NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6
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3-1 ATS last week and 68.8% across all games for the models. For this week, you will read that not only the statistical models are capturing opportunity, but bias, DVOA, and overall situational trends are all aligning very well. We roll this week with a few road teams getting under valued just because they are on the road and as always some recency bias from last week's games. This might be too good to be true, but some of these spreads seem way off. Let's dig in.
Not my cup of tea of betting Houston, but I do think their defense is slightly better than it is given credit. Plus IND is not a dominant team so this is not a David vs Goliath scenario. It is currently ranked 15th according to DVOA. Houston's problem is the offense but maybe with veteran Danny Amendola back this week they will get enough boost to cover this week's biggest spread across all games. I've also never been a big fan of Carson Wentz and this looks like too many points for him, here's why:
- All my statistical models have IND winning, but by a field goal or at most a TD. The situational confidence is big meaning that when the models predict this same situation, they are correct over 70% of them time across 45 games in this case.
- Strength of schedule is also on our side. Although not a big difference, IND has had an average schedule while HOU has 6% above average for the rankings of their opponents
- Houston's rank rushing the ball is last. Ingram and Lindsey haven't done their job, is this a good bounce back? IND is 22nd overall on defense with a slighter edge on rushing which means if anything is weak is the pass. Good sign since Houston can't run.
- In the last 127 games, home teams favorite between 8.5 and 10 points are 45% ATS. If you narrow it to 9.5 home favorite, then they are 32% in 50 games
- QB Rating: not much difference. Slight edge to Wentz
- Both teams last week lost close games and blew big leads, yet one of them is almost a two digit favorite and that team was on MNF (short rest)
- Lots of money coming in for Houston, 64% of bets yet over 90% of the money. Sharps (like me) like the underdog here.
When is Dallas going to get the respect they deserve? They are the only undefeated team against the spread and are only getting 4 points against the Patriots. Is it because they covered against the Bucs? My conspiracy theory is that the game was fixed; keep it interesting Brady but we know you're better so in the end you'll get the win. Dallas on the other hand is on a tear and signals a potential blowout. A spread of 6.5, 7, or 7.5 is likely the better one. You also have that:
- All the simulation models have this game as a blowout of 21 points to 8 points at the least. The road team favorite with a blowout prediction is a very high confidence situation
- Dallas strength of schedule has been much tougher. They rank 9th to the Patriots 28th
- The #2 ranked team vs #20 just that should be at least a TD. DAL defense which wasn't supposed to be good is ranked 6th and 3rd against the rush which will put the ball more into the hands of Mac Jones, great!
- As always, the sharps bet against the Cowboys but not the public. That's a bad sign, but they have been wrong all year about the Cowboys talented team now that the defense is not an issue (for now). 82% of bets and 55% of the $
- Who's got the QB advantage? Dak >>> Mac #3 vs #25 ranked QBs in the league. That's a huge difference.
Thursday Night Football
Mixed results for a 7 point spread for the models. Some at 10 and some under 7. Trends, QB, and rankings would favor the Bucs to cover, but it could also be a close game like their last year's game vs the Bears. Stay away for me. Sharps are on the Eagles crossing that majority barrier to get 52% of the money but only 29% of the bets.
Sunday Night Football
Russel Wilson is out. Who knows how Seattle will do without him. Seems like this is not their year and will fall apart soon. Blindly going with the Steelers who are so on and off as well, but at home on prime time should show up, at least their defense will knowing it's a backup QB.
Monday Night Football
For Monday Night Football's official pick and 2 more for a total of 5 official picks this week, visit this link:
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