Week 6 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Miami -3.5 PUSH (with insurance)
Pick 2: Washington -1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Baltimore -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Francisco -5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Surprisingly 4 home team favorites for this week's point spread picks. I'm personally more biased towards the yellow picks given how well the 49ers are playing and how bad the Cowboys are doing. We're again going with 15% of bankroll for 4 games giving us $190 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ST LOUIS @ MIAMI -3.5 -8.7 -5.2 67.5%
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON -1.5 -7 -5.5 62.6%
DALLAS @ BALTIMORE -3.5 -11.7 -8.2 59.1%
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO -5 -10.0 -5.0 58.8%
DETROIT @ PHILADELPHIA -4.5 -7.1 -2.6 55.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ SEATTLE 3.5 1.5 -2.0 54.1%
KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY -3.5 -3.0 0.5 53.8%
BUFFALO @ ARIZONA -4.5 -15.7 -11.2 51.6%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO -2 -3.9 -1.9 51.4%
PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE 5 6.8 1.8 50.7%
OAKLAND @ ATLANTA -8.5 -20.0 -11.5 50.4%
GREEN BAY @ HOUSTON -4 -7.8 -3.8 50.3%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY JETS -3 -12.1 -9.1 50.1%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND 2 1.9 -0.1 49.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

4 comments:

Jaime said...

Not bad! Overall 64% correct ATS and 60% on chosen picks.

probablepicks.com said...

Congrats on your solid start.

My first picks of the season are up.

I have Falcons -9, Broncos +1.5, Cardinals -5. So no overlap. Good luck!

Jaime said...

Bad week 6. Overall 21% ATS and 33% on chosen picks.

Aaron Lapointe said...

I would urge you to have a look at home dogs. They are 30-17-2 this year and 434-366-21. A simple model that with single unit bets (ex. $100 every bet) would crush your predictions.