NFL Point Sprea Picks - Week 9

Although the chosen games last week went 1-3, the models went 67% across all games. That's good, the math is working. The improvement needed is in finding better ways to identify the winning games. I got a few ideas besides situational confidence that I'm gonna test this week. Let's dig in!

Indianapolis -10

Thursday night football the Colts hosts the Jets who are coming off a huge win last week. The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 and have arguably the best running back in the league. The #10 overall team against the #28th is a weak vs strong case we always like to be on the strong side. Additionally,

  • Models estimate between 16 and 24 giving the Colts room for a cover.
  • Recency bias, huge, for the Jets
  • Slight QB edge for Carson Wentz who shines against weak teams
  • Big spreads have been covering this year going 9-2 ATS
  • 40% of the bets and 42% of the money on the Colts

Conclusion: Bet the strong avoid the weak

Buffalo -15

Don't over think it. Jacksonville is trash. Buffalo is top. Another weak vs strong case. 

Arizona pick

Kyler Murray is questionable but likely to play Sunday. A game time decision, but this time the betting markets are assuming that he will play. Articles like this one, also point at him playing. The longer week should also help. Remember that last week, Dak Prescott was a "game-time decision" but 3 days before the game the spread had moved to Vikings -3. Assuming he plays, here's the break down:

  • All models are estimating this game at or close to Cardinals by 10! The situational confidence is not as strong, but this week they aren't facing anything close to Aaron Rodgers
  • Their loss last week and 49ers win against the Bears is making this game a pick vs 3 or even 7 points for the Cards
  • Bets and money ~60% going to the Cardinals
  • SF is surprisingly ranked 9th in DVOA against the Cardinals #2, but the 49ers defense which ranks 17th overall and 22th against the pass will be exposed setting up a potential blowout
  • Away teams at a pick are 42-30 ATS since 2010
  • A huge QB advantage for the Cards (if Murray plays)

Conclusion: This line will move a bit once Murray is officially announced the starter, but even a one or two point move won't be enough. All signs point that the Cardinals bounce back from their first loss to win again.

Get the rest of the picks and the machine learning model results on Rokfin.


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