NFL Point Spread Picks - Thanksgiving Week

Pick 1: Indianapolis -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Carolina -8 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Cincinnati +2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Arizona +3 PUSH

Surprisingly a total 5 picks this week. None of them happening on Thursday so we can all relax and enjoy the time with the family :) I'm more dissapointed in this year's results than anyone else. I still do have hope that they will somehow turn around and that we end up with a good ROI for the year.

We continue to use 18% of bankroll. For week 13 of the NFL, we have a total of 4 predictions for a total of $420 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 13 of 2013.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 -6.4 -1.9 62.5%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -8 -14.5 -6.5 59.2%
CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO -2 1.7 3.7 58.5%
ARIZONA @ PHILADELPHIA -3 2.6 5.6 58.2%
MIAMI @ NY JETS -1 2.6 3.6 53.8%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON 1.5 -5.8 -7.3 54.5%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE -3 -5.9 -2.9 52.6%
ATLANTA @ BUFFALO -3.5 -1.3 2.2 50.0%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA -1 -0.5 0.5 50.0%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY 5 5.1 0.1 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT -6.5 3.8 10.3 49.3%
OAKLAND @ DALLAS -9.5 -8.5 1.0 48.1%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO -9 -19.3 -10.3 47.4%
NEW ENGLAND @ HOUSTON 9 7.1 -1.9 47.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ SEATTLE -6 -2.1 3.9 46.4%
JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND -6.5 -11.7 -5.2 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2 comments:

Alan Hibino said...

Jamie, Cleveland is starting backup QB Brandon Weeden due to starting QB out with a concussion. Is this injury factored into your pick of Cleveland this week? Thanks!

Jaime Brugueras said...

No, thanks for letting me know. Pick removed.