2017 Week 8 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: New England -7.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Washington +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Buffalo -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Carolina +2 correct NFL point spread pick

We are going with 3 home spread picks this week, which makes me wonder if the models are a bit biased towards home teams...investigating. Anyways, I'm liking the Patriots crushing the Chargers and Washington as a home dog. Oakland surprised me last week against KC, I really thought we had that game. Unfortunately, any time a team has a chance to finish the game they play conservatively, run the ball 3 times and punt rather than putting the other team out of their misery. I'm not so fond of Carolina but Tampa Bay is potentially the worst team on the league. Other picks I liked were Seattle against a Houston defense without JJ Watt, fading the Steelers and taking Detroit as a home dog on SNF (I might take this depending on the results of the day games).

This NFL week 8 we stay at 15% of bankroll split into 4 games gives us a bet of $400 per NFL football game (ok that's a bit more than 15% bc I rounded). Watch for that 5th pick on Sunday Night Football if the picks go 2-2 or worse. As always, let us know in the comments questions your lock of the week. This week our lock is the Patriots at home, without buying the half point.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
LA CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND -7.5 -20.4 -12.89 61.1
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON 2.5 -3.3 -5.83 60.5
OAKLAND @ BUFFALO -3.0 -12.7 -9.67 58.0
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY -2.5 -1.0 1.50 57.6
PITTSBURGH @ DETROIT 3.0 9.3 6.33 56.0
HOUSTON @ SEATTLE -5.5 -8.0 -3.50 55.9
INDIANAPOLIS @ CINCINNATI -10.0 -8.0 2.00 54.4
ATLANTA @ NY JETS 4.5 8.6 4.15 52.2
MIAMI @ BALTIMORE -3.5 -6.7 -3.19 50.0
SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA -13.0 -13.6 -0.60 50.0
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY -7.5 -8.0 -1.50 50.0
CHICAGO @ NEW ORLEANS -9.0 -10.0 -1.00 50.0
MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND 9.5 12.0 2.50 48.4

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

1 comments:

paul lechiara said...

Thursday Night ATS Pick
Miami +3