2009 NFL Spread Picks Week 2

NFL Week 2 spread/line picks:
Pick 1: San Francisco -1.5correct NFL point spread pick +$47.62
Pick 2: Oakland +3 correct NFL point spread pick +$47.62


I'll do the stats you get the picks. You could disagree with me. Post a comment and tell me why? Usually when someone disagrees with me I get a correct pick.

Last week's pick was no good. I live in Chicago, and adviced that I was being biased putting my overly excited emotions about Cutler on the line. Oh boy, but how fast things change. No Urlacher for the rest of the season! Who is going to lead that defense? The Steelers also lost a key player in Polamalu so would you say these cancel each other out?

Look at the table of predictions below, it is predicting PIT by 26! That estimate is carrying heavy weight on the Steelers last few games including last year's playoffs and Super Bowl. Too many variables going on, need more data, stay away. Hopefully the model is wrong and the Bears win their first regular season game.

The one game I am excited and surprised at the spread is the San Francisco game. San Fran is my top pick for the week, although I will suggest one more (even though I shouldn't this early in the season). Playing at home, a young and eager squad will stop stop Hasselbeck, LT, and the rest of the oldies in Seattle. Plus they won by 28 last week, but they played a weak team. Decreasing the amount of the bet from Kelly's formula since we are only on week 2, the wager is again $50(-105).

Oakland looked well Monday Night. They should have won the game and they know it. The prediction is Oakland wins by 5 and they're underdogs by 3. A wager of $50(-105) for this game as well is entered.

The Tennessee/Houston game is better to stay away for now. Tennessee's defense is yet to be tested, Houston could be a stronger team this season.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasCover Pct
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO-1.5-5.3-3.866%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE-6.5-7.8-1.358%
ST LOUIS @ WASHINGTON-9.5-11.1-1.657%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY-35.68.657%
PITTSBURGH @ CHICAGO326.223.254%
CLEVELAND @ DENVER-3-9.8-6.854%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA-6-9.7-3.753%
ARIZONA @ JACKSONVILLE-318.021.050%
BALTIMORE @ SAN DIEGO-315.518.550%
CINCINNATI @ GREEN BAY-96.815.850%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS-3-5.3-2.347%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS3.54.71.246%
INDIANAPOLIS @ MIAMI3-1.0-4.044%
NEW ORLEANS @ PHILADELPHIA0-8.8-8.841%
TAMPA BAY @ BUFFALO-56.311.339%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT1018.68.637%


Good vibes!

10 comments:

siggy said...

I had a terrible Week 1. Hopefully we bounce back. I like both of your selections this week and for what its worth I like Oakland a little better. My best pick of the week is Carolina +6 1/2. Good luck.

siggy said...

Jamie 2 great calls and you advised staying away from Tenn. and Wash. and Pitt.Oakland was lucky but sometimes it just works that way. Keep up the good work. As for my picks I'll leave that for another day.

Jaime said...

Siggy,

Luck will always play a role in football; they flip a coin to decide who gets the ball on overtime! What I hope is to filter out as much of it as possible and come out with solid picks.

Thanks for your great comments, and keep posting your picks, I keep track of them as well!

Grant said...

Trying to follow your picks. Not sure how the pos+ and neg- work. Is it possible to bold all the model's picks for each game.

Jaime said...

Grant,

I was thinking of writing a post to the new readers on how to read the table. Here is a quick explanation.

Basically, negative is for the home team and positive for the visiting team. For example, the Cleveland @ Denver game, the spread was -3, which means Denver was favorite by 3. The prediction was -9.8, so model predicted Denver to win by 9.8 points. We now know that Denver won by 21, i.e. result=-21.

dtBy said...

Long time reader, first time commenter. Don't agree more than half of the time, but you're on my list of sites to which I refer for interesting information.

I'm curious how you got to +45 this week. Are you just rounding off the extra cents on your wins?

Also, any chance you'll take a look at totals?

Thanks for the blog.

Jaime said...

dtBy,

Thanks for the positive feedback. For display purposes, yes I round to the nearest dollars, but when making the calculations, I do not round.

What do you mean by taking a look at totals?

dtBy said...

By totals I meant what are commonly referred to as over/under numbers.

I tend to find a lot more value in these, although it takes longer for my modeling to square with reality. I don't generally make any total bets until at least week 4.

I'm not sure how your modeling works and if that's something you could easily extract from your results.

By the way, reading over my comment, "I don't agree with you more than half the time" may sound a bit snarky. I assure you that was not intended. Where we disagree, you're probably a 7:5 favorite to have the right side.

All the best.

Jaime said...

Ok, over/under. I have the data. I've spent so much time on the spreads, I fear the day that I put my head on creating a statistical model for over/under. My feeling is that it is a completely different ball game and I would need lots of research and testing before I can try to find opportunities in totals.

dtBy, I encourage people to disagree with me. Let me know when you do to see if the 7:5 odds you propose holds up these year. :)

dtBy said...

I just realized I used "disagree" in two different senses in the same sentence. About half the time, I disagree either because I like the other side OR consider it a no-play. The 7:5 applies to specifically to those cases where I like the other side.

I've already got my initial plays in for the weekend.. and I'm pretty sure you'll have the other side of one of them.. so I'll be commenting later this week!