2009 NFL Spread Picks Week 1
Week 1 NFL picks, here we go! Last year I went 0-3 on the first week, but I only relied on historical data. This, of course, is flawed because during the offseason teams make acquisitions that could impact a team so much that historical data might have to be taken with extreme caution. Because of this, stopped making picks on the first 4 weeks.
This year, I made a qualitative analysis on team acquisitions, and determined whether the team was entering the season as a stronger, weaker, or similar strength team. This would hopefully allow me to determine whether my estimate flows in the same direction as the teams. For example, if my prediction says that team A should beat the spread and team A is stronger and team B is weaker or same, then we could possibly make the bet. Lets look at the top 7 games on the table below.
DEN @ CIN - I would not touch this game. Denver is extremely weaker and Cinci looks stronger this year.
MIN @ CLE - Favre needs to put in some numbers before we can say anything about his impact to the Vikings.
PHI @ CAR - Now this is possibly an opportunity. Unfortunately, the spread today is at 2 and 2.5 in some places. The prediction is at 2.7, cutting it to short.
STL @ SEA - New QB for Seattle, lets wait and see how Hasselback performs.
WAS @ NYG - Washington's defense has been significantly improved. This prediction does not consider that, no bet.
DET @ NO - Another team with a new QB. Although a rookie, you never know how they will perform. Especially after last year having two rookie QB perform really well.
CHI @ GB: $50(-105).
-$50This is my first pick of the season and only pick for week 1. Bears are strong and looked great in the pre-season. Green Bay has a good team, but nothing major was added. Although the Bears got routed 37-3 last year at Lambeau, I think their defense will hold off better after seeing the offense produce. To win $47.52.
This year, I made a qualitative analysis on team acquisitions, and determined whether the team was entering the season as a stronger, weaker, or similar strength team. This would hopefully allow me to determine whether my estimate flows in the same direction as the teams. For example, if my prediction says that team A should beat the spread and team A is stronger and team B is weaker or same, then we could possibly make the bet. Lets look at the top 7 games on the table below.
DEN @ CIN - I would not touch this game. Denver is extremely weaker and Cinci looks stronger this year.
MIN @ CLE - Favre needs to put in some numbers before we can say anything about his impact to the Vikings.
PHI @ CAR - Now this is possibly an opportunity. Unfortunately, the spread today is at 2 and 2.5 in some places. The prediction is at 2.7, cutting it to short.
STL @ SEA - New QB for Seattle, lets wait and see how Hasselback performs.
WAS @ NYG - Washington's defense has been significantly improved. This prediction does not consider that, no bet.
DET @ NO - Another team with a new QB. Although a rookie, you never know how they will perform. Especially after last year having two rookie QB perform really well.
CHI @ GB: $50(-105).
-$50This is my first pick of the season and only pick for week 1. Bears are strong and looked great in the pre-season. Green Bay has a good team, but nothing major was added. Although the Bears got routed 37-3 last year at Lambeau, I think their defense will hold off better after seeing the offense produce. To win $47.52.| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Difference | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DENVER @ CINCINNATI | -4 | -0.8 | 3.2 | 64% |
| MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND | 4 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 64% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ CAROLINA | 1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 60% |
| ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE | -7.5 | -9.8 | -2.3 | 58% |
| WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS | -6.5 | -8.7 | -2.2 | 58% |
| DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS | -13 | -16.4 | -3.4 | 56% |
| CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY | -3.5 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 55% |
| NY JETS @ HOUSTON | -4.5 | -7.0 | -2.5 | 53% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | -6.5 | -11.2 | -4.7 | 53% |
| MIAMI @ ATLANTA | -4 | -8.5 | -4.5 | 53% |
| DALLAS @ TAMPA BAY | 6 | 3.8 | -2.2 | 48% |
| KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | -11 | -21.8 | -10.8 | 44% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS | -7 | -4.5 | 2.5 | 40% |
| BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND | -13 | -7.8 | 5.2 | 43% |
| SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND | 10 | 10.6 | 0.6 | 42% |
Comments
The prediction is for Tampa to beat the spread, 6 seems a bit high for Dallas visiting. But confidence level not high enough, we'll see.
Looking for your Pats pick, I noticed that both Monday games are not in the table. I will add them today, and put them there. Thanks for the comments.
Jaime