Week 10 NFL Point Spread Picks
Pick 1: San Diego +3 
Pick 2: Carolina +4
Pick 3: Baltimore -7.5
Pick 4: San Francisco -11.5
The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced this is a long-tail play. We've had 3 successful years, a break-even, and a big loss. That makes our record at 3-1-1. There will be years where it will fail. We only hope for continued success this year and the ones to come.
This week we bet two (heavy) favorites and two underdog, one of them at home. I like the big favorites. These are games where the system is trying to predict a big blowout. Although last week we were on the wrong side of the Bears blowout.
As we continue the success and the season progresses, as always we increase risk. Now we move to 18% of bankroll. For 4 games this week, it gives us a total of $265 per week.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Carolina +4
Pick 3: Baltimore -7.5
Pick 4: San Francisco -11.5
The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced this is a long-tail play. We've had 3 successful years, a break-even, and a big loss. That makes our record at 3-1-1. There will be years where it will fail. We only hope for continued success this year and the ones to come.
This week we bet two (heavy) favorites and two underdog, one of them at home. I like the big favorites. These are games where the system is trying to predict a big blowout. Although last week we were on the wrong side of the Bears blowout.
As we continue the success and the season progresses, as always we increase risk. Now we move to 18% of bankroll. For 4 games this week, it gives us a total of $265 per week.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN DIEGO @ TAMPA BAY | -3 | 1 | 4 | 60.0% |
| DENVER @ CAROLINA | 4 | -1 | -5 | 59.2% |
| OAKLAND @ BALTIMORE | -7.5 | -11.1 | -3.6 | 59.1% |
| ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO | -11.5 | -16.6 | -5.1 | 58.3% |
| NY GIANTS @ CINCINNATI | 4 | 7 | 3 | 57.6% |
| DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA | -1 | 1 | 2.0 | 56.0% |
| HOUSTON @ CHICAGO | -1.5 | -0.9 | 0.6 | 56.0% |
| BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND | -11 | -17.9 | -6.9 | 51.6% |
| TENNESSEE @ MIAMI | -6 | -9.3 | -3.3 | 51.1% |
| KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH | -12.5 | -14.1 | -1.6 | 50.1% |
| ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS | 2.5 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 50.0% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE | 3 | -2.4 | -5.4 | 49.9.3% |
| DETROIT @ MINNESOTA | 2 | 4 | 2 | 49.7% |
| NY JETS @ SEATTLE | -6.5 | -1.6 | 4.9 | 49.3% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
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