Pick 2: St Louis -3
Pick 3: KC -7.5
Pick 4: Tennessee +3.5
Pick 5: Pittsburgh 0
As we continue our slump this year, I keep reminding myself that this is a long-term strategy and not a get rich quick scheme. Yes, last year was nice because we started something like 9-2, but we fell. This year, the hopes are now that the great weeks are about to come.
This week, all home teams are favorites or its a straight pick (i.e. spread is zero). So, no home underdogs picks. I do like what I see in this week's picks. One thing that stood out to me was that the KC, TEN, and PIT games, the predicted spread is off by more than 10 points than the Vegas spread. Why do you think this is? Is NO overrated? KC being 5-1 ATS, are they still underrated against a weak Buffalo team? Detroit is favorite this week! I wonder when was the last time that happened. Being 5-1 ATS helps. Couple of games I would stay away is Dallas and Minnesota.
I continue my best effort to provide the best NFL spread picks data can answer and an optimal betting strategy to go along with it. Unfortunately, our bankroll has decreased 11% since we started so bumping the week's bankroll use to 20% leave us with approximately $360 for the week, $72 a game.
Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 8 of 2010.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIAMI @ CINCINNATI | 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 61.4% |
| CAROLINA @ ST LOUIS | -3 | -18.9 | -15.9 | 59.0% |
| BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY | -7.5 | -21.4 | -13.9 | 58.3% |
| TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO | -3.5 | 11.2 | 14.7 | 57.0% |
| PITTSBURGH @ NEW ORLEANS | 0 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 56.9% |
| HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS | -5.5 | -3.4 | 2.1 | 55.6% |
| MINNESOTA @ NEW ENGLAND | -6 | -5.3 | 0.7 | 55.0% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ DALLAS | -6.5 | -11.7 | -5.2 | 53.3% |
| TAMPA BAY @ ARIZONA | -3 | -5.5 | -2.5 | 52.9% |
| GREEN BAY @ NY JETS | -6 | -8.2 | -2.2 | 50.1% |
| SEATTLE @ OAKLAND | -2.5 | -3.8 | -1.3 | 45.0% |
| WASHINGTON @ DETROIT | -2.5 | -3.5 | -1 | 45.0% |
| SAN FRANCISCO - DENVER | 0 | -10.4 | -10.4 | off-London |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
The past four weeks, I have posted my "unofficial" NFL point spread picks. I use the first 4 weeks to get data and study how changes in rosters have affected the teams. Previously, I didn't post picks until week 5, but people have asked for them so I have put them out there. My week 1-4 picks have consistently been terrible (which makes me think to do the opposite :). This year has been no different.