NFL Point Spread Picks Week 6 - 2013

Pick 1: New Orleans +1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Buffalo +7.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Dallas -6.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: St Louis +7.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Ouch, didn't like that first week. That's cool, we'll rebound. The central limit theorem will get us out of this one. I'm feeling better about my picks this week. Definitely more games this week with high probability of success.

This week there's a couple of interesting games. Denver a 27.5 favorite! The worst and best teams in the league battle it out. It can definitely happen, but I'm out on this one. Buffalo a home dog looks promising. I think the spread is underestimating New Orleans, Dallas, and Indi but we'll see.

We continue by betting 15% of bankroll (we'll increase to 18% midseason and 20% for the playoffs). For this week we have a total of 4 picks so we bet evenly across all games, $355 per game. Good luck everyone and the only best ROI for the season.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ORLEANS @ NEW ENGLAND -1.5 5.4 6.9 63.0%
CINCINNATI @ BUFFALO 7.5 -1.5 -9.0 60.0%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS -6.5 -13 -7.5 58.9%
ST LOUIS @ HOUSTON -7.5 -1 6.5 58.6%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY -9 -12.3 -3.3 54.5%
NY GIANTS @ CHICAGO -8 -13 -5.0 53.5%
TENNESSEE @ SEATTLE -13.5 -11.2 2.3 51.7%
CAROLINA @ MINNESOTA -2.5 2.5 5.0 51.6%
PHILADELPHIA @ TAMPA BAY 1.5 4 2.5 50.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ SAN DIEGO 2 8 6.0 50.5%
GREEN BAY @ BALTIMORE 3 6 3.0 50.0%
DETROIT @ CLEVELAND 3 -6 -9.0 50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ DENVER -27.8 -23.8 4.0 49.1%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO -12 -16.8 -4.8 49.1%
PITTSBURGH @ NY JETS -2.5 -6 -3.5 48.8%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

10 comments:

Alan Hibino said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Alan Hibino said...

$500 a game is 20% of your bankroll

Scott Luning said...

I would consider dropping the Buffalo pick due to the EJ Manuel injury and thus the practice squad starter.

Also, two of your 'Prediction-Vegas' lines don't seem to add up (Carolina and Cleveland) - do you do those calculations by hand?

Jaime Brugueras said...

Good catches both of you. The betting strategy is a bit manual/copy pasting from Excel. The calculations are not manual but it does grab estimates from various predictions and the merge function was not working properly, hopefully now this prediction - spread is corrected. Thanks again.

Jonathon Grant said...

Hey Jaime,

I asked a question on list weeks post, but didn't get a response. If you don't want to answer it, that's fine, but could you let me know if that's the case? Here's the question again:

I have a question about your estimate and confidence. How do you calculate them? I have a stats degree myself, and if I was doing this, I would have set the estimate to be the median, and the confidence would represent the probability of the team covering the Vegas line. Inherently, the confidence would always be at least 50% that way. However, you usually have a few games under 50%. I'm curious as to how you estimated that Tennessee should be -5.5, but the probability of them covering +3 was under 50%.

par88 said...

Just found your blog... its very interesting. I'm really curious about the statistical calculations used in coming up w/ your lines. Have you ever posted that? Do you ever intend do?

Ryan Jaffe said...

Where is week 7?

Jaime Brugueras said...

@jonathan and @parr I have talked about the methodology at a high level in different posts on the blog and comments.

I've been traveling a lot this week. Will get the results out tonight, unfortunately not in time for Thursday Night Football

Ryan Jaffe said...

Thanks, Jamie! Good work. Keep it up.

Jaime Brugueras said...

I put the week 7 picks. Seattle is a pick, quickly grab it if you can.