NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: Minnesota -10.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: LA Chargers -1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Indianapolis +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Arizona +4 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Pick 5: Oakland +3 PUSH

Since we started betting the season on week 5, we've had 7 winning weeks, one losing week and two push. Last week I'll admit we got lucky with two overtime TD covers. WCurrently at 67.6% ATS, we are on a roll and there shouldn't be any sign of stopping. We'll keep riding the great teams and fading the horrible ones.

This week we got the Vikings coming off a loss playing a team that seems to have given up. I like the Vikings D at home and the models are predicting a blowout. Next up the LA Chargers going strong to win the division and we'll prove their a better team. I don't really know what happened to KC, but they are terrible and aren't covering lately except last week but it was against an even worse team in the Raiders. Finally, going home dog with the Colts and mostly betting that the Broncos are going to regress to the mean and not do anything remotely close to what they did last week. I was on the fence with going with Arizona again, but I'll go with them after seeing the TNF result. That's it for this week, go get some cash with these games.

Bankroll will go to 27% and as the winnings keep coming in, the amount bet gets bigger and bigger. With these solid NFL picks again this week we get about $1500 per game. Stay thirsty my friends!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CINCINNATI @ MINNESOTA -10.5 -22.00 -11.50 65.83
LA CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY 1.0 9.70 8.7 60.00
DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS 2.5 -6.80 -9.35 58.52
ARIZONA @ WASHINGTON -4.5 -3.00 1.50 57.56
DALLAS @ OAKLAND 3.0 -1.00 -4.00 56.83
NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH 2.5 7.90 5.39 55.56
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE -11.5 -16.00 -4.50 53.00
NY JETS @ NEW ORLEANS -15.5 -19.00 -3.50 53.00
LA RAMS @ SEATTLE -2.0 7.00 9.00 51.28
CHICAGO @ DETROIT -6.0 -3.00 3.00 50.14
TENNESSEE @ SAN FRANCISCO -2.0 -3.0 -1.00 50.00
MIAMI @ BUFFALO -3.0 3.00 6.00 50.00
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY 6.0 8.00 2.00 49.35
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND 7.0 12.00 5.00 48.00
GREEN BAY @ CAROLINA -3.0 -11.00 -7.96 NA
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS 8.0 28.40 20.41 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

1 comments:

Jaime Brugueras said...

People - I added the next two games in confidence after going 0-2 on the Thursday and Saturday game. Lets do this!