2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: New Orleans -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver -10 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Francisco -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Perfect week last week! The picks couldn't have gone any better. We finished 3-0 ATS with two of the picks being huge blowouts. This puts us at 58% ATS for the season and 16% ROI. As happy as I was for the perfect picks, I was disappointed with my Bears and their humiliating loss against the Packers. I will continue to work hard for you and provide more great weeks like this one.

This week we have again 3 picks over the 58% confidence threshold. These three picks are only available to premium members. All other computer-based NFL picks are free to everyone. Some noteables mention in the free picks include Arizona and Minnesota. But although the models are pointing their way, Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson are not well accounted for in these games (so probably just better to stick with the premium picks). This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $675 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CINCINNATI @ NEW ORLEANS -7 -9.4 -2.4 61.2%
DENVER @ ST LOUIS 10 15.5 5.5 59.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NY GIANTS 4.5 7.8 3.3 58.0%
DETROIT @ ARIZONA -1.5 -7.5 -6.0 56.3%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO -3.5 -2.4 1.1 54.7%
NEW ENGLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 -0.9 1.6 53.6%
PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE 6 0.7 -5.3 52.9%
SEATTLE @ KANSAS CITY -1 -4.7 -3.7 52.3%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA -2 -6.0 -4.0 50.6%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI -5.5 -3.9 1.6 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ GREEN BAY -6 9.5 15.5 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON -7 -11.5 -4.5 50.0%
HOUSTON @ CLEVELAND -3.5 0.2 3.7 49.7%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO -10 -12.4 -2.4 48.2%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

19 comments:

W Li said...

What is your data driven model's record in betting all games in each week of the nfl season? Neil Greenberg who writes for the Washington Times has a point difference model that claims a success rate of 58% ATS for this season. Do you have these stats historically so comparisons can be made from year to year? Also how does your model do in predicting games straight up? Does it perform as well as Nate Silvers' ELO model which is now leading the pack against the Microsoft Cortana team and Vegas.

W Li said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
johnbart said...

My model sees the following lines on your 3 picks:

NO (-4.6)
STL (+7.4)
NYG (+2.2)

Here are my totals lines for the week as well. There's enough edge to bet if there's a 3.5 point difference.

Home Total Vegas O/U Visitor
---- -------
@MIA 40.24 42 BUF
@CLE 45.12 42 HOU
@CHI 46.32 47 MIN
@GB 49.65 56 PHI
@KC 45.04 42.5 SEA
@CAR 48.26 46.5 ATL
@NO 47.93 50.5 CIN
@WAS 43.48 45 TB
@STL 45.91 51 DEN
@NYG 41.28 43.5 SF
@SD 48.79 44.5 OAK
@ARI 39.54 41.5 DET
@IND 53.39 57.5 NE
@TEN 48.78 47 PIT

--------------------------------------------------------

Best of luck all.

Jaime Brugueras said...

I don't have those stats because the whole premise of this blog is to find the few games were there is the largest chance of winning. Betting on all games won't give you an edge. I haven't compared myself to Nate Silver. I can get those stats but honestly I'm not interested.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Thanks for sharing johnbart

Jonathon Grant said...

Jaime - I will add that anyone who wants those stats could get them as well. All your past picks are on here, and the outcome of games isn't hard to find.

W Li - I've been utilizing a model (with the slightest of judgment calls) that is picking 60% ATS this season, across all games. 4% of the football pool I am in are picking at least 58% this year. While it's impressive, it can't be maintained in the long run.

Jonathon Grant said...

My model has the following lines on the three games:
NO -15.4
STL +11.7
NYG +4.0

My strongest picks would be NO, MIN, WAS.

Good luck all.

TotalBS said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
TotalBS said...

I Had A Bug Here Are The Plays:

PLAY Value
BUF 1.8
WAS .3
STL 3.4
CIN .15
NYG .392
MIN 1.95
CLE 2.47
CAR .44
KC 1.69
SD 1.63
PHI 5.53
ARZ 1.83
IND .04
TEN 2.45

As you can see my numbers are pretty dead on to Vegas, no surprise the line on Denver is inflated, it always is as Denver is the most heavily backed public pick each week.

FFGeeks said...

Last week wasn't a difficult week to beat vegas with favorites going 10-3 against the spread. I went 4-0 picking 2 dogs (KC -2, SF +5.5, NYJ +4 and ARZ -6.5)

This week my "system" came up with 4 dogs as best bet picks (CIN +7, STL +9.5, TB + 7.5, and NE +3)

My wife says I should charge too !! Ha Ha

Jaime Brugueras said...

You crack me up FFGeeks. Have her talk to my wife :)
One point I want to make is that just because favorites win it was an easy week. Favorites dont win in majority if not that would be the simplest way to make money. Too bad you don't have a track record but I will see how lucky you get with your 4 dogs.

johnbart said...

I didn't realize that the easy way to bet was to lay 12 points on a game. :) The truth is that there can be value on either side of the line and it's hard to figure out where it sits.

I like the NE +3 pick but the rest I don't have a betting opinion. As a life long Bengals fan I'll cheer for Cincinnati with my voice but not my bankroll :)

FFGeeks said...

I realize that favorites dont win in the majority. However, favorites are PICKED in the majority. I participate in a pick 4 club of 250 members. In 11 weeks so far this season the favorites have been picked no less than 55%. Last week members picked 78% favorites. (155 members picked PIT over NYJ. I and 9 others picked the NYJ.)

I am 3-0 at halftime this week. See what happens in the second half. HaHa

FFGeeks said...

johnbart You should have gone with the Bungals .. I mean Bengals

FFGeeks said...

4-0 this week 8-0 last two weeks. How much can I charge each week? Ha Ha

But seriously Jaime. To keep making claim about your success, you need to reveal your top picks before the games are played.

Maybe right at game time?

TotalBS said...

I'm guessing he is 1-2

johnbart said...

As a Bengals fan I'm happy with the results of the game. I still won't trust a ginger QB when my numbers say otherwise :)

Good week everyone.

Jaime Brugueras said...

1-2 :( I'm pissed, but my friends remind me that my success is not determined by two or three weeks but by years.

It's hard for me to update on Sundays, usually out with family.

TotalBS said...

Ffgeeks seems to have the best system here keep up the good work!