NFL Point Spread Model Outputs 2021 - Week 2
All statistical models need data. Without counting the pre-season, this year has given us 1 week of data. Although one can use data from last season, which we do, there's just not enough to make conclusive decisions for this week.
If you have followed my blog for the past 14 years, you know I stay away in any significant way from week 1 to 5. To have fun watching games, throwing a .1 unit is fine, but even that, you know it's lost, could get lucky though.
Last week we got a glimpse of a few surprises.
The RAMS are good or the Bears are horrible
Could definitely be a little bit of both. The Bears defense, especially the secondary, is no good. Fade them against good QBs, yeah Stafford included. The Rams with Stafford might be a big deal, but the cat is not out of the hat yet.
The Saints Still the Most Balanced Team
Winston looked good. He will throw the picks, but he will keep throwing. Stopping the Packers offense is no easy feat. They have good defense, a good offense, and even a top 10 special teams. They will, at some point, be over-rated but probably not yet for week 2.
Arizona and Philadelphia Surprise
Both teams played well. Both ranked top 5 in offense and defense for last week. But this smells like low sample size bias and they should regress to the mean.
TEN, ATL, DET, JAX, GB Sucked
Mostly expected except for the Packers and Tennessee. I expected Julio Jones to be a bigger presence in Tennessee and probably they will target him more this week. The other 3 teams seems like fade every week type of teams.
That's it for this week's take. Sorry for the late Thursday night post (not before TNF), but did wanted to share what the model outputs are using last week and last year's second half of the season.
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|Game||Vegas Line||Estimate||Diff||% Conf.|
|LAS VEGAS @ PITTSBURGH||-5.5||-10.8||-5.3||68.2|
|NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA||3.5||15.0||11.5||60.8|
|KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE||3.5||11.5||8.0||60.8|
|ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY||-12.5||-11.6||0.9||60.7|
|LA RAMS @ INDIANAPOLIS||3.5||7.2||3.7||60.4|
|CINCINNATI @ CHICAGO||-2.5||-7.3||-4.8||56.5|
|NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS||5.5||1.7||-3.8||54.9|
|TENNESSEE @ SEATTLE||-5.5||4.0||9.5||53.6|
|MINNESOTA @ ARIZONA||-3.5||-5.2||-1.7||52.4|
|DENVER @ JACKSONVILLE||6.0||-5.5||-11.5||50.8|
|DALLAS @ LA CHARGERS||-3.5||0.7||4.2||50.7|
|BUFFALO @ MIAMI||3.0||4.5||1.5||48.1|
|DETROIT @ GREEN BAY||-11.0||-8.1||2.9||46.2|
|NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON||-3.5||-1.6||1.9||45.6|
|SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA||3.0||2.8||-0.2||44.9|