Week 17 2012 NFL Non-Official Point Spread Picks

No official picks this week as most week 17s in the past years. Although I have no statistical proof, I hypothesize that teams on playoffs or already out, tend to behave differently in this week. It is not worth the risk when using computer NFL picks. We better save our energies and complete our successful season with playoffs picks.

I know many of you will still go ahead and use my picks, so I'll post them here anyways. It's going to be a very interesting week 17 especially for NFC games. Go Bears! Good luck and until the playoffs.
GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA -4 -9.2 -5.2 62.3%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO -3.5 1.5 5.0 60.4%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS -5 -3.0 2.0 58.9%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE -4 -3.5 0.5 55.0%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON -3 -4.3 -1.3 52.6%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO -7 -13.7 -6.7 52.1%
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH -6 -8.8 -2.8 51.9%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS -7 -9.0 -2.0 51.9%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT 3 5.3 2.3 50.7%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI -2.5 -1.3 1.2 50.6%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE -11 -9.4 1.6 50.0%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO -16.5 -15.3 1.2 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA 3 3.5 0.5 50.0%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND -10 -9.8 0.2 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER -16 -24.5 -8.5 49.5%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS 7 5.6 -1.4 49.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 16 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: New England -14 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New Orleans +3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Diego +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Green Bay -13 correct NFL point spread pick

We follow another good week with four NFL picks, two of which are bets on huge blowouts. There might not be official picks for week 17 unless two teams are a pick and contending for the playoffs.

We keep week 16 at 20% of bankroll; this week we have $300 a game for 4 games. Below is the complete list of our NFL computerized predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ JACKSONVILLE 14 22.4 7.9 60.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ DALLAS -3 0.8 3.8 59.6%
SAN DIEGO @ NY JETS -2.5 1.2 3.7 59.6%
TENNESSEE @ GREEN BAY -13 -18.0 -5.0 59.0%
MINNESOTA @ HOUSTON -7.5 -5.5 2.0 55.8%
INDIANAPOLIS @ KANSAS CITY 6.5 9.4 2.9 50.0%
CHICAGO @ ARIZONA 5.5 1.5 -4.0 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA 4.5 6.1 1.6 50.0%
ATLANTA @ DETROIT 4 5.3 1.3 50.0%
OAKLAND @ CAROLINA -8.5 -16.2 -7.7 50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE 1 2.4 1.4 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH -4 -2.7 1.3 50.0%
ST LOUIS @ TAMPA BAY -3 -3.7 -0.7 49.9%
NY GIANTS @ BALTIMORE 2.5 1.5 -1.0 49.9%
CLEVELAND @ DENVER -13.5 -15 -1.5 49.0%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI -4.5 -10.7 -6.2 48.5%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 15 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Seattle -5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: NY Jets +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Miami -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Washington +1 correct NFL point spread pick

UPDATE: revised Washington pick for an accurate point spread measure, still a pick. Introduced Jets pick that barely had made the 58% confidence cut. Good luck.

We follow a good week with three NFL picks, some of which might seem risky. Especially not knowing if Griffith III will play for the Redskins we stay with the pick hoping the backup, if he plays, can deliver as he did in last week's final drive against BAL. The computerized picks also choose Seattle and Miami to steamroll against their opponents. Other potential picks that didn't make the cut are MIN, BAL, and CHI.

We increase week 15 to 20% of bankroll and should keep this until the playoffs; this week we have $300 a game for 4 games.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ BUFFALO 5 10.3 5.3 60.1%
NY JETS @ TENNESSEE -1 7.4 8.4 59.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ MIAMI -7 -15.5 -8.5 58.0%
WASHINGTON @ CLEVELAND -1 3.0 4 58.0%
MINNESOTA @ ST LOUIS -3 -1.0 2.0 57.0%
DENVER @ BALTIMORE 2.5 -3 -5.5 56.8%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO 2.5 -0.8 -3.3 55.8%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -3 -4.4 -1.4 53.3%
NY GIANTS @ ATLANTA -1.5 0.4 1.9 52.6%
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON -8.5 -11.0 -2.5 51.9%
PITTSBURGH @ DALLAS 0 -3.0 -3.0 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND -2.5 -2.6 -0.1 50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ENGLAND -4 -4.4 -0.4 49.5%
CAROLINA @ SAN DIEGO -3 -3.4 -0.4 49.5%
CINCINNATI @ PHILADELPHIA 3 2.7 -0.3 48.9%
DETROIT @ ARIZONA 6 -3.3 -9.3 48.6%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 14 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: St. Louis +3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver -10 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: NY Jets -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Indianapolis -5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Two weeks of losses so it's time to get up. Our computer is now weighing heavier this season than the last. You can see it reflected in this week's picks. We have three visiting teams as picks and Indianapolis at home favorite.Three weeks left of picks in the regular season and then playoffs.

We continue week 14 at 18% of bankroll which decreased this week because of last week's loss; now to $245 a game for four games.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ST LOUIS @ BUFFALO -3 3.0 6.0 62.9%
DENVER @ OAKLAND 10 17.3 7.3 59.5%
NY JETS @ JACKSONVILLE 2.5 12.9 10.4 58.5%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS -5.5 -9.5 -4.0 58.3%
KANSAS CITY @ CLEVELAND -5.5 -8.8 -3.3 55.8%
DALLAS @ CINCINNATI -3 -4.9 -1.9 53.3%
HOUSTON @ NEW ENGLAND -4 -5.5 -1.5 53.3%
MIAMI @ SAN FRANCISCO -10 -10.5 -0.5 52.6%
BALTIMORE @ WASHINGTON -1.5 -0.1 1.4 52.6%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA 3 5 2 51.7%
PHILADELPHIA @ TAMPA BAY -7 -9.2 -2.2 50.9%
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY -6.5 -9.0 -2.5 50.9%
NEW ORLEANS @ NY GIANTS -5 -3.1 1.9 50.0%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE -10.5 -8.8 1.7 50.0%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA 3.5 5.1 1.6 49.3%
SAN DIEGO @ PITTSBURGH OFF -3.3


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 13 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: NY Jets -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Houston -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Diego +1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Cleveland PK correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Carolina -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Five picks and teams who should blowout their competition but yet the spread is very tight. Bummer last week but saved from doom by a last minute Baltimore win. Hoping to go back to 60% with these NFL picks.

We continue week 13 at 18% of bankroll which decreased this week because of last week's loss; now to $215 a game

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ARIZONA @ NY JETS -4.5 -7 -2.5 62.5%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE 5.5 12.0 6.5 60.1%
CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO 1.5 -3 -4.5 58.4%
CLEVELAND @ OAKLAND 0 3 3 58.3%
CAROLINA @ KANSAS CITY 3 7.3 4.3 58.3%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON 2.5 -1.3 -3.8 56.0%
TAMPA BAY @ DENVER -7 -5.0 2.0 55.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ BUFFALO -6 -4.8 1.2 55.8%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DETROIT -4.5 -9.4 -4.9 53.8%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY -9 -14.1 -5.1 51.6%
SEATTLE @ CHICAGO -4 -2.6 1.4 50.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA -3.5 -0.5 3.0 50.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS -9 -6.9 2.1 50.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS 7 12.2 5.2 49.8%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI 7.5 8.1 0.6 48.1%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE OFF -7.1


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 12 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Atlanta -1 PUSH
Pick 2: Arizona -2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New Orleans +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Baltimore -1 correct NFL point spread pick

Unfortunately, none of the Thanksgiving day games were picked through our computerized NFL pick predictor. There are a lot of homedogs this week (KC at +10.5), but we are only betting on one, New Orleans. I have not much else to say than to wish you all good luck and a Happy Thanksgiving week.
We continue this week at 18% of bankroll. For 4 games this week, it gives us a total of $280 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY 1 2.7 1.7 63.3%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA -2.5 -7.8 -5.3 62.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ORLEANS 2.5 -2.2 -4.7 59.0%
BALTIMORE @ SAN DIEGO 1 3.5 2.5 58.3%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE 3 -0.1 -3.1 56.0%
OAKLAND @ CINCINNATI -8 -8.0 0.0 55.2%
SEATTLE @ MIAMI 3 1.5 -1.5 52.6%
BUFFALO @ INDIANAPOLIS -3 3.2 6.2 52.5%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY 10.5 12.0 1.5 50.0%
HOUSTON @ DETROIT 3 5.8 2.8 50.0%
CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA -2.5 -0.4 2.1 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS -3.5 -3.6 -0.1 49.9%
GREEN BAY @ NY GIANTS -2.5 4.6 7.1 49.8%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND 1.5 2.2 0.7 48.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS 6.5 3.7 -2.8 47.6%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO NA -7.1


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 11 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Baltimore +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New Orleans -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Green Bay -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Rough week last week but at least we're still above water. Hoping for a 3-0 this week and I'm liking what came out of these computerized picks this week. Three undervalue visiting teams. All having good momentum going and coming out of great wins.

We continue this week at 18% of bankroll. For 3 games this week, it gives us a total of $320 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH -3.5 3.1 6.6 62.9%
NEW ORLEANS @ OAKLAND 4.5 9.4 4.9 56.5%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT 3.5 6.7 3.2 56.5%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER -7.5 -4.8 2.7 55.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON -3 -4.5 -1.5 52.7%
CLEVELAND @ DALLAS -7.5 -9.7 -2.2 50.9%
CHICAGO @ SAN FRANCISCO -5 -4.0 1.0 50.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON -16 -18.9 -2.9 50.0%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO -1.5 3.2 4.7 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ KANSAS CITY 3.5 6.4 2.9 49.8%
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA -10 -9.1 0.9 49.1%
KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH -13 -12.7 0.3 49.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND -9 -18.4 -9.4 48.7%
NY JETS @ ST LOUIS -3 5.4 8.4 48.4%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA 1.5 -2.1 -3.6 47.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 10 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: San Diego +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Carolina +4 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Baltimore -7.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Francisco -11.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced this is a long-tail play. We've had 3 successful years, a break-even, and a big loss. That makes our record at 3-1-1. There will be years where it will fail. We only hope for continued success this year and the ones to come.

This week we bet two (heavy) favorites and two underdog, one of them at home. I like the big favorites. These are games where the system is trying to predict a big blowout. Although last week we were on the wrong side of the Bears blowout. 

As we continue the success and the season progresses, as always we increase risk. Now we move to 18% of bankroll. For 4 games this week, it gives us a total of $265 per week.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ TAMPA BAY -3 1 4 60.0%
DENVER @ CAROLINA 4 -1 -5 59.2%
OAKLAND @ BALTIMORE -7.5 -11.1 -3.6 59.1%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO -11.5 -16.6 -5.1 58.3%
NY GIANTS @ CINCINNATI 4 7 3 57.6%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA -1 1 2.0 56.0%
HOUSTON @ CHICAGO -1.5 -0.9 0.6 56.0%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND -11 -17.9 -6.9 51.6%
TENNESSEE @ MIAMI -6 -9.3 -3.3 51.1%
KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH -12.5 -14.1 -1.6 50.1%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS 2.5 -3.5 -6.0 50.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE 3 -2.4 -5.4 49.9.3%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA 2 4 2 49.7%
NY JETS @ SEATTLE -6.5 -1.6 4.9 49.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 9 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: New Orleans -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Baltimore -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Indianapolis +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Tennessee +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Statfox, the main site where I get most of my stats, has been down this week. I think it is due to hurricane Sandy but I'm not sure nor have they said anything on Twitter.

I don't buy the streaks that handicappers come up with. It is pure coincidence. For example, a basic one like homedogs are 61% this year or more complex ones like teams with less than 7 turnovers, 200yds passing/game, and QB is white are 76% ATS. Well this week we are going with two homedogs and against one homedog (BAL). New Orleans favorite at home as the top pick. Good luck.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PHILADELPHIA @ NEW ORLEANS -3 -10.0 -7.0 67.5%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND 3.5 7.3 3.8 59.5%
MIAMI @ INDIANAPOLIS 2.5 -3 -5.5 58.7%
CHICAGO @ TENNESSEE 3.5 -2 -5.5 58.7%
DENVER @ CINCINNATI 3.5 0.9 -2.6 54.1%
MINNESOTA @ SEATTLE -5 -8.2 -3.2 53.8%
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON -3 -5.3 -2.3 52.1%
DALLAS @ ATLANTA -4 -5.2 -1.2 52.1%
DETROIT @ JACKSONVILLE 3.5 2 -1.5 51.9%
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON -10.5 -15.7 -5.2 51.6%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO -7.5 -13.8 -6.3 51.1%
ARIZONA @ GREEN BAY -11 -12.9 -1.9 51.1%
TAMPA BAY @ OAKLAND -1.5 -2.2 -0.7 50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ NY GIANTS -3 -6.1 -3.1 49.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 8 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Seattle +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Oakland +2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Atlanta +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Diego -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

4 away team picks this week, 3 of them are underdogs. We're again going with 15% of bankroll for 4 games giving us $210 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ DETROIT -3 2 5 59.0%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY -2 1.2 3.2 58.8%
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA -2.5 2.1 4.6 58.5%
SAN DIEGO @ CLEVELAND 3 6.7 3.7 58.3%
WASHINGTON @ PITTSBURGH -5 -2.6 2.4 55.6%
NEW ORLEANS @ DENVER -6 2.5 8.5 54.3%
JACKSONVILLE @ GREEN BAY -13.5 -19.5 -6.0 52.6%
CAROLINA @ CHICAGO -7.5 -9.0 -1.5 51.0%
MIAMI @ NY JETS -2.5 -7.0 -4.5 50.3%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE -3.5 -8.2 -4.7 50.3%
TAMPA BAY @ MINNESOTA -6.5 -3.0 3.5 49.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ ST LOUIS 7 13.1 6.1 48.8%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA 6.5 4.2 -2.3 48.0%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS 1 -2.1 -3.1 48.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 7 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Chicago -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Washington +6.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New Orleans -3 correct NFL point spread pick

3 picks this week: my beloved Bears, repeating Washington this week, and the struggling Saints. I also like the point difference in the predictor for Green Bay but the percentage wasn't there. We're again going with 15% of bankroll for 3 games giving us $245 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DETROIT @ CHICAGO -5.5 -8.0 -2.5 62.5%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS -6.5 -3.5 3.0 59.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY 3 7.2 4.2 58.5%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO -7.5 -5.6 1.9 55.8%
BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON -6.5 -3.5 3.0 55.8%
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA -6 1.9 7.9 52.9%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI 2.5 -4.6 -7.1 52.5%
TENNESSEE @ BUFFALO -3 -5.0 -2.0 52.1%
GREEN BAY @ ST LOUIS 5.5 13.6 8.1 51.0%
CLEVELAND @ INDIANAPOLIS -3 3.7 6.7 50.9%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND -10.5 -9.2 1.3 50.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ OAKLAND -4 -7.9 -3.9 49.3%
DALLAS @ CAROLINA 2 1 -1 49.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 6 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Miami -3.5 PUSH (with insurance)
Pick 2: Washington -1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Baltimore -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Francisco -5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Surprisingly 4 home team favorites for this week's point spread picks. I'm personally more biased towards the yellow picks given how well the 49ers are playing and how bad the Cowboys are doing. We're again going with 15% of bankroll for 4 games giving us $190 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ST LOUIS @ MIAMI -3.5 -8.7 -5.2 67.5%
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON -1.5 -7 -5.5 62.6%
DALLAS @ BALTIMORE -3.5 -11.7 -8.2 59.1%
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO -5 -10.0 -5.0 58.8%
DETROIT @ PHILADELPHIA -4.5 -7.1 -2.6 55.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ SEATTLE 3.5 1.5 -2.0 54.1%
KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY -3.5 -3.0 0.5 53.8%
BUFFALO @ ARIZONA -4.5 -15.7 -11.2 51.6%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO -2 -3.9 -1.9 51.4%
PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE 5 6.8 1.8 50.7%
OAKLAND @ ATLANTA -8.5 -20.0 -11.5 50.4%
GREEN BAY @ HOUSTON -4 -7.8 -3.8 50.3%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY JETS -3 -12.1 -9.1 50.1%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND 2 1.9 -0.1 49.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 5 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Arizona -1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Francisco -9.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Green Bay -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Seattle +3 correct NFL point spread pick

Official picks start this week 5. That means that I will start keeping track of results and tabulating them on the top right table titled 2012 ATS Record.We should have enough data from this season (with the help of weighting) to start betting on teams that are very different from last season, e.g. Denver.

This project started in 2006 when I was in grad school (Statistics at UIC) and a Finance professor gave a lecture on some technique he used to measure and predict results in figure skating. Statistically, it was interesting, the sport not so much. So I started tinkering with data and talking with him. By mid-season 2007, I started running a model and posting results on this blog. I did it more as a personal journal and force myself to make picks every week. Although 95% is automatic, there is still a judgement call on games that I decide not to bet on (because of injuries, weather, or some other significant issue not accounted in the data I have).

In the second half of 2007, I made 59% of correct picks against the spread. 2008 I broke even with 52%. 2009 I hit a record high 62%. In 2010 I was applying Kelly's formula and betting higher on games from the second half of the season and although I went only slightly above 52% ATS, money gains were at 17%. In 2011 we hit rock bottom with 43.6% ATS.

We've had our ups and downs, but I still enjoy doing this. I enjoy NFL games more after analyzing this data and putting a little you know what well you know where. The point is that I'm probably one of the few handicappers (although I consider myself more of a Statistician) that year after year puts results out there for everyone to see, at no cost, without any tricks. Take them as they are: free NFL picks against the spread, that's all. You won't see me blabber much throughout the season nor analyze each of the picks. Again, 95% is a computer making NFL picks.

I do have a feeling that visiting teams have a bit of a bias with my current model even though there is a home field advantage adjustment. The model also favors heavy favorites, especially if they are at home. Those are the only two things I've noticed and both are actually present in this week's point spread picks. OK well without further a due, here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 5 of the 2012 NFL season.

UPDATE: I forgot to put the bankroll amount. We're doing the lower bound for the beginning of the season which is 15% of bankroll  for 5 games gives us a bet of $150 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS 1.5 7.5 6.0 66.7%
BUFFALO @ SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 -16.0 -6.5 60.5%
PHILADELPHIA @ PITTSBURGH -3.5 1.0 4.5 59.0%
GREEN BAY @ INDIANAPOLIS 7 17.7 10.7 58.9%
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA -3 0.7 3.7 58.0%
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON 3 0.1 -2.9 54.1%
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -15.0 -8.0 51.4%
CLEVELAND @ NY GIANTS -9 -10.9 -1.9 51.1%
BALTIMORE @ KANSAS CITY 5 11.4 6.4 51.1%
HOUSTON @ NY JETS 7.5 1.8 -5.7 50.0%
MIAMI @ CINCINNATI -4 -1.9 2.1 50.0%
CHICAGO @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 7.5 2.0 50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ NEW ORLEANS -3.5 -6.7 -3.2 49.3%
TENNESSEE @ MINNESOTA -5.5 -1.5 4.0 48.4%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2012 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4

Pick 1: Washington +2
Pick 2: San Diego -1.5
Pick 3: Seattle -3

Last minute due to a business trip. I'm just happy I was able to get them out. It's 3 hours before game time and 3 visiting teams we would be betting on. Next week, we officially start keeping track and making bets. Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 4 of the 2012 NFL season.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
WASHINGTON @ TAMPA BAY -2 4.8 6.8 62.9%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY 1.5 4.4 2.9 60.1%
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS 3 10.5 7.5 59.1%
CINCINNATI @ JACKSONVILLE 1 3.4 2.4 57.1%
OAKLAND @ DENVER -7 -4.2 2.8 56.8%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT -4 -8.6 -4.6 55.9%
NEW ORLEANS @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -4.9 2.6 55.8%
MIAMI @ ARIZONA -5 -3.6 1.4 55.6%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NY JETS 4.5 1.9 -2.6 54.1%
CHICAGO @ DALLAS -3.5 -3.0 0.5 53.8%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA -2.5 -2.3 0.2 53.8%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO 4 11.0 7.0 51.1%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON -12 -10.6 1.4 48.1%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA -7 -9.5 -2.5 48.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Spread Picks 2012 Week 3

Pick 1: Green Bay -3
Pick 2: Chicago -7
Pick 3: Oakland +3.5

Thanks for all the encouragement after missing last week's picks. Although we don't fully start counting results until week 5, I've never missed a week in 5 years. Last year was tough but I shouldn't give up and I won't. We've had great years too. I'm changing a few things on the algorithms which will be back-tested and hope to find one that's more successful. I'll try to publish these NFL spread picks a lot sooner than Saturday night in the coming weeks.

This week two NFC North teams come out as having great chances of winning against the spread. I of course like the Chicago pick, go Bears, and if Green Bay's defense looks as solid as last Thursday then I'm confident we'll get at least 2 of 3. Final pick is Oakland underdog at home. That's enough bla, bla, bla which we'll be seeing less of and just concentrate on providing

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 3 of the 2012 NFL season.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE 3 5.6 2.6 64.9%
ST LOUIS @ CHICAGO -7 -12.6 -5.6 63.9%
PITTSBURGH @ OAKLAND 3.5 -1.0 -4.5 58.7%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS -3 1.3 4.3 58.0%
HOUSTON @ DENVER 2 5.0 3.0 57.1%
PHILADELPHIA @ ARIZONA 3 5 2.0 54.1%
DETROIT @ TENNESSEE 3.5 5 1.5 54.1%
TAMPA BAY @ DALLAS -8 -13.2 -5.2 51.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ BALTIMORE -2.5 -0.4 2.1 50.0%
ATLANTA @ SAN DIEGO -3 -1.1 1.9 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ORLEANS -8.5 -18.9 -10.4 49.8%
CINCINNATI @ WASHINGTON -3 -8.0 -5.0 48.7%
BUFFALO @ CLEVELAND 3 5.1 2.1 48.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ MINNESOTA 7 4 -3 47.3%
NY JETS @ MIAMI 2 5 3 47.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 1

Pick 1: Minnesota -3.5
Pick 2: Jets -3
Pick 3: New Orleans -7.5

Whew! Almost didn't even make for Sunday's games. As always, these picks are unofficial as we start counting, usually, on week 5. There are a couple of reasons why this year's first week picks are posted so late in the week and I'm hoping to improve it as the season progresses.
  • Like everyone, automated emails keep me busy
  • There are a few factors in the algorithm that I'm working on:
    • weighting - some people call it the "forgetting factor"
    • thresholding - measurements taken to decrease the impact of high margin games
    • defensive and offensive impact on forecasts
  • family - I love my kids and prefer spending time with them. Which then is taking a larger toll on my nights
There are still two flaws in the model that I have not been able to address or put time into:
1. How to account for strength of schedule in the forecasts
2. Injury impact on result of games (the only solution here would start with player level data which I don't have)

I'm first going to work on the first few I mentioned. Now being part of a tech space in Chicago, it is easier to recruit a partner in crime so we can really improve this. We update our software every week! And here, I haven't touched or revised the algorithm in two years.

We're glad to have been able to post these so that our friends at thepredictiontracker.com can continue to track our success throughout the year.

Again, these are unofficial picks to allow the model a few weeks to capture some of this year's data.
























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
JACKSONVILLE @ MINNESOTA -3.5 -8.4 -4.9 59%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS -3 -6.1 -3.1 58%
WASHINGTON @ NEW ORLEANS -7.5 -4.0 3.5 58%
ST LOUIS @ DETROIT -8.5 -3.2 5.3 56%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY 2.5 -0.6 -3.1 56%
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY -4.5 -9.3 -4.8 56%
PHILADELPHIA @ CLEVELAND 9.5 8.9 -0.6 55%
MIAMI @ HOUSTON -13 -2.2 10.8 54%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CHICAGO -10 -3 7 53%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA 2.5 -10.7 -13.2 47%
NEW ENGLAND @ TENNESSEE 5 -6.9 -11.9 46%
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -7 -19.3 -12.3 46%
ATLANTA @ KANSAS CITY 2.5 10.1 7.6 42%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND -1 9.2 10.2 41%
PITTSBURGH @ DENVER -1.5 15.1 16.6 41%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 Conference Playoffs Spread Picks

Pick 1: New England -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Francisco -2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Is anyone still paying attention to this? I sure now have lost all hope on the current model. For a second I thought that at least in the playoffs it was continuing to perform well, until last week.

For this year's conference playoff picks, the home teams prevail. I personally without using this would think that the Giants and Patriots would win and cover. Given their experience in these situations, I believe Flacco will choke and Manning will take over. But I have to stick with what the model says and believe a new team and QB will come out of the NFL to go to the Super Bowl.

This week we'll play 25% of whatever is left of the bankroll. Giving us $260 per game for a total of $520.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for the Conference playoffs of the 2011 NFL season.




























GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND-7-10-365.6%
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO-2.5-7.4-4.959.9%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.