Pick 2: NY Jets +1
Pick 3: Miami -7
Pick 2: Washington +1
UPDATE: revised Washington pick for an accurate point spread measure, still a pick. Introduced Jets pick that barely had made the 58% confidence cut. Good luck.
We follow a good week with three NFL picks, some of which might seem risky. Especially not knowing if Griffith III will play for the Redskins we stay with the pick hoping the backup, if he plays, can deliver as he did in last week's final drive against BAL. The computerized picks also choose Seattle and Miami to steamroll against their opponents. Other potential picks that didn't make the cut are MIN, BAL, and CHI.
We increase week 15 to 20% of bankroll and should keep this until the playoffs; this week we have $300 a game for 4 games.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEATTLE @ BUFFALO | 5 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 60.1% |
| NY JETS @ TENNESSEE | -1 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 59.0% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ MIAMI | -7 | -15.5 | -8.5 | 58.0% |
| WASHINGTON @ CLEVELAND | -1 | 3.0 | 4 | 58.0% |
| MINNESOTA @ ST LOUIS | -3 | -1.0 | 2.0 | 57.0% |
| DENVER @ BALTIMORE | 2.5 | -3 | -5.5 | 56.8% |
| GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO | 2.5 | -0.8 | -3.3 | 55.8% |
| TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | -3 | -4.4 | -1.4 | 53.3% |
| NY GIANTS @ ATLANTA | -1.5 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 52.6% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON | -8.5 | -11.0 | -2.5 | 51.9% |
| PITTSBURGH @ DALLAS | 0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 50.0% |
| KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND | -2.5 | -2.6 | -0.1 | 50.0% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ENGLAND | -4 | -4.4 | -0.4 | 49.5% |
| CAROLINA @ SAN DIEGO | -3 | -3.4 | -0.4 | 49.5% |
| CINCINNATI @ PHILADELPHIA | 3 | 2.7 | -0.3 | 48.9% |
| DETROIT @ ARIZONA | 6 | -3.3 | -9.3 | 48.6% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
4 comments:
dont know where you got washington plus 6.5, but that is no longer anywhere close to the spread of that game
grandson, thanks for pointing that out. I'll revise the picks and run them again.
Kept the Washington pick now at +1 and added the Jets who were almost there on the 58% threshold.
Sweet! Going 3-0 to mnf, go jets...
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