NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

Four weeks in, gives statistical model something good to work with. Add the stat rankings, trends, strength of schedule, injury report, and we can find opportunities in week 5. Only one team is undefeated against the spread and all teams have covered at least once on the ATS Standings. This week we are going to capitalize on strong teams with hard schedules so far against weak teams, yes some chalk. We will talk about Thursday Night and Sunday Night football but being cautious because they could be traps. Let's dig in.

Although San Francisco may be a bit banged up with Kittle and Garoppolo questionable for Sunday, this Cardinals team has been riding too high so far. This divisional game can go either way and getting 5.5 points maybe even 6 seems like something to jump on. 

  • All models in the ensemble have the 49ers winning or at least covering. The situational confidence is highest of all
  • In the last 123 games, home favorites less than 7 but more than 5 have only covered 33% of the time
  • The schedule has been slightly tougher for SF. They rank 6 vs 12 for ARI
  • Surprisingly, these teams are ranked by DVOA similar on offense, but ARI is ranked 6th on defense. The opportunity is in SF running the ball as ARI is ranked 16th against the run
  • If Trey Lance plays QB for SF I like this game even more as he can run the ball. We do need Kittle though.
Keep fading Jacksonville especially against Derek Henry. This spread should be more like 7 but giving that Tennessee is visiting and recency bias from Jacksonville looking semi decent last week and the Jets beating the Titans this is the number we get. Although we don't know if AJ Brown or Julio Jones will play this week, they are more likely to suit up than they were last week. 
  • The smallest prediction was at 6, highest at 19. This is a potential blowout with great chances given they are road favorite by less than a TD
  • In the last 161 games, road favorites less than a TD but more than a field goal are 55% ATS
  • DVOA doesn't give much edge to TEN but the variance is key as JAC has been consistently (low variance) bad while TEN has one of the highest variance
  • Trey Lawrence (and a bunch of rookie QBs) haven't shown they can hang in this league yet. I like Tannehill here over Lawrence
  • Tennessee is coming from a loss against the Jets, recency bias. The Jets also have a much better defense than the Jaguars
  • Everyone, public and sharks, are betting Tennessee. Get it soon. This spread could go up quick.
There are two more opportunities plus my take on TNF and MNF in this article. From week 5 forward they are exclusive to my channel on Rokfin. If you subscribe through my channel, you get all the premium content on Rokfin. Football, Free Thinking Media, Spirituality, and even Aliens. Go get some and download the mobile app.