Pick 1: San Francisco +6.5 +$45.45
Pick 2: New Orleans -6 +$45.45
Pick 3: Chicago -2.5 +$45.45
Pick 4: Pittsburgh -4 -$50
4 visiting teams, putting $50 on each game. Why $50? Kelly's formula suggests using 18% of the bank roll =~ $200, divided by 4 = $50.
I crunch the numbers and you get the picks. For those of you unfamiliar with my NFL picks table, it is very simple. Negative numbers are for the home team and positive numbers for the visiting team. A Vegas line of -6.5 on the SF @ MIN game implies the Vikings are favorite by six and a half points. Similarly for the prediction/estimate. For that same game prediction is for SF to win by ~6 points.
The Confidence percentage is a soon to be patented percentage of confidence that a pick is correct. Usually, games with confidence above 58% get special attention. If a game has no major injuries or extraneous situations, picks are made for these games. Can I assume that a Confidence under 50% would be a Confidence Rate of over 50% for the opponent? Yes, but be very careful with these predictions. This is where experience and knowledge should be used to give the green light for the pick. But you don't have to worry, I'll tell you exactly which are NFLpickles NFL picks of the week:
San Francisco @ Minnesota - The battle of the running backs! Minnesota might win, but it will be a close game.
New Orleans @ Buffalo - New Orleans wins by 10 and the way they've been playing, I don't think Buffalo can stop them. I like riding this streak trend. Buffalo is coming off a home win against Tampa Bay, woopdeedeedoo.
Chicago @ Seattle - My first reverse pick of the year. Notice the prediction is for Seattle to win by 7, but the Confidence is at 35%. Hasselbeck is beat up and Seattle may be overrated because of their 28 point win on week 1. Did I mention that was against the Rams? Cutler will finally unveil what he's made off.
Staying away from: Dallas (no Barber), Washington (weaker team, could this be Detroit's week to finally end the 19-game losing streak?), Tampa Bay (another reverse pick, Tampa Bay sucks way to much for me to put money on them, especially on a reverse pick).
Below the complete table of NFL lines, spread picks, and point spread predictions for week 3, great picking!
|SAN FRANCISCO @ MINNESOTA||-6.5||5.5||12.0||64%|
|NEW ORLEANS @ BUFFALO||6||9.6||3.6||59%|
|CAROLINA @ DALLAS||-8.5||-11.3||-2.8||58%|
|WASHINGTON @ DETROIT||6.5||20.4||13.9||57%|
|ATLANTA @ NEW ENGLAND||-4||2.2||6.2||55%|
|PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI||4||20.2||16.2||54%|
|GREEN BAY @ ST LOUIS||6.5||2.5||4.0||50%|
|TENNESSEE @ NY JETS||-3||-4.7||-1.7||47%|
|JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON||-3.5||-3.3||0.2||47%|
|MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO||-5.5||-1.3||4.2||44%|
|DENVER @ OAKLAND||1.5||7.9||6.4||43%|
|CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE||-13||-21.9||-8.9||43%|
|INDIANAPOLIS @ ARIZONA||-2.5||-10.7||-8.2||37%|
|CHICAGO @ SEATTLE||2.5||-7.4||-9.9||35%|
|NY GIANTS @ TAMPA BAY||6.5||15.3||8.8||29%|