Making NFL Spread Picks in 2009

Did you see the game last night? What a way to start the 2009 NFL season! I am sorry I was not able to post picks before Thursday's game, usually you will see my picks by Wednesday afternoon. I was tweaking the program that grabs all the data (I have to every beginning of the season, but now we are on auto-pilot). I am very excited for this year's NFL season for various reasons:

1) Bears have Cutler - Finally a franchise quarterback, hopefully the D is not to old now. Don't worry, my picks for the season will not be Bears biased (except for this week).
2) A new look to the blog - Thanks to the people at WebsiteTemplatesDatabase I was able to revamp the look of the blog, what do you think?
3) For the first time this year, we'll be making money bets with each pick and tracking growth and return of investement.
4) During the offseason, I had a chance to make some slight tweaks to the model and when ran against the last 7 years, the improvement was above .5% overall.

For those of you who haven't followed me in the past, here is a quick overview of what happens in this NFL point spread picks blog:
  • Different from other handicappers, I don't claim I can predict at 57%-58% or that last week I was 4-0 so you can pay me money. I put myself out there for you. If it works we all win, if it doesn't, I have to go back to the drawing board or throw the towel.
  • In breif, my theory is that you cannot go to a casino and consistently beat the house unless you cheat because they play with odds. With the NFL spread, the "price for the game" is set by people (or a collective group of people) and the price may not be necessesarilly right.
  • My statistical model to predict point spreads takes into account many factors. I provide you each week with the model's point spread prediction, a confidence level, and recommended picks that officially are kept track of in the top right table of this page.
  • In a few situations, we deep dive into a game and analyze their offensive and defensive momentums as well as point spread stats and trends.
Although, I do not officially start making picks until week 5 (to allow the model to take in significant data from this year), I will still provide the output predictions for each week. This way you can start getting familiar with the format, quickly browse results, and make appropriate decisions. I'll post week 1 spread picks later this afternoon. I would love your feedback on the games, comments, stats, etc. If there is something I have completely missed, please post a comment at the end of each blog post. Many thanks.
Lets win!