NFL Point Spread Picks Week 7 - 2013
Pick 1: Baltimore +1.5 
Pick 2: Carolina -6.5
Pick 3: Philadelphia -2.5
Pick 4: Seattle -5.5
Very little time to talk this week. t-10 minutes til the kickoff of Thursday's game. Great week last week!
We continue by betting 15% of bankroll. For Week 7 we have a total of 4 picks so we bet evenly across all games, $375 per game. Good luck everyone and the only best ROI for the season.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Carolina -6.5
Pick 3: Philadelphia -2.5
Pick 4: Seattle -5.5
Very little time to talk this week. t-10 minutes til the kickoff of Thursday's game. Great week last week!
We continue by betting 15% of bankroll. For Week 7 we have a total of 4 picks so we bet evenly across all games, $375 per game. Good luck everyone and the only best ROI for the season.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH | -1.5 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 60.7% |
| ST LOUIS @ CAROLINA | -6.5 | -13.5 | -7 | 60.3% |
| DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA | -2.5 | -4.8 | -2.3 | 59.6% |
| SEATTLE @ ARIZONA | 5.5 | 8 | 2.5 | 59.0% |
| CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON | -1 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 54.0% |
| TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA | -7 | -7.2 | -0.2 | 53.1% |
| BUFFALO @ MIAMI | -8 | -8.4 | -0.4 | 53.1% |
| CINCINNATI @ DETROIT | -3 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 56.9% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ TENNESSEE | 4.5 | 16.2 | 11.7 | 53.2% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS | 4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 52.1% |
| CLEVELAND @ GREEN BAY | -10 | -11.6 | -1.6 | 52.1% |
| SAN DIEGO @ JACKSONVILLE | 8 | 12.2 | 4.2 | 52.0% |
| MINNESOTA @ NY GIANTS | -3.5 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 51.0% |
| HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | -6 | -7.8 | -1.8 | 50.0% |
| DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS | 7 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 49.1% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
My hunch is that you have 8 or 10 Vegas Line columns, and 10 or 8 Estimate rows (from the model). It's irrelevant exactly how it's set up, but have you looked at smoothing the performance of the buckets? E.g. if a bucket is only hitting 75%, but all its adjacent buckets are only hitting 40%, is the 75% accurate, or could it just be noise.
I think some form of smoothing could be useful. Looking at week 2 (unofficial, I know), STL@ATL and SD@PHI both had lines of -7. Your estimates were -.2 and +3 respectively. It doesn't make sense to me that you could be more confident in the -.2 game than the +3 game.
Not trying to be critical. I've been using this site for years and love it - just want to throw some ideas out and see if you've looked at them already or want to consider them.
Cheers