2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 11
Pick 1: New Orleans -7 
Pick 2: Denver -10
Pick 3: San Francisco -4.5
Perfect week last week! The picks couldn't have gone any better. We finished 3-0 ATS with two of the picks being huge blowouts. This puts us at 58% ATS for the season and 16% ROI. As happy as I was for the perfect picks, I was disappointed with my Bears and their humiliating loss against the Packers. I will continue to work hard for you and provide more great weeks like this one.
This week we have again 3 picks over the 58% confidence threshold. These three picks are only available to premium members. All other computer-based NFL picks are free to everyone. Some noteables mention in the free picks include Arizona and Minnesota. But although the models are pointing their way, Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson are not well accounted for in these games (so probably just better to stick with the premium picks). This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $675 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Denver -10
Pick 3: San Francisco -4.5
Perfect week last week! The picks couldn't have gone any better. We finished 3-0 ATS with two of the picks being huge blowouts. This puts us at 58% ATS for the season and 16% ROI. As happy as I was for the perfect picks, I was disappointed with my Bears and their humiliating loss against the Packers. I will continue to work hard for you and provide more great weeks like this one.
This week we have again 3 picks over the 58% confidence threshold. These three picks are only available to premium members. All other computer-based NFL picks are free to everyone. Some noteables mention in the free picks include Arizona and Minnesota. But although the models are pointing their way, Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson are not well accounted for in these games (so probably just better to stick with the premium picks). This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $675 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CINCINNATI @ NEW ORLEANS | -7 | -9.4 | -2.4 | 61.2% |
| DENVER @ ST LOUIS | 10 | 15.5 | 5.5 | 59.3% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ NY GIANTS | 4.5 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 58.0% |
| DETROIT @ ARIZONA | -1.5 | -7.5 | -6.0 | 56.3% |
| MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO | -3.5 | -2.4 | 1.1 | 54.7% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS | -2.5 | -0.9 | 1.6 | 53.6% |
| PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE | 6 | 0.7 | -5.3 | 52.9% |
| SEATTLE @ KANSAS CITY | -1 | -4.7 | -3.7 | 52.3% |
| ATLANTA @ CAROLINA | -2 | -6.0 | -4.0 | 50.6% |
| BUFFALO @ MIAMI | -5.5 | -3.9 | 1.6 | 50.0% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ GREEN BAY | -6 | 9.5 | 15.5 | 50.0% |
| TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON | -7 | -11.5 | -4.5 | 50.0% |
| HOUSTON @ CLEVELAND | -3.5 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 49.7% |
| OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO | -10 | -12.4 | -2.4 | 48.2% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
NO (-4.6)
STL (+7.4)
NYG (+2.2)
Here are my totals lines for the week as well. There's enough edge to bet if there's a 3.5 point difference.
Home Total Vegas O/U Visitor
---- -------
@MIA 40.24 42 BUF
@CLE 45.12 42 HOU
@CHI 46.32 47 MIN
@GB 49.65 56 PHI
@KC 45.04 42.5 SEA
@CAR 48.26 46.5 ATL
@NO 47.93 50.5 CIN
@WAS 43.48 45 TB
@STL 45.91 51 DEN
@NYG 41.28 43.5 SF
@SD 48.79 44.5 OAK
@ARI 39.54 41.5 DET
@IND 53.39 57.5 NE
@TEN 48.78 47 PIT
--------------------------------------------------------
Best of luck all.
W Li - I've been utilizing a model (with the slightest of judgment calls) that is picking 60% ATS this season, across all games. 4% of the football pool I am in are picking at least 58% this year. While it's impressive, it can't be maintained in the long run.
NO -15.4
STL +11.7
NYG +4.0
My strongest picks would be NO, MIN, WAS.
Good luck all.
PLAY Value
BUF 1.8
WAS .3
STL 3.4
CIN .15
NYG .392
MIN 1.95
CLE 2.47
CAR .44
KC 1.69
SD 1.63
PHI 5.53
ARZ 1.83
IND .04
TEN 2.45
As you can see my numbers are pretty dead on to Vegas, no surprise the line on Denver is inflated, it always is as Denver is the most heavily backed public pick each week.
This week my "system" came up with 4 dogs as best bet picks (CIN +7, STL +9.5, TB + 7.5, and NE +3)
My wife says I should charge too !! Ha Ha
One point I want to make is that just because favorites win it was an easy week. Favorites dont win in majority if not that would be the simplest way to make money. Too bad you don't have a track record but I will see how lucky you get with your 4 dogs.
I like the NE +3 pick but the rest I don't have a betting opinion. As a life long Bengals fan I'll cheer for Cincinnati with my voice but not my bankroll :)
I am 3-0 at halftime this week. See what happens in the second half. HaHa
But seriously Jaime. To keep making claim about your success, you need to reveal your top picks before the games are played.
Maybe right at game time?
Good week everyone.
It's hard for me to update on Sundays, usually out with family.