NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 17
Huge money making last week with Kansas City, Indi and Tennessee. Green Bay disappoints but gets the win. This week picks are free, just click. Playoff picks never free, win money together. Week 17 strong teams are getting no respect. Looking closely at who's playing for something and the covid protocols we find 3 opportunities to make money and set us up great for the playoffs.
The half point trap, don't fall for it. The Colts are playing well and with a 9-6, a win could guarantee a playoff spot. The Raiders are coming off a win against Drew Lock and the Denver Broncos (and it was only by 4 points). The Colts are ranked 8th overall, 9th on both offense and defense, and 6th in weighted DVOA meaning they're playing at a higher level recently.
One small caveat to this pick is that TE Darren Waller will likely play this week. It might be interesting when the news is official if bets come on the Raiders side and bring this down to 7 or maybe 6.5. As of now, everyone is betting the Colts so it could move to 8 but at that point it doesn't matter. This year, home teams favorite by more than 7 but less than 10 are 9-5 ATS.
Keep watching the covid protocols and injuries for this game and hold off to see if we can get a 7 later in the week. Raiders added 6 players on Covid list, 3 of them starting line backers. The Colts added two offensive linemen including Pro Bowler Quenton Nelson. Darius Leonard (linebacker) and Zach Pascal didn't play against the Cardinals and could be back this week. Little worries about the offensive linemen, we'll keep a close eye.
KANSAS CITY -5
Only one touchdown against the Bengals? Oh yeah maybe because Joe Borrow has now had the best performance ever after torching the Ravens with 525 yards and 4TDs. GTFOH. The Ravens were missing more than half of their team. That's why I like the DVOA that accounts for all this. Same with Dak's performance against Washington, but we'll get to that later.
The Bengals have been able to keep games close against good teams. Except for the loss against the Browns, most losses have been within 3 points. But this team hasn't seen a decent team since they lost against the Browns 7 weeks ago. They've faced a depleted Ravens team, the Broncos, overrated 49ers, Chargers (lost by 19), Steelers, Raiders, Jets, Ravens again, and the Lions. Now they face the #4 passing offense and will need to put up a bunch of points in order to keep up.
This is also a great situation for an under rated road team. Road teams favorite by more than 3 but less than 7 have covered 56% in the last 320 games.
Again, watching covid lists closely but we know Kelce could be back. Without him, Pringle was able to catch 6 for 75 yards and two TDs. Edwards-Helaire is out but Darrell Williams did just fine with 11 carries and 55 yards. The Chiefs are playing for the #1 spot in the AFC and won't be putting the brakes just yet.
TAMPA BAY -13
Last pick is the typical David vs Goliath match up we like. The Super Bowl champs against the Jets with a spread less than 2 TDs. At -14 it's not as juicy, but Tampa rolls here even with all their injuries. We found out they can still run the ball without Furnette. Antonio Brown is a huge target for Brady. Mike Evans hamstring is bad and yesterday was put on the Covid list so unlikely he plays although there's a chance.
To give you some stats on this David and Goliath story. This year, road teams favorite by more than 10 are 5-2 ATS. Home teams favorite by more than 10 are 13-6 ATS so in total Goliath is 18-8 ATS this year.
The Jets are the worst team overall according to DVOA and worst in defense. Everyone is betting the Bucs here so this line might move to 14 very quickly.
That's it. Keeping it simple this week. Three solid teams (chalky bets) that want a better place in the playoffs and want to dominate coming into the playoffs. Let's win some and save for the playoffs and the big game in February.