2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 5

Pick 1: Seattle -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Cincinnati -1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Diego -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Tennessee +1.5 correct NFL point spread pick

What the hell is wrong with Carolina? One of the best defenses of the league last year. The team has definitely changed from last year so after two weeks in a row of losing that bet, I'll keep away from them until more data is in. Buffalo was close and don't think I should have changed that bet. I should have evaluated the Dallas #MNF and Indianapolis confidence percentage. Like my friend told me during a kids birthday parties as I checked results over my phone, it's about the long run. My response is that I get that, but it's much better to say how many winning seasons one gets.

This week we try to capitalize on the Redskins QB weakness, ride on New England's issues, keep betting our favorite pony and best ATS record Chargers, and two bad teams guessing the home team is slightly better. Cool thing is that we have SNF and MNF games.

Since we are now in week 5, we up to 15% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $360 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ WASHINGTON 7 13.0 6 61.5%
CINCINNATI @ NEW ENGLAND 1.5 4.2 2.7 60.0%
NY JETS @ SAN DIEGO -7 -19.1 -12.1 59.0%
CLEVELAND @ TENNESSEE 1.5 -4.2 -6.7 58.6%
ATLANTA @ NY GIANTS -4 -4.9 -0.9 56.3%
ST LOUIS @ PHILADELPHIA -7 -8.0 -1.0 54.6%
BALTIMORE @ INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 -5.2 -1.7 54.4%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -10 -7.0 3.0 52.7%
HOUSTON @ DALLAS -6 -12.1 -6.1 51.4%
CHICAGO @ CAROLINA -2.5 -4.9 -2.4 50.0%
BUFFALO @ DETROIT -7 -6.5 0.5 50.0%
ARIZONA @ DENVER -7.5 -7.3 0.2 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY -9 -7.4 1.6 50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ JACKSONVILLE 7 4.4 -2.6 49.7%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 -2.2 4.3 48.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

19 comments:

Jonathon Grant said...

Hey Jamie,

Double check the CLE@TEN line. I've only seen it as TEN -1.5. Just wondering if it was a typo on your end and TEN is still a bet, or if it was an oversight (or maybe your site offers nicer odds than mine!!)

Jaime Brugueras said...

No, I still see it at +1.5. Some other places have it at +1 and others at even.

Jonathon Grant said...

Thanks for checking! Mind if I ask what site you're getting those odds from? That's a 3 point difference from the ones I'm seeing and a potential arbitrage opportunity!

Jaime Brugueras said...

I saw it at various now it's gone. I have a screenshot to prove it though :)

emily & david said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jonathon Grant said...

I believe you Jaime, if it was still being offered, that would have been interesting though.

Not sure if you recall, but last season we briefly discussed working on rank preservation within your confidence grids (e.g. you should be more confident in a -9.5 estimate than a -8.5 estimate when the line is -3.5). Wondering if you were interested in continuing that discussion? I'd be fine starting an analysis on it if you don't have the time.

Alan Hibino said...

If your estimate for Tennessee is -4.2 and Vegas has it as 1.5. Isn't Prediction-Vegas -4.2 - 1.5 = -6.7? Does your confidence level remain the same?

-4.2 - (-1.5) = -2.7 as your (Prediction-Vegas) states which would be consistent with the readers who have found the TEN -1.5 line...

Jonathon Grant said...

Alan - Confidence level is based on historic experience of that estimate on a given line, so yes, the confidence does change if you bet a different line.

Jaime Brugueras said...

That's because where I extract the lines is not where I necessarily track my bets. So I had to manually change the bet but forgot to change the favorite.

Seems like I and very few others saw this line. I'm starting to suspect it was an error from casino that only lasted for a few hours. Stay off that bet because as Alan said, the confidence does change if the spread is changed.

m k said...

Howdy! Can your picks be used in a confidence pool? I have been arranging them based on the level of your estimate. For example this week my picks are:
15-San Diego
14-Seattle
13-Dallas
12-Philadelphia
11-Green Bay
10-Denver
9-New Orleans
8-Detroit
7-Indianapolis
6-NY Giants
5-Carolina
4-Pittsburgh
3-Cincinnati
2-Tennessee
1-San Francisco
I'm totally new to football. Please tell me if I'm doing this all wrong!

Jonathon Grant said...

For anyone interested, the Cle/Ten line is back to Ten+1.5 at most places. Well done Jaime, not only can you predict winners, you can also predict line swings ;)

TotalBS said...

Your line on Tennessee is ridiculous.
Cleveland is the dog, at least be honest or your record has no meaning.

Jaime Brugueras said...

I've been providing picks for the past 6 years. Honesty and transparency is something I stand for. My true fans know that. I thought of picturing when I got the line. If you didn't get it, I warned you to stay away.

TotalBS said...

Transparency is fine, but you need to make sure the lines you give are the most common ones available (Check covers.com for a list) and not ones that fit the side you like.

Jaime Brugueras said...

No, I use the lines available when I post. If you've followed me long enough you will know, especially last year, that is punishing for my picks as well. Go Seahawks!

TotalBS said...

Then tell us where you go to find these lines at the time you make your picks, it should be a CONSISTENT place is my point.

You can't just say "I found this line at the time I made my pick"...

All I am saying is, be consistent and take your line from ONE place for every pick otherwise it isn't fair to claim success when the rest of us can't shop around to find the very best lines for our plays.

Jonathon Grant said...

While I do agree that in order to be totally transparent, the source of the odds should be posted, I don't believe that Jaime is shopping for odds. And while it's kind of irrelevant, Cleveland did go off as the favorite on Covers.com.

Jaime, while I agree with your remark that if you can't get the line, don't bet it, I think this guys point is that no one could find that line (at the time), so you including it as a victory misrepresents your record. Like, if I was to post picks where I'm always saying the line is 7 points different than the consensus, of course I'll end up with a winning record. In the interests of transparency, would you consider sharing your source for odds? It would put an end to these discussions that pop up from time to time.

Cheers

Jaime Brugueras said...

The line I put sometimes changes to hurt me. That's my point. I have a script that scrapes from footballlocks

Jonathon Grant said...

I know, I've seen it happen. Skeptics only ever care when it discredits you though! However, by stating that you pull them from FootballLOCKS.com, anyone who cares to dispute it can check for themselves, or create a similar script of their own in the event they can't check quick enough.