2017 Week 7 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Kansas City -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: NY Giants +5.5
Pick 3: Pittsburgh -5

Finally got my machine learning NFL spread models to work on Python and export the info into HTML! Exciting for a geek like me. Still working on a few formating details (like the number of decimals) but wanted to get it out there so you can see the results from all the games. Of course, I do recommend on betting the top games based on my percent confidence in the model calculation. Some of my models have been improved to take advantage of the tools now available that weren't there before. This gives me optimism to finish this season way high.

The 2017 ATS Standings are now posted and available from the top navigation bar of the page.

Ok so this week we again stay at 15% of bankroll split into 3 games gives us a bet of $520 per NFL football game. Remember that historically my models have performed much better by the end of the season and especially the playoffs which is why some years we finish below 50% throughout the year but positive on bankroll. Good luck! and yes, stay away from the Packers game...and please share your thoughts on which is your sure pick of the week, mine is KC (5-0 ATS this year, killing it!).

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND 3.00 16.50 13.50 63.2
SEATTLE @ NY GIANTS 5.50 4.37 -1.13 59.1
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH -5.00 -6.17 -1.17 58.9
TAMPA BAY @ BUFFALO -3.00 -4.56 -1.56 56.9
ARIZONA @ LA RAMS(LONDON) -3.50 -9.44 -5.94 54.9
DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO 6.00 9.30 3.30 54.3
BALTIMORE @ MINNESOTA -5.50 -9.04 -3.54 54.2
TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND 5.50 7.26 1.76 53.7
CAROLINA @ CHICAGO 3.50 5.00 1.50 53.7
NY JETS @ MIAMI -3.00 -5.85 -2.85 53.5
ATLANTA @ NEW ENGLAND -3.50 3.50 7.00 50.9
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA -5.00 -1.56 3.44 49.0
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS 3.00 12.99 9.99 47.1
DENVER @ LA CHARGERS -1.50 -0.11 1.39 42.7
NEW ORLEANS @ GREEN BAY 5.50 11.85 6.35 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2017 Week 6 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Houston -7.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Baltimore -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Jacksonville -1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Francisco +11 correct NFL point spread pick

Not a bad start! Hope the streak continues this week. Lots of good stuff happening in the back end of NFL pickles machine learning picks. Unfortunately, the front end is still in the works.

We continue soft betting only 15% of the bank. This week we bet 4 games and distribute $400 per game. Lets continue the NFL season strong and let me know what picks you have, which ones you agree with and which ones you strongly disagree. Also, if there is another NFL game that you're confident in, please post it on the comment section.

2017 Week 5 NFL Spread Picks

Pick 1: Indianapolis -1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Oakland -2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Green Bay +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

The computerized machine learning picks are running wild! While I continue to work on the important transition that will set us up for the next 10 years (using open source tools and better analytical algorithms) I can only put the top picks since I don't have the HTML output yet. I'm really hoping next week if I put the hours at night that I need to. Regardless, I'm excited to start the official picks this week with 3 picks I feel good about as you can see above. The other pick I didn't put is the Bears with their #2 pick on the draft starting Monday Night. Depending how things go during the week, I might add it.

As we have done in the past, we will start with a hypothetical $10,000 in the bank. We start the season soft betting only 15% of the bank and as the season progresses we increase up to 30%. This week we bet $1500 total distributed $500 per game. Lets start the season strong and let me know what picks you have, which ones you agree with and which ones you strongly disagree. Also, if there is another NFL game that you're confident in, please post it on the comment section.

2017 Week 4 Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Baltimore +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Green Bay -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Atlanta -8.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Philadelphia +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Indianapolis +13 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Hi there NFL Point Spread Stats geeks. I have the machine learning models running on Python with the latest data! That's the good news. The bad news is that I haven't finished the HTML outputs I used to do to display all the stats in the section below. So this week, you will get the results of my stat models with the top 5 picks (above) and hopefully by next week I will have the table outputs that we are all used to. Looking forward to a winning NFL spread picks season. Let the games begin!

Under Construction Until Week 5 (or before)

Fans, sorry for this, lots things going on. The delay is me changing all the statistical coding into a new language (Python). Should take 2 or 3 weeks at the most. Picks are pretty crappy in the first few weeks anyways, so I'm doing you a favor. Best of luck!

2016 NFL Super Bowl Spread Pick

Pick 1: Patriots -3 correct NFL point spread pick

If there is one impeccable record during our 8 years doing this is the Super Bowl ATS where against the spread we've gone 6-1. This year should be no different.

To get reassurance, I used my employers technology to validate or disprove what our models were saying. We looked at online conversations around this year’s playoff games. For each game we analyzed all the tweets in the week leading up to the game. The winner of the game was simply predicted by taking the team who the majority of people expressed was going to win. What we found was that, surprisingly, women were far more accurate in their predictions. For example, during the 2016 playoffs, the only two games where the majority of the women were wrong were the Oakland-Houston and Green Bay-Dallas game.

As for the models it was clear that the Patriots are predicted to cover the spread. Plus it's Brady-Belichick killer combination. That's all I got for this year. It's been disastrous and some heavy thinking will need to happen during the off season in order to get back on track. Good luck on the Super Bowl and see you all in Vegas.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ATLANTA - NEW ENGLAND -3 -10.2 -7.2 60.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Conference Playoffs

Pick 1: Patriots -6 correct NFL point spread pick

Betting Patriots all in. Should bet Falcons, but I cannot see myself betting against Rodgers right now.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND -6 -11.7 -5.7 61.0%
GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA -4 -6.6 -2.6 53.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional Playoffs

Pick 1: Atlanta -5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Kansas City -1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Dallas -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick

This week has been the worst most saddest weeks of my life. Mom please send me some luck from heaven, if you can't that's all right, I've hit bottom anyways here at NFLpickles. Bet all home teams this week. Good luck.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ ATLANTA -5 -12.4 -7.4 60.1%
PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY -1.5 -10.5 -9.0 58.0%
GREEN BAY @ DALLAS -4 -12.0 -8.0 55.0%
HOUSTON @ NEW ENGLAND -16 -14.7 1.3 49.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Wildcard Playoffs

Pick 1: Detroit +8 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Green Bay -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Historically we've done well in the playoffs and specifically the wild card round. Given this year's troublesome record, I'm definitely not as confident as I have been in the past. It doesn't help either that two starting QBs (Oakland and Miami) aren't playing this weekend. The models point to Green Bay, Detroit and Houston (but staying away from this game). We are betting big on Detroit and Green Bay but staying away from the Steelers' massacre of the Dolphins and Houston's bigger upset.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DETROIT @ SEATTLE -8 -5.3 2.7 59.8%
NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY -4.5 -9.5 -5.0 59.0%
OAKLAND @ HOUSTON -3 -6.0 -3.0 NA
MIAMI @ PITTSBURGH -10 -3.0 7.0 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.