NFL Point Spread Picks - Playoffs

Pick 1: San Francisco -3 PUSH
Pick 2: San Diego +7
Pick 3: Philadelphia -2.5
Pick 4: Kansas City +2.5
We've had a good run this year. 54% for the year and 57% the last 8 weeks. For the past 6 years I've been giving you every week free picks generated by an algorithm I created while studying a Ph.D. in Mathematics. I've since improved the formula much with the knowledge attained through the years. I've been studying NFL point spreads for the past 7 years and posting my picks here for the past 5 years, at no cost. Last year I decided to generate a bit of money to pay for the minor expenses in time and resources that this takes.

Get ALL 2013 NFL playoff picks for $79 100% Guarantee - If all playoff picks go under 50% ATS, I'll give you your money back

Why am I charging for picks now?
For a few reasons, here they are in no specific order:

• I like pressure. If I don't perform (under 50% ATS), I lose you don't. 
• They are worth every penny, especially the playoff picks.
• Every year my wife tells me to.

What do you get?
For $50 you will receive all the weekly picks throughout the playoffs. It's not $79 a week, it's $79 for all Wildcard, Divisional, Conference, and Super Bowl games.

Who am I?
Jaime Brugueras, Ph.D. in Statistics from the University of Illinois. I'm the Analytics head at a fast growing marketing analytics company. I've been posting my picks since 2006, putting myself out there like no other NFL handicapper. Now after a 54% 2012 season you've witnessed, 56% through 5 years, and a 62% ATS record during the playoffs, I feel confident that this will generate profits for people who seriously bet on NFL games.

What are you waiting for? Get your picks
You have nothing to lose. If you don't win, neither do I.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY	3	7.3	4.3	63.0%
SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI	-7	-4.9	2.1	59.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ PHILADELPHIA	-2.5	-5.1	-2.6	58.4%
KANSAS CITY @ INDIANAPOLIS	-2.5	3.5	6.0	56.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Unofficial Spread Picks for Week 17

I have never placed bets on the last week of the season. Similar to the off season, there are teams that have already qualified and might sit their QBs or teams that are so at the bottom that it might even be beneficial for them to stay there. Since I believe some players and coaches might not be giving their 100% effort, I've always stayed away from this week. When I started this blog, I wouldn't even run the numbers but I quickly learned that some of you still like to see them. So here are the automated point spread picks from NFLpickles:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH	-7	-6.1	0.9	63.0%
NY JETS @ MIAMI	-7	-6.5	0.5	63.0%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI	-6.5	-7.2	-0.7	60.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA	3	6.3	3.3	55.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-11	-15.8	-4.8	54.8%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND	-9.5	-10.9	-1.4	53.1%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE	-10	-12.0	-2.0	53.1%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE	-6.5	-9.4	-2.9	51.0%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS	-4	-1.9	2.1	50.0%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA	-3.5	-2.2	1.3	50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS	-13	-13.3	-0.3	50.0%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA	7	8.6	1.6	50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO	-9.5	-0.3	9.2	49.8%
DENVER @ OAKLAND	13	13.3	0.3	48.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS	7.5	-6.0	-13.5	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16 - 2013

Pick 1: St Louis -5
Pick 2: Indianapolis +7
Pick 3: New England +2.5
Pick 4: San Francisco -13

We continue our struggles this year with last week going again 1-2 (by merely one point away from going 2-1). Many of you have asked me to do a broader study on trends regarding homedogs, division and other things that we should probably at least be aware of. I promise I will do so at least in the off-season if not before. Now that I've just started my vacation, I might grab a night to query my 15 year database and see what comes out. I can't promise anything soon as I'm expecting a new member of the family some time soon and don't know how all that will pan out. This will be the last week of regular season picks and then we'll go strong on the playoffs and will hopefully continue my average of 55% during playoffs.
For the second week in a row, we use 20% of bankroll for the 4 picks above. That's $455 per pick. See table below for automated predictions of NFL games week 16 against the spread.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
TAMPA BAY @ ST LOUIS	-5	-7.4	-2.4	62.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ KANSAS CITY	-7	-4.8	2.2	61.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ BALTIMORE	-2.5	1.1	3.6	58.1%
ATLANTA @ SAN FRANCISCO	-13	-18.2	-5.2	57.5%
NY GIANTS @ DETROIT	-9	-7.8	1.2	54.8%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON	3	1.9	-1.1	53.7%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE	-10.5	-12.9	-2.4	53.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA	-3.5	-6.4	-2.9	51.9%
DENVER @ HOUSTON	10.5	14.8	4.3	51.9%
MINNESOTA @ CINCINNATI	-7.5	-9.0	-1.5	51.0%
CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA	-3	-0.6	2.4	50.3%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE	5.5	6.7	1.2	50.0%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO	3	2.8	-0.2	49.9%
CLEVELAND @ NY JETS	-2	-6.5	-4.5	49.3%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO	-10	-9.4	0.6	48.1%
PITTSBURGH @ GREEN BAY	0	-6.4	-6.4	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15 - 2013

Pick 1: Baltimore +6
Pick 2: Denver -10.5
Pick 3: Carolina -11

And back to negative ROI... For this week, NFL predictions below, hoping that Cutler doesn't play for the Bears, if he does this pick might be removed (UPDATE: Bears pick has been removed). Two more weeks of regular season and then we start the playoffs. We're upping our bankroll for the reason of the season to 20% per week. For week 15 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $640 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 15 of 2013.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BALTIMORE @ DETROIT	-6	-0.9	5.1	61.9%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER	-10.5	-13.9	-3.4	58.5%
NY JETS @ CAROLINA	-11	-18.5	-7.5	58.5%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH	3	6.8	3.8	55.1%
SAN FRANCISCO @ TAMPA BAY	6	10.5	4.5	55.1%
ARIZONA @ TENNESSEE	3	0.0	-3.0	53.7%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI	3	1.4	-1.6	53.7%
BUFFALO @ JACKSONVILLE	1.5	3.3	1.8	53.3%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS	-6.5	-8.7	-2.2	51.0%
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA	-6.5	-7.2	-0.7	50.0%
SEATTLE @ NY GIANTS	7	11.8	4.8	50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND	5	5.2	0.2	49.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ ST LOUIS	6	8.3	2.3	49.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ MINNESOTA	6	-1.1	-7.1	48.1%
CHICAGO @ CLEVELAND	-1.5	1.9	3.4	NA
GREEN BAY @ DALLAS	NA	-1.8		NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14 - 2013

Pick 1: Carolina +4
Pick 2: Oakland +2.5
Pick 3: Kansas City -3

A great rebound last week to put us finally on positive ROI! First week this year without a pick with over 60% confidence. In other words, all picks are highlighted in yellow. Also this week has all picks for road teams. We're going with the 3 picks listed above without much other further analysis. I did check injury reports, but sometimes they are not updated on Tuesday nights. So please let me know if you see something regarding injuries that you think I should be aware.

I was going to up the percentage to 20 this week, but given that none of the picks are over 60% I'll stick to 18 until we get to the playoffs. For week 14 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $615 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 14 of 2013. Two weeks of picks left before the playoffs since we're on vacation that week :)

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS	-4	2.0	6.0	58.2%
OAKLAND @ NY JETS	-2.5	2.1	4.6	58.2%
KANSAS CITY @ WASHINGTON	3	7.8	4.8	58.1%
CLEVELAND @ NEW ENGLAND	-13	-17.7	-4.7	57.5%
DETROIT @ PHILADELPHIA	-3	0.1	3.1	56.2%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE	3	8.3	5.3	52.1%
TENNESSEE @ DENVER	-13	-14.1	-1.1	52.1%
NY GIANTS @ SAN DIEGO	-3.5	-5.1	-1.6	51.9%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA	-6	-3.2	2.8	51.0%
MINNESOTA @ BALTIMORE	-7	-6.2	0.8	50.5%
MIAMI @ PITTSBURGH	-3.5	3.3	6.8	50.2%
BUFFALO @ TAMPA BAY	-3	-3.2	-0.2	49.9%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO	-2.5	-6.7	-4.2	49.0%
DALLAS @ CHICAGO	2	2.2	0.2	48.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CINCINNATI	-6	-2.2	3.8	48.4%
ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY	NA	-8.6	NA	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Thanksgiving Week

Pick 1: Indianapolis -4.5
Pick 2: Carolina -8
Pick 3: Cincinnati +2
Pick 4: Arizona +3 PUSH

Surprisingly a total 5 picks this week. None of them happening on Thursday so we can all relax and enjoy the time with the family :) I'm more dissapointed in this year's results than anyone else. I still do have hope that they will somehow turn around and that we end up with a good ROI for the year.

We continue to use 18% of bankroll. For week 13 of the NFL, we have a total of 4 predictions for a total of $420 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 13 of 2013.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-4.5	-6.4	-1.9	62.5%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA	-8	-14.5	-6.5	59.2%
CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO	-2	1.7	3.7	58.5%
ARIZONA @ PHILADELPHIA	-3	2.6	5.6	58.2%
MIAMI @ NY JETS	-1	2.6	3.6	53.8%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON	1.5	-5.8	-7.3	54.5%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE	-3	-5.9	-2.9	52.6%
ATLANTA @ BUFFALO	-3.5	-1.3	2.2	50.0%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA	-1	-0.5	0.5	50.0%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY	5	5.1	0.1	50.0%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT	-6.5	3.8	10.3	49.3%
OAKLAND @ DALLAS	-9.5	-8.5	1.0	48.1%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO	-9	-19.3	-10.3	47.4%
NEW ENGLAND @ HOUSTON	9	7.1	-1.9	47.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ SEATTLE	-6	-2.1	3.9	46.4%
JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND	-6.5	-11.7	-5.2	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 12 - 2013

Pick 1: San Francisco -6
Pick 2: Chicago +1
Pick 3: New Orleans -10

All NFL picks this week are visiting team. I'm not too surprised with this week's NFL predictions. Atlanta has been terrible so I expect NO to blow them out. No big injuries that I know of except for Jay Cutler for which I think the Bears are better off anyways so I'm sticking with the prediction model's result.

We continue to use 18% of bankroll. For week 12 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $600 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 12 of 2013.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ WASHINGTON	6	13.3	7.3	61.1%
CHICAGO @ ST LOUIS	-1	3.5	4.5	59.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA	10	19.0	9.0	59.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ ARIZONA	-1.5	7.4	8.9	57.7%
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND	3	8.3	5.3	55.1%
NY JETS @ BALTIMORE	-4	-7.4	-3.4	51.3%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS	-2.5	-2.3	0.2	51.2%
TENNESSEE @ OAKLAND	-1	-10.4	-9.4	50.0%
CAROLINA @ MIAMI	4.5	0.5	-4.0	50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND	-1.5	-9.6	-8.1	50.0%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY	-5	-10.6	-5.6	50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY	-5.5	-8.7	-2.2	50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ DETROIT	-8.5	-10.9	-2.4	49.4%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON	-10	-3.7	-3.7	48.8%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 11 - 2013

Pick 1: NY Jets +1
Pick 2: Miami +2.5
Pick 3: Detroit -2.5
Pick 4: Tampa Bay +1.5

Nice recovery last week, lets keep it up. Not many comments for this week as I'm traveling for work. Not really enamored by the picks this week except for Detroit because most teams are failing. Since I stay away from emotions and personal bias, I'm keeping them. Interesting if Miami bounces back given they've been distracted by other things.

We continue to use 18% of bankroll. For week 11 of the NFL, we have a total of 4 predictions for a total of $450 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 11 of 2013.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NY JETS @ BUFFALO	-1	3.4	4.4	63.8%
SAN DIEGO @ MIAMI	2.5	-1.1	-3.6	61.2%
DETROIT @ PITTSBURGH	2.5	6.6	4.1	59.3%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY	1.5	-4.3	-5.8	58.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ CAROLINA	-1.5	-11.1	-9.6	54.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE	3	8.4	5.4	52.1%
OAKLAND @ HOUSTON	-7	-14.2	-7.2	51.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ORLEANS	-3.5	3.6	7.1	51.0%
BALTIMORE @ CHICAGO	-3	0.4	3.4	50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER	-7.5	-10.1	-2.6	50.0%
MINNESOTA @ SEATTLE	-13	-13.4	-0.4	50.0%
ARIZONA @ JACKSONVILLE	7	18.4	11.4	49.5%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA	-3.5	4.6	8.1	48.6%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI	-6	-2.9	3.1	47.4%
GREEN BAY @ NY GIANTS	-6.5	13.0	19.5	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 10 - 2013

Pick 1: Baltimore +2
Pick 2: Minnesota +2.5
Pick 3: Seattle -6.5

Not many handicappers tell it like it is. Although I don't consider myself a handicapper, I essentially do what they do, make NFL picks against the spread. You read it in newsletters and on their websites, "60% ATS every year". We all know what the trick is. Provide 3 variations of the same picks and by pure chance, one will have higher than 60% success. Not here. This started as my own personal notebook on tabulating pick performance and although it's gotten a bit more serious throughout the years, one thing has stayed the same: true pick performance data. I promised transparency from the beginning, and unlike the government, I've kept my promise since then. Ok, enough about how bad the picks are doing this year. Still early and I'm always more optimistic on the last weeks of the season. So without further babbling, here are our NFL picks against the spread for week 10.

We continue to use 18% of bankroll. For week 10 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $515 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 10 of 2013.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE	2	-4.3	-6.3	62.5%
WASHINGTON @ MINNESOTA	2.5	-1.6	-4.1	61.2%
SEATTLE @ ATLANTA	6.5	14.9	8.4	58.2%
DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS	-7	-5.2	1.8	53.2%
BUFFALO @ PITTSBURGH	-3.5	-5.1	-1.6	50.7%
HOUSTON @ ARIZONA	-2.5	2.8	5.3	50.5%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO	2.5	-0.7	-3.2	50.0%
MIAMI @ TAMPA BAY	3	5.8	2.8	50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ GREEN BAY	-1.5	-10.0	-8.5	50.0%
OAKLAND @ NY GIANTS	-7	-4.0	-3.0	49.8%
CAROLINA @ SAN FRANCISCO	-6.5	-1.5	5.0	49.1%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO	7	13.5	6.5	49.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE	-11.5	-7.0	4.5	48.2%
ST LOUIS @ INDIANAPOLIS	-9.5	-13.1	-3.6	48.2%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 9 - 2013

Pick 1: San Diego -1
Pick 2: Green Bay -11
Pick 3: Dallas -11
Pick 4: Kansas City -3

Brutal week last one. Picks are down to 50% and ROI is in negative. There's still a long way to go and I've been in worst places. Continue to stay disciplined and focused. Research more on injuries, trends, trades, playbook. Request more help from readers as there are weeks that I have little time to deep dive into each game, i.e. I simply press a button (or two) and run the picks against the latest data.

We continue to use 18% of bankroll. For week 9 of the NFL, we have a total of 4 predictions for a total of $430 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 9 of 2013.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN DIEGO @ WASHINGTON	1	4.4	3.4	60.3%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY	-11	-14.9	-3.9	59.5%
MINNESOTA @ DALLAS	-11	-16.3	-5.3	58.5%
KANSAS CITY @ BUFFALO	3	5.9	2.9	58.3%
TENNESSEE @ ST LOUIS	3	7.0	4.0	56.3%
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND	-7	-12.3	-5.3	52.2%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA	-7.5	-12.6	-5.1	52.2%
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE	-17	-26.4	-9.4	51.7%
PHILADELPHIA @ OAKLAND	-2.5	1.1	3.6	50.7%
CINCINNATI @ MIAMI	3	5.6	2.6	50.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON	3	7.9	4.9	50.0%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND	3	-4.9	-7.9	49.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ NY JETS	6.5	7.0	0.5	48.4%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 8 - 2013

Pick 1: Denver -13
Pick 2: Atlanta +2.5
Pick 3: Kansas City -7

Last week could have gone better had I checked the injury report. Philadephia should not have been a pick given Vick was out. I'm still banging my head for not seeing that. It's easy to say in retrospect but if we stick to the original rules, that game should have not been a pick regardless of the outcome. In either case, we came out evenly so no big harm done. The next few weeks we need to break away from breaking even and start accumulating to our bankroll.

Few things I like about this week's picks. 1) I like Denver and believe they will bounce back big at home from a loss, 2) KC can score big at home and cover 7. After the fact observations, entertaining nevertheless.

We up the bankroll a bit to use 18% of bankroll for this week. For Week 8 we have a total of 3 NFL game picks so we bet evenly across all games, $600 per game. Here is the full computerized predictions for week 8 of the NFL against the spread.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
WASHINGTON @ DENVER	-13	-19.3	-6.3	60.5%
ATLANTA @ ARIZONA	-2.5	3.3	5.8	59.1%
CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY	-7	-14.3	-7.3	58.6%
SAN FRANCISCO - JACKSONVILLE	17	13.0	-4.0	58.4%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY	6	3.0	-3.0	53.8%
BUFFALO @ NEW ORLEANS	-12	-10.3	1.7	53.3%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND	-7	-4.6	2.4	53.2%
DALLAS @ DETROIT	-3	-0.5	2.5	50.7%
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS	11.5	8.2	-3.3	50.6%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA	-6	-1.5	4.5	50.3%
PITTSBURGH @ OAKLAND	3	5.2	2.2	49.9%
NY JETS @ CINCINNATI	-6.5	-10.2	-3.7	48.9%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA	10	8.3	-1.7	46.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 7 - 2013

Pick 1: Baltimore +1.5
Pick 2: Carolina -6.5
Pick 3: Philadelphia -2.5
Pick 4: Seattle -5.5

Very little time to talk this week. t-10 minutes til the kickoff of Thursday's game. Great week last week!

We continue by betting 15% of bankroll. For Week 7 we have a total of 4 picks so we bet evenly across all games, $375 per game. Good luck everyone and the only best ROI for the season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH	-1.5	7.6	9.1	60.7%
ST LOUIS @ CAROLINA	-6.5	-13.5	-7	60.3%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA	-2.5	-4.8	-2.3	59.6%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA	5.5	8	2.5	59.0%
CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON	-1	4.2	5.2	54.0%
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA	-7	-7.2	-0.2	53.1%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI	-8	-8.4	-0.4	53.1%
CINCINNATI @ DETROIT	-3	0.1	3.1	56.9%
SAN FRANCISCO @ TENNESSEE	4.5	16.2	11.7	53.2%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS	4	9.8	5.8	52.1%
CLEVELAND @ GREEN BAY	-10	-11.6	-1.6	52.1%
SAN DIEGO @ JACKSONVILLE	8	12.2	4.2	52.0%
MINNESOTA @ NY GIANTS	-3.5	7.2	10.7	51.0%
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY	-6	-7.8	-1.8	50.0%
DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS	7	8.0	1.0	49.1%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 6 - 2013

Pick 1: New Orleans +1.5
Pick 2: Buffalo +7.5
Pick 3: Dallas -6.5
Pick 4: St Louis +7.5

Ouch, didn't like that first week. That's cool, we'll rebound. The central limit theorem will get us out of this one. I'm feeling better about my picks this week. Definitely more games this week with high probability of success.

This week there's a couple of interesting games. Denver a 27.5 favorite! The worst and best teams in the league battle it out. It can definitely happen, but I'm out on this one. Buffalo a home dog looks promising. I think the spread is underestimating New Orleans, Dallas, and Indi but we'll see.

We continue by betting 15% of bankroll (we'll increase to 18% midseason and 20% for the playoffs). For this week we have a total of 4 picks so we bet evenly across all games, $355 per game. Good luck everyone and the only best ROI for the season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ORLEANS @ NEW ENGLAND	-1.5	5.4	6.9	63.0%
CINCINNATI @ BUFFALO	7.5	-1.5	-9.0	60.0%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS	-6.5	-13	-7.5	58.9%
ST LOUIS @ HOUSTON	-7.5	-1	6.5	58.6%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY	-9	-12.3	-3.3	54.5%
NY GIANTS @ CHICAGO	-8	-13	-5.0	53.5%
TENNESSEE @ SEATTLE	-13.5	-11.2	2.3	51.7%
CAROLINA @ MINNESOTA	-2.5	2.5	5.0	51.6%
PHILADELPHIA @ TAMPA BAY	1.5	4	2.5	50.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ SAN DIEGO	2	8	6.0	50.5%
GREEN BAY @ BALTIMORE	3	6	3.0	50.0%
DETROIT @ CLEVELAND	3	-6	-9.0	50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ DENVER	-27.8	-23.8	4.0	49.1%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO	-12	-16.8	-4.8	49.1%
PITTSBURGH @ NY JETS	-2.5	-6	-3.5	48.8%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 5 - First Official Picks of the Season

Pick 1: Atlanta -9.5
Pick 2: New England 0
Pick 3: Dallas +9

The first official week of NFLpickles point spread picks starts today. I'm very excited for the season and hope that it's another winning season for us all. First a reminder that the most important feature to optimize revenue is personal discipline. No jumping on bets, staying on course with bankroll strategy, and never put all your eggs in one basket or week. Then we remove all our emotions and only judge by what the outcome say. Sometimes they won't make sense and that's ok. Always check for major injuries in each team and remove any bets/games that have these injuries. Remember that this is a law of large numbers play and not a get rich quick scheme. Finally, if you forgot why I started doing this, just read my first post this season.

As for my thoughts on the 3 picks of the weeks are that Atlanta looked well rounded on offense in the last game and I think they will be able to dismantle the Jets. I like New England over Cincinnati and Brady continue to polishing the rookies. Finally, Dallas bet instead of Denver. Denver is being doing well against the spread but as a home underdog where the prediction is not that far off is coming with high confidence, so I have to stick with it. Dallas will keep it a close game and who knows if they might get greedy and try to take it from the Broncos.

We start the season by betting 15% of bankroll. To make it easy for everyone to track, I'm going to use an bankroll of 10,000 simply to be able to track ROI as I've done in previous seasons. For this week we have a total of 3 picks so we bet evenly across all games, $500 per game. Good luck everyone and the only best ROI for the season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NY JETS @ ATLANTA	-9.5	-12.5	-3.0	60.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ CINCINNATI	0	5.3	5.3	59.0%
DENVER @ DALLAS	9	5	-4	58.3%
JACKSONVILLE @ ST LOUIS	-12	-17.9	-5.9	54.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS	-2.5	-2.3	0.2	52.5%
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI	-3	2	5.0	51.5%
HOUSTON @ SAN FRANCISCO	-7	-10.5	-3.5	51.3%
CAROLINA @ ARIZONA	2	3.1	1.1	50.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ CHICAGO	0	-0.7	-0.7	50.0%
BUFFALO @ CLEVELAND	-4	-4.5	-.5	50.0%
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY	-7	-8.8	-1.8	49.9%
SEATTLE @ INDIANAPOLIS	3	2.5	-0.5	49.8%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND	5	6.9	1.9	49.3%
KANSAS CITY @ TENNESSEE	3	-5.5	-8.5	49.1%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4 - 2013

Pick 1: Miami +7
Pick 2: Minnesota +1
Pick 3: New England +2
Pick 4: Chicago +2.5
Pick 5: Tampa Bay -2.5

Selected picks last week went 1-1-2, unfortunately because Denver gave up the ball in the last 2 minutes. This will be the last week of unofficial picks and from week 5 forward we'll start tabulating results and making recommendations of what percentage of bankroll to bet every week. We'll also do a bit more explanation as why we think each game is being selected by the probabilities and understand the results coming out along with some high-level NFL analysis. As always, we run the data through our ensemble of algorithms to product computerized NFL picks. Lots of .5 that might be worth buying a few points, up to you. Here are the NFL week 4 point spread predictions:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
MIAMI @ NEW ORLEANS	-7.0	-0.6	6.4	63.7%
MINNESOTA - PITTSBURGH, London	-1	3.1	4.1	61.4%
NEW ENGLAND @ ATLANTA	-2	4.3	6.3	60.0%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT	-2.5	3.7	6.2	59.0%
ARIZONA @ TAMPA BAY	-2.5	-8.5	-6.0	58.4%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS	4	8.6	4.6	56.5%
PHILADELPHIA @ DENVER	-11.5	-15.5	-4.0	53.4%
WASHINGTON @ OAKLAND	3	3.1	0.1	51.9%
SEATTLE @ HOUSTON	3	3.9	0.9	51.9%
BALTIMORE @ BUFFALO	3.5	1.5	-2.0	50.1%
NY JETS @ TENNESSEE	-4	-2.2	1.8	50.0%
NY GIANTS @ KANSAS CITY	-5	5.0	10.0	50.0%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND	5	2.0	-3.0	49.6%
DALLAS @ SAN DIEGO	2.5	4	1.5	49.3%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE	9.5	8	-1.5	49.1%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.