NFL Point Spread Picks Week 8 - 2013

Pick 1: Denver -13 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Atlanta +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Kansas City -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Last week could have gone better had I checked the injury report. Philadephia should not have been a pick given Vick was out. I'm still banging my head for not seeing that. It's easy to say in retrospect but if we stick to the original rules, that game should have not been a pick regardless of the outcome. In either case, we came out evenly so no big harm done. The next few weeks we need to break away from breaking even and start accumulating to our bankroll.

Few things I like about this week's picks. 1) I like Denver and believe they will bounce back big at home from a loss, 2) KC can score big at home and cover 7. After the fact observations, entertaining nevertheless.

We up the bankroll a bit to use 18% of bankroll for this week. For Week 8 we have a total of 3 NFL game picks so we bet evenly across all games, $600 per game. Here is the full computerized predictions for week 8 of the NFL against the spread.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
WASHINGTON @ DENVER -13 -19.3 -6.3 60.5%
ATLANTA @ ARIZONA -2.5 3.3 5.8 59.1%
CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY -7 -14.3 -7.3 58.6%
SAN FRANCISCO - JACKSONVILLE 17 13.0 -4.0 58.4%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY 6 3.0 -3.0 53.8%
BUFFALO @ NEW ORLEANS -12 -10.3 1.7 53.3%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -4.6 2.4 53.2%
DALLAS @ DETROIT -3 -0.5 2.5 50.7%
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS 11.5 8.2 -3.3 50.6%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA -6 -1.5 4.5 50.3%
PITTSBURGH @ OAKLAND 3 5.2 2.2 49.9%
NY JETS @ CINCINNATI -6.5 -10.2 -3.7 48.9%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA 10 8.3 -1.7 46.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

8 comments:

Buddha Chinaski said...

Important to note that Jacksonville is not at home, the game is being played in London.

Buddha Chinaski said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Alan Hibino said...

I was just going to point out the same thing. Does Jacksonville playing in London have any effect on the pick of the "home dog"

Ryan Jaffe said...

Your lack of awareness that the Jacksonville game is in London is slightly terrifying.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Jacksonville pick removed.

van malatches said...

ahhhhh:

Looks like your week 9 picks are the same as week 8?

Don't think Denver is playing this week, they have a bye?

Just saying.

Joseph Kocour said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
CC said...

In the past have you looked at totals? Also,was wondering if underdogs or favorites have been better plays?