NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15 - 2013

Pick 1: Baltimore +6 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver -10.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Carolina -11 incorrect NFL point spread pick

And back to negative ROI... For this week, NFL predictions below, hoping that Cutler doesn't play for the Bears, if he does this pick might be removed (UPDATE: Bears pick has been removed). Two more weeks of regular season and then we start the playoffs. We're upping our bankroll for the reason of the season to 20% per week. For week 15 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $640 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 15 of 2013.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BALTIMORE @ DETROIT -6 -0.9 5.1 61.9%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER -10.5 -13.9 -3.4 58.5%
NY JETS @ CAROLINA -11 -18.5 -7.5 58.5%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH 3 6.8 3.8 55.1%
SAN FRANCISCO @ TAMPA BAY 6 10.5 4.5 55.1%
ARIZONA @ TENNESSEE 3 0.0 -3.0 53.7%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI 3 1.4 -1.6 53.7%
BUFFALO @ JACKSONVILLE 1.5 3.3 1.8 53.3%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 -8.7 -2.2 51.0%
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA -6.5 -7.2 -0.7 50.0%
SEATTLE @ NY GIANTS 7 11.8 4.8 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND 5 5.2 0.2 49.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ ST LOUIS 6 8.3 2.3 49.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ MINNESOTA 6 -1.1 -7.1 48.1%
CHICAGO @ CLEVELAND -1.5 1.9 3.4 NA
GREEN BAY @ DALLAS NA -1.8 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

6 comments:

Nick Bennett said...

Your KC pick has them at -3 but your grid has them at -5. They are also very low confidence so why is it you like them?

Jaime Brugueras said...

The pick should be Denver not KC. I'll change shortly. It's a typo.

Cort Battles said...

In the past have you looked at totals? Also,was wondering if underdogs or favorites have been better plays?

Jonathon Grant said...

Cort - Don't want to speak for Jaime, but I don't believe he's ever done anything (formal) with totals. As for favs v. dogs, if you're referring to his system, I'm not sure, but in general, dogs tend to outperform favs over the year (not a huge difference - I've got dogs at 51.7% this year).

John Mullrooney said...

The line on the Carolina game moved to -9.5 just before kick-off. using that line, you were 2-1 on the week

Jaime Brugueras said...

Thanks John! I won't change the totals now but I'll make a note of that (between you and me that would have put me at 56.1% for the regular season rather than 53.7%

Cort - Not really but plan to do something in the off season. The percentages I create are somewhat based on totals of the given situation. So in a sense, I look at homedogs etc every week but at a finer detail (e.g. homedog when the spread is around 13 for home and my prediction is around 17).