NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

All official 2019 picks are going up exclusively on my Rokfin channel. This is to support what I do just as you'd support your favorite friend doing you a favor. In this case give you winning picks based on data science. It's time to crank it up and make some money!

Models are starting to pick up on trends happening this year. Using 20 years of situational data to understand when models best perform, NFLpickles matches these to current games to find those with highest situational probability of success.

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Here are week 5 NFLpickles machine learning situational optimization picks:

LA RAMS +1.5 
correct NFL point spread pick

Not a big fan of betting the visiting team on TNF since home team is 56% ATS when favorite. On the other hand, in divisional games visitors are 55% ATS in last 10 years (140 games) when home is favorite by less than 3. Rams lost by 15 last week and Rams not been favorite here seems like an over correction to last week. #inefficiencyFound


Is Chase Daniel that different from Trubisky? IDK, but he's never really gotten a chance to play. When he has, well he has a 70% completion rate and more touchdowns than interceptions. That's all the Bears defense needs (#1 in turnovers and allowing 11.2 points per game) to take over. Favorites are 61%ATS on neutral sites.

Check this out, when the line is equal to 6.5 for home team, they cover a whopping 64% ATS (87 games sample). Add a divisional constraint and it jumps close to 70. Melvin Gordon is back and the Chargers are going to be pumped against a very weak Denver defense.


Garnder Minshew secretly has 7 TDs to 1 INT. Check this stat out, Visitors are 58% ATS (on 132 games) when the spread is exactly 3.5. I'm not ready to bet on Kyle Allen. The Jaguars almost top 10 rushing defense should somewhat control McCaffrey, keep the game close and cover or have another upset last minute miracle.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
LA RAMS @ SEATTLE -1.5 5.0 6.5 68.7
OAKLAND - CHICAGO -5.0 -11.1 -6.1 63.0
DENVER @ LA CHARGERS -6.5 -9.0 -2.5 59.0
JACKSONVILLE @ CAROLINA -3.5 -3.0 0.5 58.5
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -3.5 -9.1 -5.7 57.5
GREEN BAY @ DALLAS -3.5 -2.6 0.9 55.5
NEW ENGLAND @ WASHINGTON 15.5 -6.7 -22.2 54.6
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH 3.5 5.5 2.0 54.1
CLEVELAND @ SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 -8.5 -4.9 50.0
ATLANTA @ HOUSTON -5.0 6.4 11.3 49.4
BUFFALO @ TENNESSEE -3.0 -0.9 2.1 49.2
NY JETS @ PHILADELPHIA -13.5 -13.4 0.1 48.3
MINNESOTA @ NY GIANTS 5.5 3.6 -1.9 45.6
ARIZONA @ CINCINNATI -3.5 -14.5 -10.9 NA