2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 16
Pick 1: San Diego +1 
Pick 2: Indianapolis +3
Pick 3: Arizona +9
Pick 4: Denver -3
Another miserable week for this picks as the picks went again 1-2. Should have not bet against Denver. I'm adjusting a few parameters this week based on some back testing I did over the week. Excuse me for not posting the picks before Thursday. I'm still confident the system works, so hoping that from now on and especially during the playoffs, we come out winning big to recover and finish the year in good shape.
This week we have 4 premium picks and we are keeping the bankroll at 25%. This gives us a bet of $560 per game for this week. I also like and stats back me up on KC, CHI, NE and CLE.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Indianapolis +3
Pick 3: Arizona +9
Pick 4: Denver -3
Another miserable week for this picks as the picks went again 1-2. Should have not bet against Denver. I'm adjusting a few parameters this week based on some back testing I did over the week. Excuse me for not posting the picks before Thursday. I'm still confident the system works, so hoping that from now on and especially during the playoffs, we come out winning big to recover and finish the year in good shape.
This week we have 4 premium picks and we are keeping the bankroll at 25%. This gives us a bet of $560 per game for this week. I also like and stats back me up on KC, CHI, NE and CLE.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN DIEGO @ SAN FRANCISCO | -1 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 66.7% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ DALLAS | -3 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 59.1% |
| SEATTLE @ ARIZONA | 9 | 3.1 | -5.9 | 57.5% |
| DENVER @ CINCINNATI | 3 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 57.1% |
| ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS | -6.5 | -9.4 | -2.9 | 56.3% |
| KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH | -3 | 11.3 | 14.3 | 55.8% |
| BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON | 6 | 1.9 | -4.1 | 54.4% |
| MINNESOTA @ MIAMI | -6.5 | -6.7 | -0.2 | 50.0% |
| DETROIT @ CHICAGO | 9.5 | 5.6 | -3.9 | 50.0% |
| CLEVELAND @ CAROLINA | -4 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 50.0% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 8 | 8.2 | 0.2 | 50.0% |
| NY GIANTS @ ST LOUIS | -6.5 | -4.8 | 1.7 | 49.2% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS | 10.5 | 25.3 | 14.8 | 48.2% |
| GREEN BAY @ TAMPA BAY | 12 | 10.0 | -2.0 | 47.5% |
| BUFFALO @ OAKLAND | 6.5 | 6.9 | 0.4 | 47.0% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
My lines on this week's top 4:
@SF (-3.3)
@DAL (-2.7)
@ARI (+0.4)
@CIN (+3.2)
The ARI spread is the only one drastically off from Vegas but I wouldn't touch that game given the QB issues involved.
If you need to tweak, then make another version of your original and then continue tracking both.
It takes about 5 years of testing before you know if you have something or it has been just "lucky". The NFL has so few samples that it takes a long time to test theories.
I listed my picks for this week at NFLocksmith.com
Good luck with your picks!
CAR+1.5 8-0
DET-6.5 7-0
STL-4.5 6-0
BUF-5.5 5-0
DAL-3 4-0
WAS+7.5 3-0
MIN+6.5 3-0
ARI+8 3-0
JAX-3 2-0
GB-10.5 2-0
HOU+5.5 2-0
KC+3 1-0
The SD/SF game, and the DEN/CIN game were split 1-1 each.
I'm a little confused as to the lines they are playing this week. I had a busy week and wasn't able to track line movement much, but it looks as if many lines migrated 1-2 points in the direction of the players picks. The Carolina/Cleveland line was apparently Cle-1.5, while now it is Car-4 in most places, and has been virtually all week. I wouldn't touch that game, since I'm sure the players being handed 5.5 points influenced their pick there a little bit.
Good luck all, and Merry Christmas!
If you find a deal I would do the following.
1. Tell the seller you want a picture of the tickets.
2. Tell the seller you will only meet in a place that has cameras inside and outside (for License Plates).
3. Do a reverse scan on the person’s phone number.
4. If you agree to a place, but at the last minute he/she changes the place because of blah blah blah, don’t do it.