2017 NFL Week 9 Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: New Orleans -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Miami +3 PUSH
Pick 3: Kansas City PK incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Indianapolis +13 correct NFL point spread pick

Coming out of a great week last week, I believe we have some great picks this week. Tampa Bay is terrible and the Saints should roll past them by a lot. Not so sure about Atlanta (*update: changed a few parameters, re-ran and now it's not a pick), but hopefully some of last year's glory comes out in this game against a struggling Panthers team. I hate betting for Cutler, but this is a nice fade against a bad Oakland team and always like getting a homedog in there. I like KC winning this game and with Ezequiel out it's almost a sure bet. Too many points in the Indi/Houston game.

This NFL week 9 we will start to put the foot on the pedal and increase to 18% of bankroll. Since we have 4 NFL football games preferred by machine learning each game will get a $440 bet.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -7.0 -15.10 -8.10 60.6
OAKLAND @ MIAMI 3.0 -2.7 -5.7 58.4
KANSAS CITY @ DALLAS 1.00 7.60 6.60 58.3
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON -13.0 -10.50 2.50 58.0
LA RAMS @ NY GIANTS 3.5 -11.00 -14.50 57.1
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO 2.0 3.60 1.6 54.3
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA -1.0 1.50 2.47 54.0
CINCINNATI @ JACKSONVILLE -4.5 3.70 8.17 53.7
BUFFALO @ NY JETS 3.0 5.70 2.67 53.4
WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE -7.5 -2.70 4.83 51.2
DENVER @ PHILADELPHIA -8.0 -9.70 -1.70 50.0
BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE -4.5 -1.70 2.83 NA
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY 2.5 -9.70 -12.17 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.


bazooooka said...

Be cool if you put in another column that showed what your bankroll would be if you were kelly or half kelly betting. Anytime you have high confidence and model divergence from Vegas would seem like a time to go beyond 15% to 20% of bankroll. If model is picking this up you can increase ROI.


jersiggy said...

Jamie you are confusing me and here is why. This is copied and pasted from your rules

Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.

AND YET this week you have the following prediction

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -7.0 -5.10 1.86 60.6
You pick the Saints and your PRED-VEGAS is positive 1.86
Please explain

Jaime Brugueras said...

@jersiggy idk what happened, some formatting converting HTML or something. It's fixed now. You were right, it was wrong. Still a New Orleans pick.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Got in the Houston pick before the QB got injured but too late to get the two and a half points for KC after Ezekiel