2016 NFL Super Bowl Spread Pick

Pick 1: Patriots -3 correct NFL point spread pick

If there is one impeccable record during our 8 years doing this is the Super Bowl ATS where against the spread we've gone 6-1. This year should be no different.

To get reassurance, I used my employers technology to validate or disprove what our models were saying. We looked at online conversations around this year’s playoff games. For each game we analyzed all the tweets in the week leading up to the game. The winner of the game was simply predicted by taking the team who the majority of people expressed was going to win. What we found was that, surprisingly, women were far more accurate in their predictions. For example, during the 2016 playoffs, the only two games where the majority of the women were wrong were the Oakland-Houston and Green Bay-Dallas game.

As for the models it was clear that the Patriots are predicted to cover the spread. Plus it's Brady-Belichick killer combination. That's all I got for this year. It's been disastrous and some heavy thinking will need to happen during the off season in order to get back on track. Good luck on the Super Bowl and see you all in Vegas.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ATLANTA - NEW ENGLAND -3 -10.2 -7.2 60.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Conference Playoffs

Pick 1: Patriots -6 correct NFL point spread pick

Betting Patriots all in. Should bet Falcons, but I cannot see myself betting against Rodgers right now.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND -6 -11.7 -5.7 61.0%
GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA -4 -6.6 -2.6 53.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional Playoffs

Pick 1: Atlanta -5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Kansas City -1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Dallas -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick

This week has been the worst most saddest weeks of my life. Mom please send me some luck from heaven, if you can't that's all right, I've hit bottom anyways here at NFLpickles. Bet all home teams this week. Good luck.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ ATLANTA -5 -12.4 -7.4 60.1%
PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY -1.5 -10.5 -9.0 58.0%
GREEN BAY @ DALLAS -4 -12.0 -8.0 55.0%
HOUSTON @ NEW ENGLAND -16 -14.7 1.3 49.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Wildcard Playoffs

Pick 1: Detroit +8 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Green Bay -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Historically we've done well in the playoffs and specifically the wild card round. Given this year's troublesome record, I'm definitely not as confident as I have been in the past. It doesn't help either that two starting QBs (Oakland and Miami) aren't playing this weekend. The models point to Green Bay, Detroit and Houston (but staying away from this game). We are betting big on Detroit and Green Bay but staying away from the Steelers' massacre of the Dolphins and Houston's bigger upset.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DETROIT @ SEATTLE -8 -5.3 2.7 59.8%
NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY -4.5 -9.5 -5.0 59.0%
OAKLAND @ HOUSTON -3 -6.0 -3.0 NA
MIAMI @ PITTSBURGH -10 -3.0 7.0 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.