2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: Denver -2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Seattle +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Diego -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Dallas -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: New England +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

I have no regrets regarding the picks last week. They were solid picks, no emotions, pure data and the right ones given the situation. New England of course was the right pick and also a blowout. Denver should have pull that one off and so should KC. I still think weather wasn't the tipping big factor. Like some of the comments in the post last week, I can't expect to win every week although it would be nice. Models can't and won't account for everything, but one tries to determine the key variables that do drive the predictions and in the long run it should work and pay off. We're now going to week 13 which means that there are still 4 weeks in the regular season and then the playoffs. Plenty of time to come out with huge gains!

This week we have 5 premium picks. I have to get them out on Monday as I will be traveling without my data-crunching computer. Usually too many picks for my taste but it is what it is. I have lost betting Denver the last two weeks and KC is a homedog. SF at home by 1. The SD/BAL makes me a little nervous given that I don't know where the line is, but if I can't remove it. Finally, NE is going to Lambeau. There is one free computer-based predictions that doesn't look too bad and that's Carolina. We have two Thanksgiving night game and two day games on Sunday. Some notable mentions in the free picks include Arizona and Cleveland. This week we raise the bankroll to use 20% split evenly across the 5 NFL games, giving us a bet of about $400 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY 2 5.2 3.2 62.5%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO -1 1.7 2.7 61.0%
SAN DIEGO @ BALTIMORE -4.5 0.9 5.4 59.3%
PHILADEPHIA @ DALLAS -3 -7.0 -4.0 58.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ GREEN BAY -3 4.7 7.7 58.1%
CAROLINA @ MINNESOTA -2.5 2.1 4.4 56.5%
NY GIANTS @ JACKSONVILLE 3 0.4 -2.6 55.8%
OAKLAND @ ST LOUIS -7 -7.7 -0.7 54.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ PITTSBURGH -3 -4.8 -1.8 52.1%
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO -1.5 -7.0 -5.5 50.0%
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA 2.5 12.3 9.8 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ TAMPA BAY 4 12.6 8.6 49.9%
WASHINGTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -10 -10.1 -0.1 48.4%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT -7 -4.1 2.9 48.2%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON -6 -9.9 -3.9 47.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

31 comments:

johnbart said...

My lines for the 5 games:

@KC : -4.7
@SF : -1.5
@BAL : -4.9
@DAL : -3.6
@GB : -3.3

I'm pretty much in agreement with the Vegas line in all of them except DEN@KC but I'm against DEN pretty much every week given how inflated their numbers can be. Across the board the early Vegas numbers are looking pretty good this week. We'll see if they provide some more edges later in the week.

Best of luck all.

Don Verlench said...

No Miami/New York Jets?

m k said...

Where's the Miami/NY game?

Jaime Brugueras said...

When I pulled the spreads, that game may not have been posted. I can't do it now.

TotalBS said...

My Power Rating System had a nice Week last week, and overall it is showing very solid results for picks with value of 3 or more:

Value PICK
0.2 PHI
0.5 SEA
0.8 CHI
1.2 OAK
1.7 NO
4.2 TB
2.5 MIN
3.2 WAS
3.6 HOU
1.1 CLE
2.2 JAX
1.7 SD
0.7 ATL
3.8 GB
5.6 KC
2.3 NYJ

Best of luck to all.

TotalBS said...

Jamie I have you at (17-15) from what is posted here... Did you start your plays in week 3?

FFGeeks said...

KC +4, GB -4 (As Patriots fan HATE this pick), CIN -3 and BAL -4

Wonder why we are all on the same games (not necessarily on the same side)?

Don Verlench said...

Go Patriots! No mercy on the evil Packers
Sign a Bears fan

Jaime Brugueras said...

TotalBS glad you're checking my honesty. I started in week 2. I just doubled check my spreadsheet and 22-18 is accurate.

Jonathon Grant said...

Jaime - I'm going to express my sympathy to you ahead of time over what is going to transpire over the next 3.5 hours.

Happy Thanksgiving All!

Jaime Brugueras said...

Thank you! Looks like a 1-1 Thanksgiving Thursday plus the Bears just completely putting themselves out of the race.

johnbart said...

There are still Bear fans left? I think most winning models have a special Cutler co-efficient built into them. :)

TotalBS said...

Sorry I had a data entry error, I was doing this in excel. So this won't happen again, I just finished writing a computer program that will take out human data entry error...

The only mistakes were:
Pick Value
TB 3.0
NE .49

Sorry for the confusion.

Jonathon Grant said...

For those interested in a summary of the Hilton contest selections, I focused on the Top 9 this week (There were numerous people tied for 10th).

BUF-2.5 7-0
BAL-5.5 6-0
HOU-6.5 5-0
NYG-2.5 4-0
ATL+2.5 5-1
NO+4.5 3-0
GB-3 2-0

I think I saw on the site somewhere earlier this week that the top 5 selections of all competitors were 36-25 through Week 12. Here are those selections as well:
ARI-2.5
NYG-2.5
BAL-5.5
BUF-2.5
CIN-3.5
NE-3

Another consideration would be betting against the least popular picks, this would suggest playing:
HOU-6.5
MIA-6.5
MIN-2.5
STL-6.5
BUF-2.5
NYG-2.5

Lastly, I'll consider the net number of selections for each game, and say:
NYG-2.5
BUF-2.5
BAL-5.5
MIA-6.5
CIN-3.5
ARI-2.5

Does anyone have thoughts on why the top players are selecting ATL, but everyone else has ARI? I.e. what is the ATL angle in this game?

TotalBS said...

Because the public is all over Arizona. This line is a trap and the top handicappers in the contest know it.

Jonathon Grant said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jonathon Grant said...

I get that's the logic. I'm wondering why the experts favor Atlanta. I think Arizona is the superior team (albeit my model pretty much nailed the line). I'm trying to understand why Atlanta will likely win this game.

TotalBS said...

You get the better qb at home and getting points. Sharps are all over that scenario even though Arizona is easily the better team

Jaime Brugueras said...

The Baltimore line moved two points. This is one that may hurt me for not waiting and having to put picks early. We'll see. It's a long shot but hopefully it doesn't come down to that and SD wins straight up.

johnbart said...

On the ARI@ATL game my line has @ATL (-2.2)

My model is very pass efficiency focused and is front loaded so recent results are valued more. The Cards aren't the same 9-2 team without Palmer.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Jonathan, can you explain the first set. Like GB 2-0 at -3. Does that mean that only 2 of the top 9 picked that game and they all bet GB?

Jonathon Grant said...

Jaime - That's correct.

Each of the teams listed where the "consensus" pick of the Top 9, followed by the line used in the contest. Then I listed the number who selected the team, vs how many selected the opponent.

For the Atlanta game, 6 of the top 9 played the game, 5 went ATL+2.5, 1 went ARI-2.5.

Best.

Jonathon Grant said...

Solid week for the Hilton contest. Those "consensus" picks I posted went 5-2, and if you included all games where there was a majority, they were 8-2.

The top 9 went a combined 29-16 this week.

TotalBS said...

Sadly, for all the work we do creating our "masterpieces" the best system is very simple..

Like I said, I have followed this Hilton contest for years, and the BEST system out there is to take the top10 each week and look for COMMON plays.

BUT... You need to wait 6 weeks or so. From my experience, the guys after week 6 tend to STAY at the top and you can ride these guys to profitability.

Jonathon Grant said...

TotalBS - Weeks like this one help convince me. I've been playing their picks cautiously, but optimistically, and they've done alright the last few weeks. I'll continue to do so, and so long as they keep hitting, then I'll start increasing my wagers!

Jaime Brugueras said...

I'm not convinced until I see it being successful year after year. I'm not a big fan of the 5-1 runs. The guys at the prediction tracker have tried some kind of wisdom of the smart crowd approach without much success. What do you think would happen if we put our picks together?

TotalBS said...

Jaime, just track it like I have for the last 7 years then get back to us.

I have done my homework.

Jaime Brugueras said...

I wish I could back track it. But the reason I ask is because I'm thinking of ideas to enhance the blog. The only idea I've come up with so far is some sort of prediction tracker but that has been done before. Any ideas?

Jonathon Grant said...

Jaime - Are you actually not considering playing this system (the Hilton picks)? While yes, I can't say that I am certain it will be successful, I have reason to believe that it could be quite successful (I have no reason to doubt TotalBS, and while I haven't kept stats on it all year - which I should've - I am confident that it is ahead YTD). I don't see the harm in playing a system that has potential, because even if it doesn't pan out, the picks should still go 50/50, and you wouldn't be out too much money. As a risk manager, I consider this to be a good risk ;)

I really have no suggestions on how to change the blog. I don't care about how pretty stuff is though, I just like it to function. This functions well enough for me.

Jonathon Grant said...

Is anyone in the Yahoo Pro Pickem? I'm part of a $20 pool on there, so I don't pay too much attention.

I know in the past, you used to be able to view the overall Yahoo leaders picks an hour before kickoff. Is this still possible? If no one knows, I'll check on Sunday.

Jaime Brugueras said...

I'm going to track that strategy but not bet it. My only concern if that when something is so public, the market should adjust and become more efficient. If not, anyone would do it and the casinos would lose money. That will never happen. I'll track and see how it does. I'll take the top 4 picks from the top 10? Last week that strategy would have paid 2-2 correct?
BUF-2.5 7-0 win
BAL-5.5 6-0 lose
HOU-6.5 5-0 win
NYG-2.5 4-0 lose