2011 Conference Playoffs Spread Picks

Pick 1: New England -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Francisco -2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Is anyone still paying attention to this? I sure now have lost all hope on the current model. For a second I thought that at least in the playoffs it was continuing to perform well, until last week.

For this year's conference playoff picks, the home teams prevail. I personally without using this would think that the Giants and Patriots would win and cover. Given their experience in these situations, I believe Flacco will choke and Manning will take over. But I have to stick with what the model says and believe a new team and QB will come out of the NFL to go to the Super Bowl.

This week we'll play 25% of whatever is left of the bankroll. Giving us $260 per game for a total of $520.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for the Conference playoffs of the 2011 NFL season.




























GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND-7-10-365.6%
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO-2.5-7.4-4.959.9%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2 comments:

George said...

I still check in every week. Your model has a proven record. Maybe, you just need a small tweak or skew to the passing game.

joe said...

i also agree with george - the best models or pickers can't win all the time. all go thru a bad run once in awhile. looking forward to next year. and thanks