NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 8
3-2 ATS (60%) a winning last week! Rookie mistakes were made by betting back up QBs. We learn and grow. 3 solid picks this week and takes on a few other games.
First, we stay away from back up QB games. It's just a guess if they are going to suck or if they're going to be the next Payton Manning. It's not analytical. Second, that Bears pick goes against weak vs strong. When you have the GOAT going against the worst QB in the NFL at the moment, you can't expect to cover. We learn, get better, and win big this week. Let's go!
TNF: ARIZONA -6.5
This Cardinals team is something else. With AJ Green and Hopkins in the WR positions it opens up so much. Now they are facing a Packers team without their best WR and a defense that is ranked 24th in DVOA. The Cardinals defense is surprisingly ranked #2; 2nd against the pass and 7th against the rush. Aaron Rodgers on PRIME time is a worry, but he doesn't have all the tools he needs and it will be out of his control what his defense let's go. In summary:
- The models on average predict a two TD margin. Situational confidence for home team is at 60%. There are a handful of models that don't predict a cover but those haven't performed well and have been weighted lighter in the ensemble
- Devante Adams is out is underrated. Less to cover, the other WRs will have a hard time getting open
- When home teams are favorite by 6.5, the home team has covered 59.8% ATS in the last 107 games. Check for yourself.
- The Sharps agree. 50% of the bets and 75% of the money on the Cardinals