2009 NFL Spread Picks Week 1

Week 1 NFL picks, here we go! Last year I went 0-3 on the first week, but I only relied on historical data. This, of course, is flawed because during the offseason teams make acquisitions that could impact a team so much that historical data might have to be taken with extreme caution. Because of this, stopped making picks on the first 4 weeks.

This year, I made a qualitative analysis on team acquisitions, and determined whether the team was entering the season as a stronger, weaker, or similar strength team. This would hopefully allow me to determine whether my estimate flows in the same direction as the teams. For example, if my prediction says that team A should beat the spread and team A is stronger and team B is weaker or same, then we could possibly make the bet. Lets look at the top 7 games on the table below.

DEN @ CIN - I would not touch this game. Denver is extremely weaker and Cinci looks stronger this year.

MIN @ CLE - Favre needs to put in some numbers before we can say anything about his impact to the Vikings.

PHI @ CAR - Now this is possibly an opportunity. Unfortunately, the spread today is at 2 and 2.5 in some places. The prediction is at 2.7, cutting it to short.

STL @ SEA - New QB for Seattle, lets wait and see how Hasselback performs.

WAS @ NYG - Washington's defense has been significantly improved. This prediction does not consider that, no bet.

DET @ NO - Another team with a new QB. Although a rookie, you never know how they will perform. Especially after last year having two rookie QB perform really well.

CHI @ GB: $50(-105). incorrect point spread pick -$50This is my first pick of the season and only pick for week 1. Bears are strong and looked great in the pre-season. Green Bay has a good team, but nothing major was added. Although the Bears got routed 37-3 last year at Lambeau, I think their defense will hold off better after seeing the offense produce. To win $47.52.

GameVegas LineEstimateDifferenceConfidence
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE-7.5-9.8-2.358%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS-6.5-8.7-2.258%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS-13-16.4-3.456%
NY JETS @ HOUSTON-4.5-7.0-2.553%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA-6.5-11.2-4.753%
MIAMI @ ATLANTA-4-8.5-4.553%
DALLAS @ TAMPA BAY63.8-2.248%
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE-11-21.8-10.844%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND-13-7.85.243%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND1010.60.642%


siggy said...

Jamie I too have the Bears as one of my top 3 picks of the week. Last year when we had similar choices we hit much more often than not. I also like the Pats and Tampa.

Jaime said...


The prediction is for Tampa to beat the spread, 6 seems a bit high for Dallas visiting. But confidence level not high enough, we'll see.

Looking for your Pats pick, I noticed that both Monday games are not in the table. I will add them today, and put them there. Thanks for the comments.