2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4

Pick 1: Baltimore +1.5 (-105) incorrect NFL point spread pick -$50
Pick 2: NY Giants -9 (-100) correct NFL point spread pick + $50
Pick 3: Minnesota -3.5 (-105) correct NFL point spread pick + $47.62
Pick 4: Chicago -10 (-105) correct NFL point spread pick + $47.62
Pick 5: Cincinnati -5.5 (-105) incorrect NFL point spread pick -$50

3 visiting teams, 2 home teams, 1 underdog. Putting $45 on each game. Why $45? Kelly's formula suggests using 18% of the bank roll =~ $225, divided by 5 = $45.

In God we trust. All others must bring data. Large amounts of it! I use 15 years of NFL Vegas lines data to come up with data-driven point spread predictions, picks and tallies of the success of this algorithmic betting strategy. So far so good this year, lets hope we keep up the good work here at NFLpickles. Enough said, here is a brief description of the picks followed by our traditional table containing point spread picks, predictions, and THE confidence measure.

Baltimore +1.5 @ New England - Baltimore seems to be getting better every week, while the Patriots are very shaky. With a weak performance against both the Bills and the Jets, the Ravens are yet to be their biggest challenge. Baltimore comfortably wins with big offense coming from 1-2-3 punch Flacco, Rice, and Mcgahee.

NY Giants -9 @ Kansas City - A single digit line on this game? Not under my watch. If Detroit, Tampa Bay, or KC are playing a playoff contender and the line is not in double digits, I'm all over it like a donkey on a waffle.

Green Bay @ Minnesota -3.5 - Favre better than anyone, will read GB defensive plays and capitalize on his knowledge of the Packers' strategy. Big win in SF gives them momentum. Although both teams have had weak schedules so far, I see the Vikings winning by at least 7.

Detroit @ Chicago -10 - Another Bears pick? You might ask. Yes, but I don't feel comfortable. Lets face it, Detroit will lose this game. There is very little chance that they will come out from a 19-game losing streak and win 2 in a row. But will they lose by more than 10? Prediction says 11.5 so its close, but over the 10-point line. I'm not so worried about Forte's injury since he hasn't done much this year and Adrian Peterson could end up being a better RB.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland - 5.5?! Did I not include Cleveland in the list of teams that should get double digit lines? Cleveland is a mess, now Anderson will be starting at QB. The Bengals are working better as a team as seen when they beat Green Bay and Pittsburgh.

San Diego @ Pittsburgh - Staying away from this one until more is known about LT and Shawne Merriman.


GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND-1.58.19.665%
NY GIANTS @ KANSAS CITY916.87.860%
SAN DIEGO @ PITTSBURGH-6.5-1.15.458%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA-3.5-6.8-3.358%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO-10-11.6-1.657%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND5.512.46.956%
NY JETS @ NEW ORLEANS-7-3.33.752%
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON-7-8.9-1.951%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI2-3.9-5.950%
OAKLAND @ HOUSTON-9-6.92.150%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE34.61.647%
DALLAS @ DENVER34.51.547%
SEATTLE @ INDIANAPOLIS-9-5.73.346%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO-9.5-14.7-5.242%

15 comments:

Joel said...

I agree with these 4 picks.

Pick 1: Baltimore +1.5
Pick 2: NY Giants -9
Pick 4: Chicago -10
Pick 5: Cincinnati -5.5


Not sure about Packers and Vikings game. Think this one could go either way.

If I was worried about a pick, it would be Cincinnati. Anderson was so sporadic last season I don't know what will happen with him in.

I believe Cutler will eventually get going here for Chicago. I don't see the lions having many more close games this season to be honest.

DDW said...

Hey Jamie,

Great week last week...Congrats!
Here's my comparision with your picks:

BAL +1.5
NYG -9
GB +3.5
DET +10
CIN -5.5

GB vs MIN - both teams have average defenses..so I think it will go back and forth most of the night. I believe GB will squeek into that 3.5 spread.

DET vs CHI - detroit is just bad..their pass defense is horrible. I really have no explanation for this pick other than the numbers telling me they cover 10.

Good luck this week!

dtBy said...

No differences to report this week.
You have a couple games I like, but not well enough to wager. I did get the Ravens +2, early.

For anyone looking to fade me, my best pick this week was the Raiders +9.5 (+9 is still widely available.)

Good luck!

Jaime said...

Joel and DDW both disagree with me on the MNF pick. What a great game it's going to be regardless. Detroit DDW? I don't think so. Watch Bears defense explode and Cutler hitting 4 TD, 2 to Greg Olsen.

dtBy I like your Oakland pick. Nine points for Houston sure sounds very high. My confidence will not allow me to pick this game, but the prediction is in your direction.

Joel said...

DtBy,

Sunday the Texans will shine, while the Raiders implode haha.

I'll take the Texans -9.5.

DDW said...

Jaime,

I know Detroit doesn't look like a good pick and i'm fairly sure i'm not going play that game. I don't think kevin smith is playing for DET and if that's true, i'm definitely not playing this game.

Jaime said...

All of you agreed with my BAL pick, what happened? The Bears really stepped up today, that was exciting. Looking forward to MNF, go Vikings, a 3-2 week would be much better than 2-3.

dtBy said...

At least I've maintained my perfect "no winners" record on your blog. Makes it super easy to fade me.

Jaime said...

dtBy,

You should keep telling us your pick because reversing your picks could be a winning strategy :) What do you think of tonight's game, Vikings or Packers, who covers?

dtBy said...

I have tonight's line figured at Vikings -5, way too close to the -4.5 on offer. My money and I are going to sit this one out. I suppose if I had to pick, I'd take the Vikings.

Joel said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Joel said...

If I had to pick, I'd go with Packers +5.5 which is the current line on Bodog as of right now.

Jaime said...

Wow, the line has shifter quite significantly since early this week. Yes, now its at 5 or 5.5 depending where you look. I was in at 3.5 earlier in the week. I say Vikings by 7.

dtBy said...

If I could find +5.5 in town, I might make a small wager on it. I hadn't intended to check the sportsbooks while I was out, but I guess I will now.

Fading me is not so easy when I take both sides in posts not more than 20 minutes apart.

Jaime said...

Did I say Vikings by 7?