2009 NFL Spread Pick Season

This experiment/blog is now going for its 3rd year live, 5th year since I started tinkering with NFL spread data on my laptop. I have thought of just doing it on my computer without sharing my picks(mainly to save time), but there are a few of you that write to me and look forward to my picks. So I'm back this year!

Over the years, I have succeeded and I have failed, but in total I have a 56% prediction rate that I hope to improve. Using your suggestions and some statistical knowledge of my own, I have come up with a model, a method to choose games with higher likelihood of a correct pick. This model uses historical data dating back to 1997. At the team level, the model uses offense, defense, scores, team rankings/strength, W-L records, and NFL week(categorized into 4, beginning, middle, end, and playoffs) among other factors.

Leave Your Comments
Your comments are very valuable to me. If the method predicts a team, I would love to hear your arguments for or against the pick. Along with each pick, I write about offense/defense trends, injuries, consensus estimates, and point spread moves, anything of value that one should consider before making the pick. If you have any new information that you think should be considered for a pick that I did not talk about please place a comment.

New This Year
On the top right hand corner of the page, I keep my post week 4 record. We wait until after week 4 to generate enough data for the model to pick up trends. This year we are keeping track of a bankroll.

A successful betting strategy is not just about making the correct picks, its about managing your money. Kelly's formula determines optimal betting sizes. The gambler's ruin problem tells us that if we run out of money before the season is over, that's it game over, regardless of whether you had a perfect record on the playoffs. So this year, I will keep track of a bankroll as well. $1,000 in the bank! The betting size will be determined each week and the appropriate changes to it according to the NFL picks.

I look forward to your input, Favre's deterioration, Cutler's MVP, Vick's benchwarming, and Monday nights.


Mike d. said…
Glad you're back for another year. I think last season was an "off" year, which are bound to occur. I have a good feeling about this year.
siggy said…
Great to see you back. I am looking forward to another year of your excellent selections and discussions.
Let the games begin.
stephen said…
looking forward to another interesting season.