NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 17

Huge money making last week with Kansas City, Indi and Tennessee. Green Bay disappoints but gets the win. This week picks are free, just click. Playoff picks never free, win money together. Week 17 strong teams are getting no respect. Looking closely at who's playing for something and the covid protocols we find 3 opportunities to make money and set us up great for the playoffs.

INDIANAPOLIS -7.5

The half point trap, don't fall for it. The Colts are playing well and with a 9-6, a win could guarantee a playoff spot. The Raiders are coming off a win against Drew Lock and the Denver Broncos (and it was only by 4 points). The Colts are ranked 8th overall, 9th on both offense and defense, and 6th in weighted DVOA meaning they're playing at a higher level recently. 

One small caveat to this pick is that TE Darren Waller will likely play this week. It might be interesting when the news is official if bets come on the Raiders side and bring this down to 7 or maybe 6.5. As of now, everyone is betting the Colts so it could move to 8 but at that point it doesn't matter. This year, home teams favorite by more than 7 but less than 10 are 9-5 ATS.

Keep watching the covid protocols and injuries for this game and hold off to see if we can get a 7 later in the week. Raiders added 6 players on Covid list, 3 of them starting line backers. The Colts added two offensive linemen including Pro Bowler Quenton Nelson. Darius Leonard (linebacker) and Zach Pascal didn't play against the Cardinals and could be back this week. Little worries about the offensive linemen, we'll keep a close eye.

KANSAS CITY -5

Only one touchdown against the Bengals? Oh yeah maybe because Joe Borrow has now had the best performance ever after torching the Ravens with 525 yards and 4TDs. GTFOH. The Ravens were missing more than half of their team. That's why I like the DVOA that accounts for all this. Same with Dak's performance against Washington, but we'll get to that later. 

The Bengals have been able to keep games close against good teams. Except for the loss against the Browns, most losses have been within 3 points. But this team hasn't seen a decent team since they lost against the Browns 7 weeks ago. They've faced a depleted Ravens team, the Broncos, overrated 49ers, Chargers (lost by 19), Steelers, Raiders, Jets, Ravens again, and the Lions. Now they face the #4 passing offense and will need to put up a bunch of points in order to keep up. 

This is also a great situation for an under rated road team. Road teams favorite by more than 3 but less than 7 have covered 56% in the last 320 games.

Again, watching covid lists closely but we know Kelce could be back. Without him, Pringle was able to catch 6 for 75 yards and two TDs. Edwards-Helaire is out but Darrell Williams did just fine with 11 carries and 55 yards. The Chiefs are playing for the #1 spot in the AFC and won't be putting the brakes just yet.

TAMPA BAY -13

Last pick is the typical David vs Goliath match up we like. The Super Bowl champs against the Jets with a spread less than 2 TDs. At -14 it's not as juicy, but Tampa rolls here even with all their injuries. We found out they can still run the ball without Furnette. Antonio Brown is a huge target for Brady. Mike Evans hamstring is bad and yesterday was put on the Covid list so unlikely he plays although there's a chance. 

To give you some stats on this David and Goliath story. This year, road teams favorite by more than 10 are 5-2 ATS. Home teams favorite by more than 10 are 13-6 ATS so in total Goliath is 18-8 ATS this year. 

The Jets are the worst team overall according to DVOA and worst in defense. Everyone is betting the Bucs here so this line might move to 14 very quickly. 

That's it. Keeping it simple this week. Three solid teams (chalky bets) that want a better place in the playoffs and want to dominate coming into the playoffs. Let's win some and save for the playoffs and the big game in February.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16

Posted this on Thursday on my Rokfin channel.

I'm not a big fan of football on Christmas day but my job is to analyze every single game and find opportunities. As we get closer to the playoffs, I start ramping up bets per game and go a full 30% of bank roll each week of the playoffs. For this week, let's dig in to opportunities but first Thursday Night Football.

49ers vs Titans predictions

The current line is 49ers as 3 point road favorites. Looks like AJ Brown is coming from IR and playing for the Titans which will be huge and is probably underrated. Julio Jones practiced on Wednesday but he has not a been factor this year. The 49ers have Mitchell out (RB), a safety Tartt, and LB Al-Shaair. Advantage: Titans.

The 49ers are looking good but also not they have beaten the Falcons, Bengals (barely), Vikings, and Jaguars. They also beat the Rams surprisingly but lost against the Seahawks. They are inflated. The Titans on the other hand deflated for losing against the Patriots and Texans. 

Overall the Tennessee offense is ranked 22nd and has been hurt from Henry's absence. Their passing game is ranked 26th in the league while the 49ers offense is on fire and is ranked top 5 in both rush and defense. That's concerning if you're thinking of betting the Titans. 

The 49ers defense ranks 2nd in rush but 21st in pass while TB is slightly better with a rank of 5th against the pass but 12th against the rush.

My models are split and have low confidence of betting this game as the prediction on either side is close to the spread. There doesn't seem to be an opportunity here. Gun to my head, I buy low sell high. 35% of bets and 53% of the money on the Titans. I like the home team with AJ Brown back and hopefully Julio Jones back to his old self plus Jimmy G throwing a few interceptions.

KANSAS CITY -7.5

It's a COVID mess. Hill, Bell, Kelce and others are on the Covid list. They should all be game time decisions. Assuming at least that Kelce and Hill play, this is a buy.

Pittsburgh is trash and it is time they get out of being "in the hunt". Last week they beat a depleted Titans offense while only scoring 19 points. This week they go to Kansas City to play the red hot Chiefs. None of the teams seems to have any significant injuries. Here's why I like the Chiefs:

-7.5 at home is usually a trap. They want you to bet the other side because 91% of the bets are on the Chiefs. Situationally it isn't great as home teams favorite by 7.5 have only covered 41% in the last 70 games.

The teams are trending in opposite directions. Chiefs up, Steelers down. Overall weighted DVOA at 4 for Chiefs vs 25 for the Steelers

One team falls behind, I trust the Chiefs will be able to throw themselves into a comeback. Although Mahomes didn't look for a big part of last week's game and still were able to cover thanks to an awesome performance from Kelce.

INDIANAPOLIS +1

A team that still hasn't gotten the respect they deserve. It is not just Jonathan Taylor it's that tought #8 ranked defense that seems to be playing better every game. Assuming Deandre Hopkins will still be out for this game, the Cardinals offense gets a huge blow from this. For the Colts, seems like they are down 3 players due to Covid.

These are two teams that also seem to be heading in different direction and we always take the one with positive momentum. The Colts are 8th overall but 6th if weighted more for recent games according to Football Outsiders. Both teams are 9-5 ATS this year. Situationally, home teams favorites by less than 3 but more than 1 are 44% ATS in last ~300 games. Bet the road team!

Also seems like everyone agrees with my machine learning models as 68% of the bets and 95% of the money is on the Colts so bet it quick before it gets to Colts -3. Oh no, a Christmas game. I won't watch live but will see the money going into the bank.

GIANTS VS EAGLES

The models loved the Giants, but they don't know the QB situation they are on. Since Daniel Jones got injured, the Giants have lost 3 and have scored an average of 10 points per game. Now comes a 5th round pick in Fromm to see what he can do against the Eagles who they beat a few weeks back. This is too unpredictable. I'm gonna stay away. 

WASHINGTON VS COWBOYS

Every time I like a big underdog like Washington +10, I ask myself if this is getting too cute. The Cowboys did beat them two weeks ago by 7 on the road so 10 at home seems ok right? Although the Cowboys rank #2 overall in DVOA, Dak has not been impressive at all. With one if not the best receiving squad he only ranks 8th in the league. 

Heinekie and others are expected to come back from covid protocols and this divisional rivalry should stay close if not a potential upset. Dallas' weakness is the run so I expect Washington to have a full run game, bring the clock down, bet under?, and keep the game close. 

Situationally it isn't great. Home teams favorite by 10 or more but less than 13 covered 57.4% of the time in the last 148 games. Maybe I am getting cute here. Ok, maybe a sprinkle or a unit but not big. Washington covers, hopefully.

TAMPA BAY VS CAROLINA

Another opportunity to fade Cam Newton and against the Bucs, let's go! Wait not so quick. Mike Evans, Fournette injured. Godwin out for season. The spread is still 10? Brady will find ways to win as he said. 

Models estimated this at Bucs to win by 13 so not much but a potential blowout. I'm not too worried about Fournette as I know others will be able to fill his role. I'm more worried about Brady throwing pick 6s because receivers can't get open and that's where Evans and Godwin would step in. Good news is that Antonio Brown will be coming back. 

CHARGERS -10

Chargers in a David and Goliath battle here and needing a win to secure a playoff spot while the Texans might be looking into a better draft spot. 

PACKERS -7.5

I can't believe the Packers didn't cover last week. They should have learned their lesson at almost losing that game. They come back and beat the crap out of the Browns at home.

Final take: probably a stay away or a half unit to see the Bucs defense come to life against Cam and get them through the hump.

MNF: NEW ORLEANS -3

Before they shut down the Bucs offense to zero, did you know the Saints defense is ranked #4 overall and first against the run? Sean Payton always carries a great defense and this year is no different. Imagine what they will do against Tua and the Dolphins #24 offense? You would be buying the Dolphins high since they have won 6 in a row, but the only decent team they beat was the Ravens. The rest was Jets (twice), Giants, Panthers, and Texans. Now they face a tough D, let's see how that goes...Easy money Saints -3.

Statistical model results below:

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14

Nice week last week going 4 for 5 and adding the Patriots over Twitter on Monday night. Let's keep it rolling this week. The strong beat the weak many times over last week. The one time I went cute with Jacksonville against the Rams was the only loss for the week.

KC was attractive at 9.5 but not as much at 10. Same with the NYG at +10.5 now down to 10 is good but not great. Fading Cam Newton as a 3 point favorite seems like a good idea. 

Sunday Night Football with Aaron Rodgers on Prime Time seems like a no brainer under two TDs favorite. Although the Bears defense is healthier, they are starting Justin Fields who will struggle against an underrated Packers D. 

Monday Night, why is Arizona not at -3? Stafford hasn't been good as of late and the Cardinals are healthy and a win away to clinch the playoffs. The attitude for them in this game is seeing if they can hang with teams like the Rams. Their defense is as good as the Rams so it is disrespectful that they are not a 3 point favorite. 

Other picks and raw results of the machine learning models are posted on my channel on Rokfin. 

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 12 Thanksgiving Day

This week all picks will be posted here as way to appreciate everyone who has ever supported me through this site in the past 15 years. It's been a rollercoaster ride for years, but in the end it's been a good one. Let's gobble up some wins this Thursday and over the weekend:

CHICAGO vs DETROIT 

A whole slew of injuries on both sides are reporting including the two starting QBs. That might be a good thing for Chicago as Andy Dalton came in last week and performed better in two quarters than Fields has in two games. The new Bears WR star Mooney seems like he's a go, but Allen Robinson in questionable. Aside from the injuries:

• Both offenses are horrible. The Bears rank 26th in offensive DVOA (30th in passing DVOA) and the Lions ranking 30th (32nd in passing)
• On the other side of the ball, the Bears rank 16th in the league in DVOA. That's not great, but it's still far better than a Lions unit that ranks 28th
• The DVOA variance for Detroit is one of the lowest, meaning they have been consistently bad
• The models are split for this one but the better ones are saying Bears by a TD with a percent confidence of 55%
• Currently 53% of the bets and 64% of the money is going to Detroit but that's when it was at +3.5. That key number is now down to 3.
• Lots of talk of Nagy getting fired. Not sure which way this goes, but players' jobs on the line as well meaning they will play. 
• Road teams with small spreads are covering a lot more this year (and last year). When in doubt, go with the road favorite under a field goal

Pick: Chicago -3

LAS VEGAS vs DALLAS

Everyone is focused on Dallas going 1-9 ATS in the last 10 Thanksgiving days. These seem like independent events with a whole new talented team this year. The Cowboys fell against a raging and upcoming Kansas City Chiefs last week, that should have been expected that they were going to be out-coached. Now they are catching just a TD against the free falling Raiders. Amari Cooper is out and CeeDee Lamb is questionable so their offense won't be looking as dominant if these two again won't play this week.

• The Dallas defense is ranked #3 against the pass which is ideal against a Raiders offense that can't run the ball and ranks #30th on the ground attack
• The Raiders' weakness on defense is on the air where they rank #23rd. This could be trouble against an offense that is ranked #7th in the league on the air attack.
• The spread has gone down to 7 points in some places as more money is getting placed on the Raiders but the totals is still that 58% of the money is on the Cowboys (with 66% of the bets)
• With a healthy offense, my models estimate a Cowboys win by 17 points well over the 7 or 7.5 point spread. 
• Although the offense is banged up, the Dallas D is the one who's going to show up and ensure the Cowboys clear a win and cover on Turkey day

Pick: Dallas -7.5

BUFFALO vs NEW ORLEANS

Is the value in the road favorites this Thursday? Is being chalky the right move? This game you should probably stay away the same way you shouldn't have that extra piece of pie. But who are we kidding, you're gonna bet it. Since you are here is our recommendation.

Buffalo has looked like a Super Bowl contender and like a team that doesn't even have what it takes to make the playoffs. New Orleans is still figuring it out their offense, they've lost 3 in a row, and now face a team that is trying to win a division while the Saints chances of beating the Bucs are getting slimmer.

• Injuries plague the Saints. Especially on the passing front and now they face the #1 passing defense in the league!
• The Bills have lost 2 of the last 3 and we predicted it last week. Now they are playing for their division against a weak team. This recency bias keeps this spread under a TD. They just need to control Kamara which shouldn't be as much as he'll be the only threat.
• All my models like the Bills to win by over 10 points...blowout potential
• The Saints D has allowed over 29 points per game in the last 4 and now face one of the most scoring offenses in the league

Pick: Bills -6 (and over 45)

All chalk on Thursday I know. It is hard to see Buffalo losing this one and falling even lower on the standings. Same for Dallas' Defense against a Raiders team that's falling apart. Chicago vs Detroit is a race to see who is the worst. Tough one, so the Bears D shows up and makes it an interesting game.

NFL Point Sprea Picks - Week 9

Although the chosen games last week went 1-3, the models went 67% across all games. That's good, the math is working. The improvement needed is in finding better ways to identify the winning games. I got a few ideas besides situational confidence that I'm gonna test this week. Let's dig in!

Indianapolis -10

Thursday night football the Colts hosts the Jets who are coming off a huge win last week. The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 and have arguably the best running back in the league. The #10 overall team against the #28th is a weak vs strong case we always like to be on the strong side. Additionally,

• Models estimate between 16 and 24 giving the Colts room for a cover.
• Recency bias, huge, for the Jets
• Slight QB edge for Carson Wentz who shines against weak teams
• Big spreads have been covering this year going 9-2 ATS
• 40% of the bets and 42% of the money on the Colts

Conclusion: Bet the strong avoid the weak

Buffalo -15

Don't over think it. Jacksonville is trash. Buffalo is top. Another weak vs strong case. 

Arizona pick

Kyler Murray is questionable but likely to play Sunday. A game time decision, but this time the betting markets are assuming that he will play. Articles like this one, also point at him playing. The longer week should also help. Remember that last week, Dak Prescott was a "game-time decision" but 3 days before the game the spread had moved to Vikings -3. Assuming he plays, here's the break down:

• All models are estimating this game at or close to Cardinals by 10! The situational confidence is not as strong, but this week they aren't facing anything close to Aaron Rodgers
• Their loss last week and 49ers win against the Bears is making this game a pick vs 3 or even 7 points for the Cards
• Bets and money ~60% going to the Cardinals
• SF is surprisingly ranked 9th in DVOA against the Cardinals #2, but the 49ers defense which ranks 17th overall and 22th against the pass will be exposed setting up a potential blowout
• Away teams at a pick are 42-30 ATS since 2010
• A huge QB advantage for the Cards (if Murray plays)

Conclusion: This line will move a bit once Murray is officially announced the starter, but even a one or two point move won't be enough. All signs point that the Cardinals bounce back from their first loss to win again.

Get the rest of the picks and the machine learning model results on Rokfin.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 8

 3-2 ATS (60%) a winning last week! Rookie mistakes were made by betting back up QBs. We learn and grow. 3 solid picks this week and takes on a few other games. 

First, we stay away from back up QB games. It's just a guess if they are going to suck or if they're going to be the next Payton Manning. It's not analytical. Second, that Bears pick goes against weak vs strong. When you have the GOAT going against the worst QB in the NFL at the moment, you can't expect to cover. We learn, get better, and win big this week. Let's go!

TNF: ARIZONA -6.5

This Cardinals team is something else. With AJ Green and Hopkins in the WR positions it opens up so much. Now they are facing a Packers team without their best WR and a defense that is ranked 24th in DVOA. The Cardinals defense is surprisingly ranked #2; 2nd against the pass and 7th against the rush. Aaron Rodgers on PRIME time is a worry, but he doesn't have all the tools he needs and it will be out of his control what his defense let's go. In summary:

• The models on average predict a two TD margin. Situational confidence for home team is at 60%. There are a handful of models that don't predict a cover but those haven't performed well and have been weighted lighter in the ensemble
• Devante Adams is out is underrated. Less to cover, the other WRs will have a hard time getting open
• When home teams are favorite by 6.5, the home team has covered 59.8% ATS in the last 107 games. Check for yourself.
• The Sharps agree. 50% of the bets and 75% of the money on the Cardinals

For the other winning picks and parlay check out my full article on Rokfin.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

Got a bit cocky last week and didn't deliver winning results going 2-3 ATS for a loss. This week we bounce back, leave the emotions behind, and roll with the punches no matter how ugly they may seem. Here we go!

NEW ENGLAND -7

No brainer right? Belichick owns the Jets. The Patriots haven't won at home yet. If they lose, hell will break loose at Foxborough. This is an important game for Mac, Bill, and the rest of the Patriots. I can't say the same thing about the Jets. 

• The models estimate this game at two or three TD difference. Confidence also high. 
• The Patriots blew them out not too long ago. That's not enough time for Zach Wilson to figure it out. 
• Home teams favorite by 7 are 56% ATS in the last 123 games
• 91% of the bets AND money are on the Patriots. Does this move to 7.5 soon?

Don't over think it. Belichick won't give in. Mac Jones continues to get better. The Patriots D currently ranked 11th hold this Jets offense, maybe get a score, and cover.

CHICAGO +12.5

Another ugly bet. Potential blowout potential against the worst QB in the NFL. There are only two reasons why this bet makes sense:

• The Bears defense is ranked 6th against the pass. Stop the passing game and the Bucs game slows down significantly
• The sharps are on the Bears with me. 43% and 65% of the money on the Bears

After that you can start talking about Tom Brady and the Super Bowl champs and you would probably want to stay away. Leave those emotions aside and put the money on the Bears defense to keep this game close.

There are two other locked picks you can get on my Rokfin channel. It's gonna be a great Sunday!

 

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

For all 5 official picks visit my Rokfin page. $9.99/mo or $99/year. You get 2 of the 5 free here. Keep reading.

3-1 ATS last week and 68.8% across all games for the models. For this week, you will read that not only the statistical models are capturing opportunity, but bias, DVOA, and overall situational trends are all aligning very well. We roll this week with a few road teams getting under valued just because they are on the road and as always some recency bias from last week's games. This might be too good to be true, but some of these spreads seem way off. Let's dig in.

HOUSTON +9.5

Not my cup of tea of betting Houston, but I do think their defense is slightly better than it is given credit. Plus IND is not a dominant team so this is not a David vs Goliath scenario. It is currently ranked 15th according to DVOA. Houston's problem is the offense but maybe with veteran Danny Amendola back this week they will get enough boost to cover this week's biggest spread across all games. I've also never been a big fan of Carson Wentz and this looks like too many points for him, here's why:

• All my statistical models have IND winning, but by a field goal or at most a TD. The situational confidence is big meaning that when the models predict this same situation, they are correct over 70% of them time across 45 games in this case.
• Strength of schedule is also on our side. Although not a big difference, IND has had an average schedule while HOU has 6% above average for the rankings of their opponents
• Houston's rank rushing the ball is last. Ingram and Lindsey haven't done their job, is this a good bounce back? IND is 22nd overall on defense with a slighter edge on rushing which means if anything is weak is the pass. Good sign since Houston can't run.
• In the last 127 games, home teams favorite between 8.5 and 10 points are 45% ATS. If you narrow it to 9.5 home favorite, then they are 32% in 50 games
• QB Rating: not much difference. Slight edge to Wentz
• Both teams last week lost close games and blew big leads, yet one of them is almost a two digit favorite and that team was on MNF (short rest)
• Lots of money coming in for Houston, 64% of bets yet over 90% of the money. Sharps (like me) like the underdog here.

DALLAS -4

When is Dallas going to get the respect they deserve? They are the only undefeated team against the spread and are only getting 4 points against the Patriots. Is it because they covered against the Bucs? My conspiracy theory is that the game was fixed; keep it interesting Brady but we know you're better so in the end you'll get the win. Dallas on the other hand is on a tear and signals a potential blowout. A spread of 6.5, 7, or 7.5 is likely the better one. You also have that:

• All the simulation models have this game as a blowout of 21 points to 8 points at the least. The road team favorite with a blowout prediction is a very high confidence situation
• Dallas strength of schedule has been much tougher. They rank 9th to the Patriots 28th
• The #2 ranked team vs #20 just that should be at least a TD. DAL defense which wasn't supposed to be good is ranked 6th and 3rd against the rush which will put the ball more into the hands of Mac Jones, great!
• As always, the sharps bet against the Cowboys but not the public. That's a bad sign, but they have been wrong all year about the Cowboys talented team now that the defense is not an issue (for now). 82% of bets and 55% of the $
• Who's got the QB advantage? Dak >>> Mac #3 vs #25 ranked QBs in the league. That's a huge difference.

Thursday Night Football

Mixed results for a 7 point spread for the models. Some at 10 and some under 7. Trends, QB, and rankings would favor the Bucs to cover, but it could also be a close game like their last year's game vs the Bears. Stay away for me. Sharps are on the Eagles crossing that majority barrier to get 52% of the money but only 29% of the bets.

Sunday Night Football

Russel Wilson is out. Who knows how Seattle will do without him. Seems like this is not their year and will fall apart soon. Blindly going with the Steelers who are so on and off as well, but at home on prime time should show up, at least their defense will knowing it's a backup QB.

Monday Night Football

For Monday Night Football's official pick and 2 more for a total of 5 official picks this week, visit this link:

https://rokfin.com/article/6086

Feeling lucky? Stay with me and win.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

Four weeks in, gives statistical model something good to work with. Add the stat rankings, trends, strength of schedule, injury report, and we can find opportunities in week 5. Only one team is undefeated against the spread and all teams have covered at least once on the ATS Standings. This week we are going to capitalize on strong teams with hard schedules so far against weak teams, yes some chalk. We will talk about Thursday Night and Sunday Night football but being cautious because they could be traps. Let's dig in.

SAN FRANCISCO +5.5

Although San Francisco may be a bit banged up with Kittle and Garoppolo questionable for Sunday, this Cardinals team has been riding too high so far. This divisional game can go either way and getting 5.5 points maybe even 6 seems like something to jump on. 

• All models in the ensemble have the 49ers winning or at least covering. The situational confidence is highest of all
• In the last 123 games, home favorites less than 7 but more than 5 have only covered 33% of the time
• The schedule has been slightly tougher for SF. They rank 6 vs 12 for ARI
• Surprisingly, these teams are ranked by DVOA similar on offense, but ARI is ranked 6th on defense. The opportunity is in SF running the ball as ARI is ranked 16th against the run
• If Trey Lance plays QB for SF I like this game even more as he can run the ball. We do need Kittle though.

TENNESSEE -4.5

Keep fading Jacksonville especially against Derek Henry. This spread should be more like 7 but giving that Tennessee is visiting and recency bias from Jacksonville looking semi decent last week and the Jets beating the Titans this is the number we get. Although we don't know if AJ Brown or Julio Jones will play this week, they are more likely to suit up than they were last week. 

• The smallest prediction was at 6, highest at 19. This is a potential blowout with great chances given they are road favorite by less than a TD
• In the last 161 games, road favorites less than a TD but more than a field goal are 55% ATS
• DVOA doesn't give much edge to TEN but the variance is key as JAC has been consistently (low variance) bad while TEN has one of the highest variance
• Trey Lawrence (and a bunch of rookie QBs) haven't shown they can hang in this league yet. I like Tannehill here over Lawrence
• Tennessee is coming from a loss against the Jets, recency bias. The Jets also have a much better defense than the Jaguars
• Everyone, public and sharks, are betting Tennessee. Get it soon. This spread could go up quick.

There are two more opportunities plus my take on TNF and MNF in this article. From week 5 forward they are exclusive to my channel on Rokfin. If you subscribe through my channel, you get all the premium content on Rokfin. Football, Free Thinking Media, Spirituality, and even Aliens. Go get some and download the mobile app.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 4

Wow, what a week! Carolina's #1 defense continues to dominate but will now face a top 10 offense in Dallas. They are 3-0 ATS at the top with Dallas and Denver. The Rams (2-1 ATS) aren't the best defense but they are the #1 ranked offense so far. Cleveland, Arizona, and Denver all ranked on the top 5 overall! Who would've known? It's still early and there's a lot of variability. We had Green Bay and the Saints to win as underdogs and cover last week but missed on Seattle. 

This week the models detected 4 games with bias and opportunities. The main themes are to monopolize on are dominant vs weak, team bias, and road favorite underrated. Let's dig in!

TNF

Cincinnati should blow out Jacksonville right? I just haven't seen the Cincinnati offense score much and with a 7.5 spread, I'm not hoping for Joe Burrow to put up yardage here. Low scoring game with a high spread would imply bet the underdog, but neither am I going with the Jax. Recency bias with last week's win against the Steelers. When I doubt both sides, I prefer to stay away and put these units elsewhere.

TAMPA BAY -7

Tom Brady back in Foxborough on Prime Time should be a hell of a game. It'll be quite the match up but I think the player will have more influence on the game than the coach. Tampa Bay being the much better team, by them being on the road, they are not getting the points they deserve...should be 10. My only worry is that everyone is betting the Bucs here so grab the 7 while you can because this will go to 7.5.

• NFL Pickles' models have this game anywhere between two and three TD margin
• Something is off with this line and everyone knows it. 92% of the tickets and money on the Bucs
• Tampa Bay ranked #8 DVOA at 24% while NE is 21st but -7.6% below the average
• Tampa's defense hasn't been the same yet and this could be the game where they turn it around
• QB Power Brady >>> Jones
• No significant injuries for the Bucs and Godwin, Gronk all expected to play. James White is out for the remainder of the season for the Patriots

This is a detection of a blowout with a single digit spread. Almost a home game for Brady and Gronk.

Atlanta +1.5

Give me the home dog here. Washington's defense prowess is lingering from last year yet this year they have been bad. They rank bottom 5 against the pass allowing 921 yards 6 TDs and 1 INT. Atlanta's defense isn't that great either and is close to Washington's in DVOA. In terms of offenses, they also look similar with a slight yet so slight edge on the Football team. So if these teams have performed so similar, why is the home team the underdog?

• Most of NFL Pickles' models have Atlanta by 3 which is exactly my point above
• Situationally a road favorite at 1.5 is 56% ATS in the last 50 games. Last week this was Seattle.
• Russell Gage is questionable which Atlanta could miss. Not likely a big factor.
• Matt Ryan >> Heinicke, I like to bet the veteran here
• Fade the house, Washington currently getting 60% of the bets and 80% of the money

An ugly take with the Falcons, but the Washington team is also garbage.

There's two more opportunities that I talk about on the full article on Rokfin. 

NFL Picks and Betting Strategies - Week 3

Overrated home teams, Goliath beats David, and other opportunities on week 3 of the NFL.

Wild & exciting week 2! One of my favorite strategies that we've talked in the past came true in two games and if you follow me on Twitter, you could've capitalized on MNF. Strong teams blow out weak teams. The spread is hardly ever above 14 and many strong teams blowout their opposition by more than two touchdowns.

On MNF we saw the undermined by recency bias Green Bay Packers cover a double digit spread against a weak prey in the Detroit Lions & Jared Goff. Tampa Bay also took care of their double digit spread against Atlanta triggered by their defense and Tom Brady wanting to get TDs under his belt. The Bills and Miami a similar story but one could argue Miami wasn't as weak as the latter two but the Bills were also under rated from their first week loss. 

Unfortunately this week there's only one double digit spread and it's Denver which wouldn't be categorized as "strong" just yet. The second highest spread, Baltimore against Detroit, could be an interesting one. At 8.5 road favorites, the Ravens are coming off a big win and should cruise in Detroit and players will be eager to gather stats into their game logs. 

The machines were trained and the numbers crunched. Below are the model outputs. We talk about 4 games that look interesting against the spread. There were like 4 QBs that went down last week so we have to be careful with back QBs and just sit out of those games to see how they perform. 

Here's the breakdown on games where there seems to be something off with the spread:

NEW ORLEANS +3
The Saints are going to Foxborough and these two teams are considered equal by putting a spread of 3 for the home team. But are they? The Saints are coming off a really poor offensive performance against the Panthers. Winston threw 0 TD and 2 INT and they rushed for a total of 48 yards, 19 from Winston himself. Maybe we are underestimating the Panthers D? The Patriots beat the Jets, c'mon man! In terms of ranking of defenses and offenses they might be the same, but the variability is worth noting. New Orleans has been the most night and day team so far while New England has been consistently ranked upper 20s on both sides of the ball on both games. It won't be another dark night for the Saints and they not only cover but win outright. 

GREEN BAY +3.5
Another prime time game for Aaron Rodgers and he's an underdog? Against Garoppolo? This is too good to be true. Sure they have also been night and day, but Rodgers won't be consistently bad. There's no other QB that can throw like he did on Monday. The defense might be the issue for the Packers especially on the ground where SF can take advantage. The 49ers are currently ranked 13th in defense but that's just two games and in one of them they allowed 33 points to the Lions. This means that GB will score big which will force SF to throw the ball and with Garoppolo that means game over, Packers roll. 

Get my other two takes and the results of the statistical models free on Rokfin. 

NFL Point Spread Model Outputs 2021 - Week 2

All statistical models need data. Without counting the pre-season, this year has given us 1 week of data. Although one can use data from last season, which we do, there's just not enough to make conclusive decisions for this week. 

If you have followed my blog for the past 14 years, you know I stay away in any significant way from week 1 to 5. To have fun watching games, throwing a .1 unit is fine, but even that, you know it's lost, could get lucky though. 

Last week we got a glimpse of a few surprises. 

The RAMS are good or the Bears are horrible
Could definitely be a little bit of both. The Bears defense, especially the secondary, is no good. Fade them against good QBs, yeah Stafford included. The Rams with Stafford might be a big deal, but the cat is not out of the hat yet. 

The Saints Still the Most Balanced Team
Winston looked good. He will throw the picks, but he will keep throwing. Stopping the Packers offense is no easy feat. They have good defense, a good offense, and even a top 10 special teams. They will, at some point, be over-rated but probably not yet for week 2. 

Arizona and Philadelphia Surprise
Both teams played well. Both ranked top 5 in offense and defense for last week. But this smells like low sample size bias and they should regress to the mean.

TEN, ATL, DET, JAX, GB Sucked
Mostly expected except for the Packers and Tennessee. I expected Julio Jones to be a bigger presence in Tennessee and probably they will target him more this week. The other 3 teams seems like fade every week type of teams.

That's it for this week's take. Sorry for the late Thursday night post (not before TNF), but did wanted to share what the model outputs are using last week and last year's second half of the season.

As always, give my channel a follow on Rokfin.com/nflpickles and subscribe to get my premium picks starting on week 5; oh and you also get access to a bunch of political and wrestling content. 

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Diff	% Conf.
LAS VEGAS @ PITTSBURGH	-5.5	-10.8	-5.3	68.2
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA	3.5	15.0	11.5	60.8
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE	3.5	11.5	8.0	60.8
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY	-12.5	-11.6	0.9	60.7
LA RAMS @ INDIANAPOLIS	3.5	7.2	3.7	60.4
CINCINNATI @ CHICAGO	-2.5	-7.3	-4.8	56.5
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS	5.5	1.7	-3.8	54.9
TENNESSEE @ SEATTLE	-5.5	4.0	9.5	53.6
MINNESOTA @ ARIZONA	-3.5	-5.2	-1.7	52.4
DENVER @ JACKSONVILLE	6.0	-5.5	-11.5	50.8
DALLAS @ LA CHARGERS	-3.5	0.7	4.2	50.7
BUFFALO @ MIAMI	3.0	4.5	1.5	48.1
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY	-11.0	-8.1	2.9	46.2
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON	-3.5	-1.6	1.9	45.6
SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA	3.0	2.8	-0.2	44.9

6 Teams Covered Over 60% of the Time, Who Will It Be in 2021?

There were also 6 other teams that only covered less than 40%. Accurately finding these teams from the beginning is a jackpot strategy for the season.

Pick your pony! Or ponies... Last year there were 6 teams that didn't cover the spread over 60% of the time and and 6 teams that covered the spread 60% of the time. If you bet against and for these teams respectively all season long, you come out winning big. Let's take a look:

2020 Over-rated teams (covered the spread <40%)

CLEVELAND 6-10 37.5%

NY JETS 6-10 37.5%

MINNESOTA 6-10 37.5%

ARIZONA 6-10 37.5%

DALLAS 5-11 31.2%

HOUSTON 5-11 31.2%

CLEVELAND

Does Cleveland's "stacked" team continue to be over-rated in 2021? It might not. Many "experts" gave their first pick of the draft an A by grabbing Newsom who will protect against the pass more effectively than they have. On their second pick, they selected Anthony Schwartz who could've been the fastest player in the whole draft giving Baker a shot at long passes. Not a big fan on the volatility of the Browns, but they might get out of the <40% ATS in 2021.

NY JETS

Zach Wilson already being compared to Mahomes? He's got worked to do, but it was the right move for the Jets to pick the best QB available. On their second pick, they select an offensive lineman in Alijah Vera-Tucker to protect the young QB. Their defense wasn't horrible (a bit below avg) so I think the Jets will be out of these and won't finish as one of the teams under 40. 

MINNESOTA

I'm not a fan of Kirk Cousins so that makes me biased. They have plenty of weapons in the offense with Jefferson and Thielen and finished last year with one of the top 10 offenses in the league. Despite that, they were able to finish just below 40% even with an impressive run in the end. Kirk will be Kirk and this team stays under 40.

ARIZONA

Kyler Murray is too short to be a franchise QB, there I said it. Even though I'm 5'7" and always looking for short athletes to succeed, I'm not getting the Altuve vibe from Murray. The offense finished 20th overall in the league and they drafted a LB on their first pick. For their second pick, the selected a 5'7" receiver in Moore. This midget team is going nowhere and it might be a good strategy to just bet against every week and come out +60% on it.

Keep reading on Rokfin and see my picks for which ponies I'm gonna ride this year.

 

"Defense Wins Championships" - Part 2 - Myth or Fact for Super Bowl

Last year, I wrote a piece on whether defense wins championships in the Super Bowl. It was an interesting analysis, given that last year's Super Bowl was clearly a big offense in KC vs a strong defense in the 49ers. We busted that myth, bet on the Chiefs, and put another Super Bowl win under our belt. This year, things are a little bit different. Let's get into it. 

We have arguably the best offense in the 2020 Chiefs against the best defense in the Bucs. But the buc doesn't stop there. It's not like the Bucs have a weak offense or the Cheifs have a weak defense. The plot above has the last 31 Super Bowl winners by DVOA and take a look. You can quickly see where KC falls on the chart. Pretty close to where they were last year but better on offense. 

Read the rest at https://rokfin.com/article/3292/Defense-Wins-Championships--Part-2--Myth-or-Fact-for-Super-Bowl

Conference Championship NFL Point Spread Picks

You're not gonna like this week's picks. You could be better off betting against them. I'm sticking to the models and either going down with the ship or ending the season with a solid 3-0 ATS. They are contrarian, you could find 10 reasons why not to do it, but I'm here to tell you why I'm sticking to it.

Buccaneers +3.5

Betting against Aaron Rodgers at home? You're crazy. Betting against Aaron Rodgers (6-2 ATS last 8 games) during the playoffs is absurd. The public surely thinks so. As of Tuesday, they have 57% of the bets and 60% of the money. This means that there's no clear sharp action on the Packers but the general public are cheeseheads. He beat the Rams defense, good for him. But played a mediocre offense without its top receiver and a QB with a broken thumb. Let's see how the Bucs challenge will pan out.

• Machine learning models (ALL of them) have the Bucs winning outright with high confidence. Through 20 years of data, the models have seen this situation 74 times and have been correct 64.9% of the time.
• Bucs pass offense is top 3 in the league. #3 in pts/gm and #2 in pass yards/gm. The Green Bay pass defense is decently ranked #8. If they fall asleep in the back or get tricked with a play action, Brady will catch on and throw long.
• Bucs will run the ball a lot. It worked for them last week and it did in week 6 against the Packers (158 yards and 2 TDs). Runs the clock out and keeps the game close.
• The Bucs weakness in defense is the run, but they were able to hold their ground against Kamara last week and against the Packers in week 6 (94 rushing yards and 1 TD).
• Will Rodgers again have a hard time against them? Possibly. The answer is in the blitz.
• Tampa Bay had the toughest schedule in the league according to teamrankings. Green Bay's schedule is ranked #18. Point Bucs.
• The Green Bay offense is in full speed. Against the #1 defense, they were still able to score 32 points, rushing for 188 and passing for 296. They have a lot more weapons now that the Bucs need to figure out. Point Packers.
• Who's the real goat? I'm gonna go with the guy with 6 rings vs. 1. Aaron Rodgers hasn't won a Super Bowl in 10 years and was humiliated by SF last year who I never thought had that good of an offense. Now, although a much better team, they face an even tougher defense and top 5 offense. Brady > Rodgers.
• LaFleur is a great coach and in two years has built one of the best offenses in the league. Arians takes more risks, sometimes not good ones. But no risk no reward. Experience > 2 year coach.
• Trends: Since 2006 (51 games) road dogs between 0 and 4 points are 64.6% against the spread. 7-2-1 (77.8%) in the last 10 games.
• Intangible: Tampa is one game away from playing the Super Bowl at home.

As the locals in Tampa Bay would say, Tampaaaaaaaa!

For all other picks, visit rokfin.com/nflpickles

Wild Card NFL Point Spread Picks

A historical 61% ATS during playoffs in 13 years of experience. The real ride starts this week. Up your bankroll % because we're going to win big. Wildcard weekend is here and we've found 3 solid opportunities. Let's roll!

Subscribe today. It's the best $9.99 you will invest in sports. The Super Bowl is in Feb 7th so if you subscribe today, you only have to stay for one month. That's all playoff picks + Super Bowl for $9.99. Why so cheap? Because Rokfin is the best place to monetize content. You win and I win. 

The first one is a freebie.

Buffalo -6.5 Saturday 12pm CST

Buffalo is unstoppable right now and there are no signs of stopping. We have picked them 2 weeks in a row now out of a 8-0 ATS streak their in. Now they face noodle arm Philip Rivers and the Colts as a 6 and a half point home favorite. Although most of my models hover around a 10 point win for Buffalo, here are some reasons why I think this could get ugly for the Colts quick:

• The Colts have had the easiest schedule of all the teams. Of their 11 wins, only 3 were against playoff teams (Bears, Titans, Packers).
• Josh Allen's story of being rejected by universities (Fresno State) over and over until Wyoming gave him a chance is amazing. The guy is a fighter and will continue to prove his haters wrong. Captain Class type of guy.
• My favorite angle here is that the Colts weakness in the defense is in the pass while we all know the strength of the Bills offense is in that same spot. Colts rank 19th in pass D while the Bills are 3rd in the league.
• The Bills D is playing much better as of late especially against the run game. 
• Home teams favorite between 6 and 7 are 57% ATS in the last 216 games. That's a big sample! About the same percentage in 2020.

Buffalo rolls past the Colts, Philip Rivers retires.

Get all picks at rokfin.com/nflpickles