NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

What a great week last week! We hit 2 of 3 picks plus #MNF Detroit +3.5 and Jets +8. We plan to go bigger this week with research and results. 

You can access ALL my picks exclusively on Rokfin. For a super low $9.99/mo subscription, you also get a lot of other cool sports content. Make sure to hit ENDORSE on channel though :)

Free pick of the week!

Cincinnati +3.5
Gotta love that half a point in there! You'd might be thinking that Jacksonville is great and Minshew is doing a great job. They are in a way but did you know they have the same ATS record (3-3) this year? AJ Green and Dennard could be back this week. My models are picking up something off here. 90% of the money is going to Jacksonville, looks like a good contrarian play to me. Homedogs are barking

Unlock access to winning week 7 picks based off our machine learning point spread situational models and 12 years experience. Let's make money together...

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

We're going to go 3-0 this week! You can access all my picks and short podcast exclusively on Rokfin. You can access them there plus you get a bunch of other awesome sports content (e.g. MMA prediction picks) with one $9.99/mo subscription. Make sure to endorse my channel though :)

SEATTLE -1.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Models are picking up on the Cleveland hype. I hear a lot they got talent, but with 4 TD and 9 INT, it doesn't look like Baker is forming into a great NFL QB. Russel Wilson on the other hand, is a Super Bowl winner. Cleveland coming off short rest and Seattle from TNF makes it even sweeter. Need one good trend? How about this one: Seattle when visiting as favorite is 62% in last 15 games. Give me the much better team and coach.

NEW ENGLAND -16.5 correct NFL point spread pick

UGH, 16 and a half points. But hey these big spreads have been covered 4 of 5 times this year. Also, on Thursdays the favorites by more than 10 cover the spread 80% of the time in the last 20 games! The Giants without Barkley or Gallman bringing a 3rd string RB will probably have to depend on Daniel Jones who's got 4TD on 3 INT and tanking. Give me the dominant team, money!

KANSAS CITY -4.5 

Why isn't this 7 or even 10? Seems like an over-reaction to Mahomes ankle, last week loss to the Colts and last week's Houston w53 point win against the Falcon. Lots of inefficiencies put together. Tyreek Hill might be back. At home, these Chiefs bounce back for a must win. Money!


Here are the outputs of the NFL almost patent pending machine learning situational analytics and confidence percentages for week 6.


Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
SEATTLE @ CLEVELAND 1.5 9.4 7.9 63.6
NY GIANTS @ NEW ENGLAND -16.5 -24.3 -8.1 59.3
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY -4.5 -17.2 -12.7 58.8
DALLAS @ NY JETS 8.5 -0.2 -8.7 56.6
WASHINGTON @ MIAMI 3.5 -6.9 -10.4 55.6
SAN FRANCISCO @ LA RAMS -3.5 6.3 9.8 54.9
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -2.0 -4.4 -2.3 52.5
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -11.5 -5.2 6.3 51.3
NEW ORLEANS @ JACKSONVILLE -1.0 3.8 4.8 50.3
PHILADELPHIA @ MINNESOTA -3.0 10.5 13.4 49.1
TENNESSEE @ DENVER -2.5 9.6 12.1 49.1
ATLANTA @ ARIZONA 2.5 2.3 -0.25 48.8
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY -4.5 8.1 12.6 44.4
PITTSBURGH @ LA CHARGERS -6.5 1.4 7.9 NA

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

All official 2019 picks are going up exclusively on my Rokfin channel. This is to support what I do just as you'd support your favorite friend doing you a favor. In this case give you winning picks based on data science. It's time to crank it up and make some money!

Models are starting to pick up on trends happening this year. Using 20 years of situational data to understand when models best perform, NFLpickles matches these to current games to find those with highest situational probability of success.


You can access all my picks for the whole season for $9.99 a month. And you can cancel (or start) at any time. That's only a total of $50 for the 2019 NFL Season including Playoffs and Super Bowl (I'm 11-1 ATS in last 12 Super Bowls). I personally bet a whole lot more than that so verifying my picks with an experienced PhD data scientist isn't a bad idea.


BONUS CONTENT

With $9.99 per month you also get access not only to my picks but to other expert picks. There's also a good library of great MMA content from fighters like Ben Askren and Jordan Burroughs that you might find interesting. It's a growing network too so who knows which other sites would bundle their subscription services with this one. Go learn about the RAE token.

Here are week 5 NFLpickles machine learning situational optimization picks:


LA RAMS +1.5 
correct NFL point spread pick

Not a big fan of betting the visiting team on TNF since home team is 56% ATS when favorite. On the other hand, in divisional games visitors are 55% ATS in last 10 years (140 games) when home is favorite by less than 3. Rams lost by 15 last week and Rams not been favorite here seems like an over correction to last week. #inefficiencyFound

CHICAGO -5  

Is Chase Daniel that different from Trubisky? IDK, but he's never really gotten a chance to play. When he has, well he has a 70% completion rate and more touchdowns than interceptions. That's all the Bears defense needs (#1 in turnovers and allowing 11.2 points per game) to take over. Favorites are 61%ATS on neutral sites.

LA CHARGERS -6.5
Check this out, when the line is equal to 6.5 for home team, they cover a whopping 64% ATS (87 games sample). Add a divisional constraint and it jumps close to 70. Melvin Gordon is back and the Chargers are going to be pumped against a very weak Denver defense.

JAGUARS +3.5

Garnder Minshew secretly has 7 TDs to 1 INT. Check this stat out, Visitors are 58% ATS (on 132 games) when the spread is exactly 3.5. I'm not ready to bet on Kyle Allen. The Jaguars almost top 10 rushing defense should somewhat control McCaffrey, keep the game close and cover or have another upset last minute miracle.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
LA RAMS @ SEATTLE -1.5 5.0 6.5 68.7
OAKLAND - CHICAGO -5.0 -11.1 -6.1 63.0
DENVER @ LA CHARGERS -6.5 -9.0 -2.5 59.0
JACKSONVILLE @ CAROLINA -3.5 -3.0 0.5 58.5
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -3.5 -9.1 -5.7 57.5
GREEN BAY @ DALLAS -3.5 -2.6 0.9 55.5
NEW ENGLAND @ WASHINGTON 15.5 -6.7 -22.2 54.6
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH 3.5 5.5 2.0 54.1
CLEVELAND @ SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 -8.5 -4.9 50.0
ATLANTA @ HOUSTON -5.0 6.4 11.3 49.4
BUFFALO @ TENNESSEE -3.0 -0.9 2.1 49.2
NY JETS @ PHILADELPHIA -13.5 -13.4 0.1 48.3
MINNESOTA @ NY GIANTS 5.5 3.6 -1.9 45.6
ARIZONA @ CINCINNATI -3.5 -14.5 -10.9 NA