NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15 - 2013
Pick 1: Baltimore +6 
Pick 2: Denver -10.5
Pick 3: Carolina -11
And back to negative ROI... For this week, NFL predictions below, hoping that Cutler doesn't play for the Bears, if he does this pick might be removed (UPDATE: Bears pick has been removed). Two more weeks of regular season and then we start the playoffs. We're upping our bankroll for the reason of the season to 20% per week. For week 15 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $640 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 15 of 2013.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Denver -10.5
Pick 3: Carolina -11
And back to negative ROI... For this week, NFL predictions below, hoping that Cutler doesn't play for the Bears, if he does this pick might be removed (UPDATE: Bears pick has been removed). Two more weeks of regular season and then we start the playoffs. We're upping our bankroll for the reason of the season to 20% per week. For week 15 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $640 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 15 of 2013.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALTIMORE @ DETROIT | -6 | -0.9 | 5.1 | 61.9% |
| SAN DIEGO @ DENVER | -10.5 | -13.9 | -3.4 | 58.5% |
| NY JETS @ CAROLINA | -11 | -18.5 | -7.5 | 58.5% |
| CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH | 3 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 55.1% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ TAMPA BAY | 6 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 55.1% |
| ARIZONA @ TENNESSEE | 3 | 0.0 | -3.0 | 53.7% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI | 3 | 1.4 | -1.6 | 53.7% |
| BUFFALO @ JACKSONVILLE | 1.5 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 53.3% |
| HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS | -6.5 | -8.7 | -2.2 | 51.0% |
| WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA | -6.5 | -7.2 | -0.7 | 50.0% |
| SEATTLE @ NY GIANTS | 7 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 50.0% |
| KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND | 5 | 5.2 | 0.2 | 49.3% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ ST LOUIS | 6 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 49.0% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ MINNESOTA | 6 | -1.1 | -7.1 | 48.1% |
| CHICAGO @ CLEVELAND | -1.5 | 1.9 | 3.4 | NA |
| GREEN BAY @ DALLAS | NA | -1.8 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
Cort - Not really but plan to do something in the off season. The percentages I create are somewhat based on totals of the given situation. So in a sense, I look at homedogs etc every week but at a finer detail (e.g. homedog when the spread is around 13 for home and my prediction is around 17).