NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16
Pick 1: Jacksonville -4.5 
Pick 2: Chicago -6.5
Pick 3: LA Rams -6.5
Pick 4: New Orleans -5.5
Bad week last week, probably some could have been avoided. This is still the year of the favorite and I should've tried to bank more on heavy favorites against crappy or teams that have given up. This week we have a bit of that by fading Cleveland and backing Jacksonville (lock of the week) and the Rams. The Saints pick is as well like the other ones pure mathematical but I've been told that my model needs to incorporate the same division factor (usually closer games).
Bankroll will continue to be at 27%. With 4 solid NFL spread picks this week we get about $1100 per game. Let's get rolling!
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Chicago -6.5
Pick 3: LA Rams -6.5
Pick 4: New Orleans -5.5
Bad week last week, probably some could have been avoided. This is still the year of the favorite and I should've tried to bank more on heavy favorites against crappy or teams that have given up. This week we have a bit of that by fading Cleveland and backing Jacksonville (lock of the week) and the Rams. The Saints pick is as well like the other ones pure mathematical but I've been told that my model needs to incorporate the same division factor (usually closer games).
Bankroll will continue to be at 27%. With 4 solid NFL spread picks this week we get about $1100 per game. Let's get rolling!
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JACKSONVILLE @ SAN FRAN | 4.5 | 9.20 | 4.74 | 64.87 |
| CLEVELAND @ CHICAGO | -6.5 | -15.00 | -8.53 | 60.86 |
| LA RAMS @ TENNESSEE | 6.5 | 18.30 | 11.83 | 59.63 |
| ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS | -5.5 | -8.40 | -2.87 | 58.00 |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE | -13.5 | -18.00 | -4.53 | 59.00 |
| LA CHARGERS @ NY JETS | 7.0 | 5.00 | -2.00 | 55.00 |
| SEATTLE @ DALLAS | -5.0 | 3.20 | 8.19 | 52.75 |
| MIAMI @ KANSAS CITY | -10.0 | 2.90 | 12.91 | 51.00 |
| TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA | -9.5 | -11.30 | -2.83 | 50.00 |
| NY GIANTS @ ARIZONA | -4.0 | -3.20 | 0.20 | 50.00 |
| DETROIT @ CINCINNATI | 5.0 | 7.60 | 2.56 | 50.00 |
| BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND | -12.0 | -18.30 | -6.31 | 48.83 |
| PITTSBURGH @ HOUSTON | 10.0 | 5.10 | -4.89 | 47.45 |
| DENVER @ WASHINGTON | -3.5 | -2.70 | 0.83 | NA |
| MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY | 3.0 | 9.00 | 5.00 | NA |
| OAKLAND @ PHILADELPHIA | -9.5 | -27.90 | -18.41 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
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