Week 5 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Arizona -1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Francisco -9.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Green Bay -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Seattle +3 correct NFL point spread pick

Official picks start this week 5. That means that I will start keeping track of results and tabulating them on the top right table titled 2012 ATS Record.We should have enough data from this season (with the help of weighting) to start betting on teams that are very different from last season, e.g. Denver.

This project started in 2006 when I was in grad school (Statistics at UIC) and a Finance professor gave a lecture on some technique he used to measure and predict results in figure skating. Statistically, it was interesting, the sport not so much. So I started tinkering with data and talking with him. By mid-season 2007, I started running a model and posting results on this blog. I did it more as a personal journal and force myself to make picks every week. Although 95% is automatic, there is still a judgement call on games that I decide not to bet on (because of injuries, weather, or some other significant issue not accounted in the data I have).

In the second half of 2007, I made 59% of correct picks against the spread. 2008 I broke even with 52%. 2009 I hit a record high 62%. In 2010 I was applying Kelly's formula and betting higher on games from the second half of the season and although I went only slightly above 52% ATS, money gains were at 17%. In 2011 we hit rock bottom with 43.6% ATS.

We've had our ups and downs, but I still enjoy doing this. I enjoy NFL games more after analyzing this data and putting a little you know what well you know where. The point is that I'm probably one of the few handicappers (although I consider myself more of a Statistician) that year after year puts results out there for everyone to see, at no cost, without any tricks. Take them as they are: free NFL picks against the spread, that's all. You won't see me blabber much throughout the season nor analyze each of the picks. Again, 95% is a computer making NFL picks.

I do have a feeling that visiting teams have a bit of a bias with my current model even though there is a home field advantage adjustment. The model also favors heavy favorites, especially if they are at home. Those are the only two things I've noticed and both are actually present in this week's point spread picks. OK well without further a due, here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 5 of the 2012 NFL season.

UPDATE: I forgot to put the bankroll amount. We're doing the lower bound for the beginning of the season which is 15% of bankroll  for 5 games gives us a bet of $150 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS 1.5 7.5 6.0 66.7%
BUFFALO @ SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 -16.0 -6.5 60.5%
PHILADELPHIA @ PITTSBURGH -3.5 1.0 4.5 59.0%
GREEN BAY @ INDIANAPOLIS 7 17.7 10.7 58.9%
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA -3 0.7 3.7 58.0%
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON 3 0.1 -2.9 54.1%
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -15.0 -8.0 51.4%
CLEVELAND @ NY GIANTS -9 -10.9 -1.9 51.1%
BALTIMORE @ KANSAS CITY 5 11.4 6.4 51.1%
HOUSTON @ NY JETS 7.5 1.8 -5.7 50.0%
MIAMI @ CINCINNATI -4 -1.9 2.1 50.0%
CHICAGO @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 7.5 2.0 50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ NEW ORLEANS -3.5 -6.7 -3.2 49.3%
TENNESSEE @ MINNESOTA -5.5 -1.5 4.0 48.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.