Pick 2: NY Giants -9 (-100) + $50
Pick 3: Minnesota -3.5 (-105) + $47.62
Pick 4: Chicago -10 (-105) + $47.62
Pick 5: Cincinnati -5.5 (-105) -$50
3 visiting teams, 2 home teams, 1 underdog. Putting $45 on each game. Why $45? Kelly's formula suggests using 18% of the bank roll =~ $225, divided by 5 = $45.
In God we trust. All others must bring data. Large amounts of it! I use 15 years of NFL Vegas lines data to come up with data-driven point spread predictions, picks and tallies of the success of this algorithmic betting strategy. So far so good this year, lets hope we keep up the good work here at NFLpickles. Enough said, here is a brief description of the picks followed by our traditional table containing point spread picks, predictions, and THE confidence measure.
Baltimore +1.5 @ New England - Baltimore seems to be getting better every week, while the Patriots are very shaky. With a weak performance against both the Bills and the Jets, the Ravens are yet to be their biggest challenge. Baltimore comfortably wins with big offense coming from 1-2-3 punch Flacco, Rice, and Mcgahee.
NY Giants -9 @ Kansas City - A single digit line on this game? Not under my watch. If Detroit, Tampa Bay, or KC are playing a playoff contender and the line is not in double digits, I'm all over it like a donkey on a waffle.
Green Bay @ Minnesota -3.5 - Favre better than anyone, will read GB defensive plays and capitalize on his knowledge of the Packers' strategy. Big win in SF gives them momentum. Although both teams have had weak schedules so far, I see the Vikings winning by at least 7.
Detroit @ Chicago -10 - Another Bears pick? You might ask. Yes, but I don't feel comfortable. Lets face it, Detroit will lose this game. There is very little chance that they will come out from a 19-game losing streak and win 2 in a row. But will they lose by more than 10? Prediction says 11.5 so its close, but over the 10-point line. I'm not so worried about Forte's injury since he hasn't done much this year and Adrian Peterson could end up being a better RB.
Cincinnati @ Cleveland - 5.5?! Did I not include Cleveland in the list of teams that should get double digit lines? Cleveland is a mess, now Anderson will be starting at QB. The Bengals are working better as a team as seen when they beat Green Bay and Pittsburgh.
San Diego @ Pittsburgh - Staying away from this one until more is known about LT and Shawne Merriman.
|BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND||-1.5||8.1||9.6||65%|
|NY GIANTS @ KANSAS CITY||9||16.8||7.8||60%|
|SAN DIEGO @ PITTSBURGH||-6.5||-1.1||5.4||58%|
|GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA||-3.5||-6.8||-3.3||58%|
|DETROIT @ CHICAGO||-10||-11.6||-1.6||57%|
|CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND||5.5||12.4||6.9||56%|
|NY JETS @ NEW ORLEANS||-7||-3.3||3.7||52%|
|TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON||-7||-8.9||-1.9||51%|
|BUFFALO @ MIAMI||2||-3.9||-5.9||50%|
|OAKLAND @ HOUSTON||-9||-6.9||2.1||50%|
|TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE||3||4.6||1.6||47%|
|DALLAS @ DENVER||3||4.5||1.5||47%|
|SEATTLE @ INDIANAPOLIS||-9||-5.7||3.3||46%|
|ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO||-9.5||-14.7||-5.2||42%|