NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16 - 2013

Pick 1: St Louis -5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis +7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New England +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Francisco -13 incorrect NFL point spread pick

We continue our struggles this year with last week going again 1-2 (by merely one point away from going 2-1). Many of you have asked me to do a broader study on trends regarding homedogs, division and other things that we should probably at least be aware of. I promise I will do so at least in the off-season if not before. Now that I've just started my vacation, I might grab a night to query my 15 year database and see what comes out. I can't promise anything soon as I'm expecting a new member of the family some time soon and don't know how all that will pan out. This will be the last week of regular season picks and then we'll go strong on the playoffs and will hopefully continue my average of 55% during playoffs.
For the second week in a row, we use 20% of bankroll for the 4 picks above. That's $455 per pick. See table below for automated predictions of NFL games week 16 against the spread.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ ST LOUIS -5 -7.4 -2.4 62.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ KANSAS CITY -7 -4.8 2.2 61.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ BALTIMORE -2.5 1.1 3.6 58.1%
ATLANTA @ SAN FRANCISCO -13 -18.2 -5.2 57.5%
NY GIANTS @ DETROIT -9 -7.8 1.2 54.8%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON 3 1.9 -1.1 53.7%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE -10.5 -12.9 -2.4 53.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA -3.5 -6.4 -2.9 51.9%
DENVER @ HOUSTON 10.5 14.8 4.3 51.9%
MINNESOTA @ CINCINNATI -7.5 -9.0 -1.5 51.0%
CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA -3 -0.6 2.4 50.3%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 6.7 1.2 50.0%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO 3 2.8 -0.2 49.9%
CLEVELAND @ NY JETS -2 -6.5 -4.5 49.3%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO -10 -9.4 0.6 48.1%
PITTSBURGH @ GREEN BAY 0 -6.4 -6.4 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2 comments:

Kourosh Doe said...

Congrats to the new edition to your family!!! With the season winding down, I was curious if you've ever thought of doing this for College Football? Maybe for next season??

Jaime Brugueras said...

Hi Kourosh,

Yes, I've thought about college football but seems like too much work. Statistically speaking, it would be a lot harder to predict given the changes in players every year, given that there are much more teams that don't play each other. So I've thought about it, but I don't think I'll do it any time soon. Especially now with the new addition to the family :) Thanks!