NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14 - 2013
Pick 1: Carolina +4 
Pick 2: Oakland +2.5
Pick 3: Kansas City -3
A great rebound last week to put us finally on positive ROI! First week this year without a pick with over 60% confidence. In other words, all picks are highlighted in yellow. Also this week has all picks for road teams. We're going with the 3 picks listed above without much other further analysis. I did check injury reports, but sometimes they are not updated on Tuesday nights. So please let me know if you see something regarding injuries that you think I should be aware.
I was going to up the percentage to 20 this week, but given that none of the picks are over 60% I'll stick to 18 until we get to the playoffs. For week 14 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $615 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 14 of 2013. Two weeks of picks left before the playoffs since we're on vacation that week :)
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Oakland +2.5
Pick 3: Kansas City -3
A great rebound last week to put us finally on positive ROI! First week this year without a pick with over 60% confidence. In other words, all picks are highlighted in yellow. Also this week has all picks for road teams. We're going with the 3 picks listed above without much other further analysis. I did check injury reports, but sometimes they are not updated on Tuesday nights. So please let me know if you see something regarding injuries that you think I should be aware.
I was going to up the percentage to 20 this week, but given that none of the picks are over 60% I'll stick to 18 until we get to the playoffs. For week 14 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $615 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 14 of 2013. Two weeks of picks left before the playoffs since we're on vacation that week :)
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS | -4 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 58.2% |
| OAKLAND @ NY JETS | -2.5 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 58.2% |
| KANSAS CITY @ WASHINGTON | 3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 58.1% |
| CLEVELAND @ NEW ENGLAND | -13 | -17.7 | -4.7 | 57.5% |
| DETROIT @ PHILADELPHIA | -3 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 56.2% |
| HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE | 3 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 52.1% |
| TENNESSEE @ DENVER | -13 | -14.1 | -1.1 | 52.1% |
| NY GIANTS @ SAN DIEGO | -3.5 | -5.1 | -1.6 | 51.9% |
| ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA | -6 | -3.2 | 2.8 | 51.0% |
| MINNESOTA @ BALTIMORE | -7 | -6.2 | 0.8 | 50.5% |
| MIAMI @ PITTSBURGH | -3.5 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 50.2% |
| BUFFALO @ TAMPA BAY | -3 | -3.2 | -0.2 | 49.9% |
| SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO | -2.5 | -6.7 | -4.2 | 49.0% |
| DALLAS @ CHICAGO | 2 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 48.5% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ CINCINNATI | -6 | -2.2 | 3.8 | 48.4% |
| ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY | NA | -8.6 | NA | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
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