NFL Spread Picks - Week 11, 2017

Pick 1: New England -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Seattle -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Pittsburgh -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Jacksonville -7.5 correct NFL point spread pick

What a f* great week! Wow, it's been a crazy ride this year and now that we continue to bet the increasing bankroll is when we'll start seeing huge growth. Half a point a way from a perfect 5-0, but I'll take 4-1 ATS in the NFL any day. I've been doing NFL spread picks for about 10 years now and I've never been this excited. I think there are two things contributing to the success so far: 1) there aren't many middle ground teams; they are really good and horrible and we've been banking on those heavy favorites and 2) after transferring my machine learning NFL spread picks to Python and adding a few new methodologies, I have a wider array of model choices to compare and weigh each one depending on their historical success.

This NFL week 11 we will continue to bank on heavy favorites. New England in Mexico City, yeah elevation is not going to benefit Oakland. I like the Seattle pick at home and although no Sherman there's no Devante either so I like this matchup. Pittsburgh is also a heavy favorite and although they didn't play great last week, it's good to see the spread a bit less than last week so I'll think they'll bounce back to dominate. Continue fading the Browns and go on Jacksonville to sweep them off. Two other picks that caught my eye although they didn't make my confidence threshold are LA Rams and Philadelphia (especially with Ezequiel out). Good luck everyone.

It is time to bump up the percent of bankroll to 22%. This means that this week we will bet about $525 per game (based on our current bankroll). It's going to be very exciting to see where we end this week and as always, post a comment about your picks so we can discuss.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND - OAKLAND (Mexico City) 7.0 15.20 8.20 61.00
ATLANTA @ SEATTLE -3.0 -6.00 -3.00 60.28
TENNESSEE @ PITTSBURGH -7.0 -12.30 -5.31 59.67
JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND 7.5 19.80 12.29 58.43
LA RAMS @ MINNESOTA -2.0 12.80 14.79 56.26
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS 3.5 5.50 2.00 55.41
BUFFALO @ LA CHARGERS -4.0 -1.10 2.90 54.56
TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI -2.5 -5.00 -2.50 51.67
CINCINNATI @ DENVER -2.5 5.10 7.63 51.28
ARIZONA @ HOUSTON 1.5 -1.30 -2.79 50.0
DETROIT @ CHICAGO 3.0 -3.20 -6.17 50.00
WASHINGTON @ NEW ORLEANS -9.0 -5.70 3.30 50.00
KANSAS CITY @ NY GIANTS 10.5 13.80 3.32 49.86
BALTIMORE @ GREEN BAY 2.0 -3.00 -5.02 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

1 comments:

Jaime Brugueras said...

3-0 going into MNF and the spread for that game is now at -1.5