was Cle-1.5, so if you wanted to place that wager, the opportunity was there. (I realize Jaime uses early lines, but there's still some validity to this point).

I realize you are new to the site, but I have been following it for several years (2009, if not earlier). While having a 0.5 or 1 point difference between the line Jaime posts and what I see available isn't terribly uncommon (and it's not always in his favor), anything larger than that is rare, so he definitely isn't getting an edge by buying himself 3 points frequently. One questionable win isn't enough to supersede his record over the last 6 seasons. His record this year would be 11-8 (58%) this season if the line was different (I presume it would have become a no bet).

If he did make a mistake, he's dug his heels in so far, that it would do him more harm at this point to admit that he made a mistake and that lied countless times defending it. While this didn't work out for President Clinton, there is no Ken Starr who is going to bring forth evidence contradicting what Jaime has claimed. Just accept it, or don't, and move on. END. OF. STORY.

John Mullrooney said...
This comment has been removed by the author.