2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 3

Just took out KC because it has been taken off the lines in most places, replaced with Pittsburgh to win by more than 4 on the road.

Pick 1: San Francisco +6.5 correct NFL point spread pick +$45.45
Pick 2: New Orleans -6 correct NFL point spread pick +$45.45
Pick 3: Chicago -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick +$45.45
Pick 4: Kansas City OFF
Pick 4: Pittsburgh -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$50

4 visiting teams, putting $50 on each game. Why $50? Kelly's formula suggests using 18% of the bank roll =~ $200, divided by 4 = $50.

I crunch the numbers and you get the picks. For those of you unfamiliar with my NFL picks table, it is very simple. Negative numbers are for the home team and positive numbers for the visiting team. A Vegas line of -6.5 on the SF @ MIN game implies the Vikings are favorite by six and a half points. Similarly for the prediction/estimate. For that same game prediction is for SF to win by ~6 points.

The Confidence percentage is a soon to be patented percentage of confidence that a pick is correct. Usually, games with confidence above 58% get special attention. If a game has no major injuries or extraneous situations, picks are made for these games. Can I assume that a Confidence under 50% would be a Confidence Rate of over 50% for the opponent? Yes, but be very careful with these predictions. This is where experience and knowledge should be used to give the green light for the pick. But you don't have to worry, I'll tell you exactly which are NFLpickles NFL picks of the week:

San Francisco @ Minnesota - The battle of the running backs! Minnesota might win, but it will be a close game.
New Orleans @ Buffalo - New Orleans wins by 10 and the way they've been playing, I don't think Buffalo can stop them. I like riding this streak trend. Buffalo is coming off a home win against Tampa Bay, woopdeedeedoo.
Chicago @ Seattle - My first reverse pick of the year. Notice the prediction is for Seattle to win by 7, but the Confidence is at 35%. Hasselbeck is beat up and Seattle may be overrated because of their 28 point win on week 1. Did I mention that was against the Rams? Cutler will finally unveil what he's made off.
Kansas City @ Philadelphia -

Staying away from: Dallas (no Barber), Washington (weaker team, could this be Detroit's week to finally end the 19-game losing streak?), Tampa Bay (another reverse pick, Tampa Bay sucks way to much for me to put money on them, especially on a reverse pick).

Below the complete table of NFL lines, spread picks, and point spread predictions for week 3, great picking!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ MINNESOTA-6.55.512.064%
NEW ORLEANS @ BUFFALO69.63.659%
CAROLINA @ DALLAS-8.5-11.3-2.858%
WASHINGTON @ DETROIT6.520.413.957%
ATLANTA @ NEW ENGLAND-42.26.255%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI420.216.254%
GREEN BAY @ ST LOUIS6.52.54.050%
TENNESSEE @ NY JETS-3-4.7-1.747%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON-3.5-3.30.247%
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO-5.5-1.34.244%
DENVER @ OAKLAND1.57.96.443%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE-13-21.9-8.943%
KANSAS CITY @ PHILADELPHIA-9.5-18.4-8.941%
INDIANAPOLIS @ ARIZONA-2.5-10.7-8.237%
CHICAGO @ SEATTLE2.5-7.4-9.935%
NY GIANTS @ TAMPA BAY6.515.38.829%

9 comments:

Steve said...

Good luck this week. Have been following you for awhile, and just want to say keep up the good work.

dtBy said...

I'm glad to see I'm at least good at predicting when you'll take the other side of one of my picks.

I have Buffalo +6.

I don't have any of your other selections this week. San Francisco +7 was a close call, but it's a definite no-play for me at +6.5.

Best of luck, regardless.

Jaime said...

dtBy,

I'm cracking up with your predictions on when you have the other side. I will be keeping track of what happens throughout the year when you disagree with me.

DDW said...

Hey Jaimie,

I discovered your site last year while I was trying to set up some statistics of my own. Anyways just wanted to let you know that my stats are alot simpler than what you probably do. My picks compared to yours are:

SF +6.5
NO -6
CHI -2.5
CIN +4

I know the cincy game seems odd, but the stats say it'll be a close game and cincy's defense looks better than previous years. Good luck this weekend!

Joel said...

I just discovered this site. I have my own statistical analysis program for picking spreads, but without all the years of data you have. Of the games you choose this week to pick on, I would only choose:

Pick 1: San Francisco +6.5
Pick 2: Bills +6
Pick 3: Chicago -2.5

As for the the Steels/Bengals game, my system tells me it is too close to make a reliable decision. If I were to choose one it would be:

Pick 4: Pittsburgh -4

Robert Alex said...

I just discovered this site. What formula do you use to get this lines if you don't mind. Thanks.

Jaime said...

dtBy,

Buffalo? The Saints are crushing this league, but don't get too excited about them, they'll have to face reality at some point.
1-0 against picks we differ. :)

Jaime said...

Robert Alex,

The lines come from sports.com or bodog. My predictions come from a "soon to be patented" secret sauce which uses offensive/defensive, point spread, week, scores, and team level stats.

dtBy said...

I actually continued to like my side on the Bills a lot.. even as they started the 4th quarter. Such is life.

I check out your site at least once every week. I'll be sure to continue showing off my secret sauce for producing fade-able picks.

Good luck.