2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 16

Pick 1: San Diego +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Arizona +9 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Another miserable week for this picks as the picks went again 1-2. Should have not bet against Denver. I'm adjusting a few parameters this week based on some back testing I did over the week. Excuse me for not posting the picks before Thursday. I'm still confident the system works, so hoping that from now on and especially during the playoffs, we come out winning big to recover and finish the year in good shape.

This week we have 4 premium picks and we are keeping the bankroll at 25%. This gives us a bet of $560 per game for this week. I also like and stats back me up on KC, CHI, NE and CLE.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ SAN FRANCISCO -1 3.9 4.9 66.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DALLAS -3 3.7 6.7 59.1%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA 9 3.1 -5.9 57.5%
DENVER @ CINCINNATI 3 6.4 3.4 57.1%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS -6.5 -9.4 -2.9 56.3%
KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH -3 11.3 14.3 55.8%
BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON 6 1.9 -4.1 54.4%
MINNESOTA @ MIAMI -6.5 -6.7 -0.2 50.0%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO 9.5 5.6 -3.9 50.0%
CLEVELAND @ CAROLINA -4 0.4 4.4 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON 8 8.2 0.2 50.0%
NY GIANTS @ ST LOUIS -6.5 -4.8 1.7 49.2%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS 10.5 25.3 14.8 48.2%
GREEN BAY @ TAMPA BAY 12 10.0 -2.0 47.5%
BUFFALO @ OAKLAND 6.5 6.9 0.4 47.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

8 comments:

johnbart said...

You can't judge your performance on three picks. The sample size is too small. You either are a genius going 3-0, 2-1 or you're a heel going 1-2 or 0-3. Neither of those tell the truth. Still with it and keep measuring your long term performance.

My lines on this week's top 4:

@SF (-3.3)
@DAL (-2.7)
@ARI (+0.4)
@CIN (+3.2)

The ARI spread is the only one drastically off from Vegas but I wouldn't touch that game given the QB issues involved.

TotalBS said...

What you can't do is "tweak". Once you do that all prior history means nothing.

If you need to tweak, then make another version of your original and then continue tracking both.

It takes about 5 years of testing before you know if you have something or it has been just "lucky". The NFL has so few samples that it takes a long time to test theories.

RJW said...

This chargers-49ers game has been a good game so far!
I listed my picks for this week at NFLocksmith.com
Good luck with your picks!

Jonathon Grant said...

A little late this week, but here is a summary of the SuperContest picks (top 10 players):

CAR+1.5 8-0
DET-6.5 7-0
STL-4.5 6-0
BUF-5.5 5-0
DAL-3 4-0
WAS+7.5 3-0
MIN+6.5 3-0
ARI+8 3-0
JAX-3 2-0
GB-10.5 2-0
HOU+5.5 2-0
KC+3 1-0

The SD/SF game, and the DEN/CIN game were split 1-1 each.

I'm a little confused as to the lines they are playing this week. I had a busy week and wasn't able to track line movement much, but it looks as if many lines migrated 1-2 points in the direction of the players picks. The Carolina/Cleveland line was apparently Cle-1.5, while now it is Car-4 in most places, and has been virtually all week. I wouldn't touch that game, since I'm sure the players being handed 5.5 points influenced their pick there a little bit.

Good luck all, and Merry Christmas!

Jonathon Grant said...

RJW - I played SD tonight, and had them as a (slight) dog in my pickem pools. I was sitting no worse than 3 back in any of the pools I'm in going into today, and the leader in each pool had SF. It was a make or break game for me, and I was certain it was a lost cause. SD gave me some hope when they pulled within 7 the first time, but that 90 yard run was insane, and killed my hopes. (BTW, was that a record run for a QB? FOr some reason I recall Kordell Stewart running 70-80 yards for a TD years ago and hearing that was a record then). Crazy ending. Both games today were great to watch.

Jonathon Grant said...

Jaime (or anyone else who may know) - I haven't booked anything yet, but I think I'm going to head to Chicago with the family next weekend for a few days. If I go, I'm thinking I'll take off to Lambeau to watch the Packers and Lions battle it out for the NFC North. Any idea how to get a single ticket at a reasonable price without getting ripped off? I'm sure Stubhub and the Ticket Exchange are the safest, but their fees are huge, and I'd rather put that extra money toward a better seat, or a cheesehead hat! Any advice would be great.

Don Verlench said...

Jonathon Grant...Tickets to Detroit@Green Bay? Well there is Craig’s list but use caution.
If you find a deal I would do the following.
1. Tell the seller you want a picture of the tickets.
2. Tell the seller you will only meet in a place that has cameras inside and outside (for License Plates).
3. Do a reverse scan on the person’s phone number.
4. If you agree to a place, but at the last minute he/she changes the place because of blah blah blah, don’t do it.

Jonathon Grant said...

Thanks Don. Will keep those things in mind!