NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 13
Pick 1: New Orleans -4.5 
Pick 2: Houston +7
Pick 3: Green Bay +1
Pick 4: LA Rams -7
Unfortunately our 4-week winning streak is over but only to a 2-2 ATS week. Will we bounce back or continue regressing to the mean as my colleagues joke with me? Lets stay smart, true to the numbers, making no emotional pick and safeguard our money. Lucky week 13 has been generally good for my algorithm, except for last year. Of the 9 years of historical data, 3 of them have been perfect on week 13 and 7 of 9 have won. This week our sure lock are the Saints at home playing a mediocre offense. This game is going to be a blowout. Tennessee doesn't deserve to be a 7-point favorite, nor does Tampa on the road. Finally, the mighty Rams are due to give a blowout. Do you agree with these picks?
Slightly increasing the bankroll at 23%, we continue to use Kelly's formula to maximize winnings and minimize the chance of bankrupt. With four solid NFL picks this week we get about $730 per game. Let the good times roll!
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Houston +7
Pick 3: Green Bay +1
Pick 4: LA Rams -7
Unfortunately our 4-week winning streak is over but only to a 2-2 ATS week. Will we bounce back or continue regressing to the mean as my colleagues joke with me? Lets stay smart, true to the numbers, making no emotional pick and safeguard our money. Lucky week 13 has been generally good for my algorithm, except for last year. Of the 9 years of historical data, 3 of them have been perfect on week 13 and 7 of 9 have won. This week our sure lock are the Saints at home playing a mediocre offense. This game is going to be a blowout. Tennessee doesn't deserve to be a 7-point favorite, nor does Tampa on the road. Finally, the mighty Rams are due to give a blowout. Do you agree with these picks?
Slightly increasing the bankroll at 23%, we continue to use Kelly's formula to maximize winnings and minimize the chance of bankrupt. With four solid NFL picks this week we get about $730 per game. Let the good times roll!
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS | -4.5 | -8.30 | -3.83 | 68.29 |
| HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE | -7.0 | 3.70 | 10.72 | 65.89 |
| TAMPA BAY @ GREEN BAY | 1.0 | -11.30 | -12.33 | 59.54 |
| LA RAMS @ ARIZONA | 7.0 | 18.60 | 11.60 | 58.63 |
| MINNESOTA @ ATLANTA | -3.0 | 0.30 | 3.34 | 57.67 |
| DENVER @ MIAMI | 1.00 | -5.60 | -6.57 | 53.86 |
| DETROIT @ BALTIMORE | -3.0 | -5.70 | -2.67 | 52.58 |
| CLEVELAND @ LA CHARGERS | -14.0 | -17.00 | -3.00 | 51.56 |
| PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE | 6.0 | 5.80 | -0.21 | 50.00 |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE | -9.5 | -10.00 | -0.50 | 50.00 |
| PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 6.0 | 5.00 | -1.01 | 50.00 |
| KANSAS CITY @ NY JETS | 3.5 | -7.40 | -10.92 | 48.11 |
| WASHINGTON @ DALLAS | -1.0 | -2.70 | -1.67 | 48.00 |
| NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO | 9.0 | 11.80 | 2.75 | 47.84 |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO | -3.0 | -4.30 | -1.30 | NA |
| NY GIANTS @ OAKLAND | -7.0 | -3.00 | 4.0 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
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